.22lr bubble?

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Stercutus
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Re: .22lr bubble?

Post by Stercutus » Thu Feb 12, 2015 8:34 pm

ultra magnus wrote:
SMoAF wrote:I've sold a decent chunk of .22LR in the past few years for positively STUPID prices. Unless you're completely out and NEED .22LR to take your kid to the range this weekend, it's insane to be stocking up at these prices. I mean, come on. Some people are paying (I saw crazy ($90/333rd) prices at a show in January) more per round of .22LR than you can get .223 or 9mm for. Its nuts. On top of that, people are paying more for one brick of .22LR than I recently paid for a metal stripped AR lower on sale. It's nuts. Once it gets back to $20 a brick I'll start restocking slowly. Once a brick hits $15, I'll start being a bit more aggressive. Once it hits $12 again, I'll start getting very aggressive.

Right now, I'm throwing money at AR items, since AR manufacturers are busy figuratively cutting each other's throats financially. The standard financial philosophy of "buy low, sell high" applies. Of course, I'm not buying lowers to sell. What I'm doing at this point is stocking up, so once I die, my kids die, my great-great grandkids die, THEIR kids will each get an AR from their "Great-whatever-Grandpa SMoAF's Trust". I mean, come on. Which makes better sense? $50 for a brick of .22LR, or $50 for a stripped AR lower? Does ANYBODY think that the brick of ammo is a better deal? Anybody???

So you are never restocking? 22-26 was the norm pre panic. If you are thinking it will get lower than that you are in for a disappointment.
I don't know about that. I was shooting 550 rd boxes from early 2007 last month that were $9.99. Winchester blue box. That was before the big run up in metals prices that has since mostly retreated.
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Re: .22lr bubble?

Post by shooterm » Thu Feb 12, 2015 8:38 pm

The new 300ish bricks should be around $15. The 500ish was $22 to $25. What do I know though I cant remember that far back.

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Re: .22lr bubble?

Post by Stercutus » Thu Feb 12, 2015 8:51 pm

Me neither, that is why I keep records.
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Re: .22lr bubble?

Post by SMoAF » Fri Feb 13, 2015 1:15 am

ultra magnus wrote: So you are never restocking? 22-26 was the norm pre panic. If you are thinking it will get lower than that you are in for a disappointment.
Well, I've been putting it aside a fair bit for quite a while, due to some projects and guns I thought I'd eventually purchase. Unfortunately, I hadn't bought a pre-sample AM180 when I gave up my FFL/SOT in '99. The old standard was $0.02 a round in what they call a "bulk pack", but the price of lead skyrocketed, and then the 2008 ammo shortage came along. I've got 40+ of what I consider to be a "bulk pack", but I ran out of .30 ammo cans, so I just left the ammo I bought in the original packaging. Those are what I sold off, and I've only sold 2 of the full ammo cans to people I like but who aren't really gun nuts. Consequently, I'm not terribly concerned. If I went ahead and bought a .22LR conversion for one or two of my transferrable SMGs, I might be a little bit concerned and seriously start restocking at $0.035/rd, but I'm not overly worried about it. As it currently stands, if I don't convert a SMG and stick to semi-only .22LR, realistically I've got enough to last not only my lifetime, but my kid's lifetimes, too.

Back in 2009, I set my personal "buy price" for metal AR stripped lowers at $50 a pop, and I put aside funds for when it happened. You've no idea how many people thought I was nuts, and that it'd never happen, ever. Guess what just recently happened? I bought enough lowers to almost certainly provide an AR lower to each and every one of my great grandkids, assuming that each of my descendants have at least 3 kids apiece, and none are prohibited from owning an EBR. I know one naysayer who bought a couple of them at $350 a pop shortly after Newtown, because he KNEW that they'd never be lower.

One of the great things about the free market is that everybody can put their own values on things they'd like to buy or sell. I've got my values, and you've got yours. As long as you're not trying to force me to buy what you're selling for more than what I'm willing to pay, it's all good.

Oh, and BTW: if you're willing to pay $250 for a stripped AR lower, I know a guy that'd be THRILLED to legally sell you one. He'd probably be willing to not only pay shipping, but also pick up the FFL's fee and sales tax, too. ;) :lol:
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Re: .22lr bubble?

Post by Halfapint » Fri Feb 13, 2015 2:46 am

Went in to my LGS when picking up my knew 9mm, and asked if they had .22lr, they had nearly 100 boxes of the mini mags no limit, lots of 333rd boxes of winchester limit 5, and some 50 boxes (can't remember brand) of the 555 limit 3.... Hey had misc other brands in varying counts but.... But here in Seattle area we are stocked full of .22lr
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Re: .22lr bubble?

Post by 00dlez » Fri Feb 13, 2015 9:13 am

Not so much the price, but the availability, makes me glad I didn't get a .22 "trainer" pistol before getting a center fire HD pistol. Cheaper/easier to practice, sure, but I've put more 9mm down range this year than I've been able to even find in .22, much less shoot.
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Re: .22lr bubble?

Post by mr_slappy75 » Fri Feb 13, 2015 11:49 am

Well, N. Illinois is still spotty at best. LGS and “Boutique” Outfitters (read Bass Pro & Cabela’s) get few and far between and prices are on the higher side of $0.20 + a round.

I cannot remember the last time a saw a brick (333 or 525) anywhere near me or 50 round packs under oh I’d say 19.95?

Now that I finally got my FOID card from the State and can seriously start looking at buying firearms, this whole thing is severely putting a crimp on my plans of having the first firearm I own in 20 years be an investment on a rimfire re-training platform for myself / teaching tool for Mrs. Slappy and future 1st rifle or handgun for Slappy Jr.

Like many have said before, I might as well go for the 9mm HD handgun first at this point since it makes more economical sense. I mean seriously, it is like the shortage of .22 ammo has also affecting pricing on the firearms as well. I know that Cabela's always trend pricier but a plain-jane S&W M&P 15-22 for $500.00 (Allegedly ON SALE from $699.00! Seriously?!? :roll: )


I really also need to the 'help me build my AR' thread and read up on this inexpensive availability of stripped lowers.
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Re: .22lr bubble?

Post by Mikeyboy » Fri Feb 13, 2015 2:42 pm

mr_slappy75 wrote:Well, N. Illinois is still spotty at best. LGS and “Boutique” Outfitters (read Bass Pro & Cabela’s) get few and far between and prices are on the higher side of $0.20 + a round.

I cannot remember the last time a saw a brick (333 or 525) anywhere near me or 50 round packs under oh I’d say 19.95?

Now that I finally got my FOID card from the State and can seriously start looking at buying firearms, this whole thing is severely putting a crimp on my plans of having the first firearm I own in 20 years be an investment on a rimfire re-training platform for myself / teaching tool for Mrs. Slappy and future 1st rifle or handgun for Slappy Jr.

Like many have said before, I might as well go for the 9mm HD handgun first at this point since it makes more economical sense. I mean seriously, it is like the shortage of .22 ammo has also affecting pricing on the firearms as well. I know that Cabela's always trend pricier but a plain-jane S&W M&P 15-22 for $500.00 (Allegedly ON SALE from $699.00! Seriously?!? :roll: )


I really also need to the 'help me build my AR' thread and read up on this inexpensive availability of stripped lowers.
Yeah, I am noticing a bit of blow back with some .22lr gun prices. I ordered a Ruger SR-22 literally days before Sandy Hook happened and the ammo panic started and I paid $365 for that gun. Now you can buy one for $320 sometimes even $300. Same with Walter P22 and Beretta 21a Bobcats, they are selling in the high $200 range. Even some higher end .22lr are dropping in price. Before buying that Ruger SR-22 back in Dec 2012, I really eyeballed those Browning 1911-22, but I could not justify paying $650 for one...now they are about $475.

Ironically I have been eyeballing that little Ruger Bearcat Shopkeeper. When they introduced it in 2013 MSRP was 650 it was retailing for $600...and that prices has steady dropped to $500 locally, and a $480 online maybe $20 more than what a regular Bearcat sells for. I am real tempted to snatch that sucker, before the prices creep back up.

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Re: .22lr bubble?

Post by minengr » Sat Feb 21, 2015 2:18 am

I haven't seen any near me in any significant amount in quite awhile. Although, I rarely remember to look. I'm fairly certain that supply and prices will return to something resembling normal, but I don't know when. I remember several years back when SR primers were selling for stupid money when none were available. They still aren't everywhere, but they aren't selling for $80/box either.

Just don't buy into the BS rumors. I've heard many and only one made any kind of sense and I don't think it was true either. I love hearing the one about the smelter shutting down and the epa shutting down the lead mines.
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Re: .22lr bubble?

Post by Doctorr Fabulous » Sat Feb 21, 2015 10:41 am

minengr wrote: I love hearing the one about the smelter shutting down and the epa shutting down the lead mines.
There was a smelter that shut down, because they had been given twenty years or so to comply with EPA regs, and finally called it quits after half a century of poisoning the local area.

Crypto has a great post on it here: viewtopic.php?p=2462983#p2462983
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Re: .22lr bubble?

Post by minengr » Sat Feb 21, 2015 10:18 pm

Doctorr Fabulous wrote:
minengr wrote: I love hearing the one about the smelter shutting down and the epa shutting down the lead mines.
There was a smelter that shut down, because they had been given twenty years or so to comply with EPA regs, and finally called it quits after half a century of poisoning the local area.

Crypto has a great post on it here: viewtopic.php?p=2462983#p2462983
Yes, I'm familiar with the smelter and I posted in that thread. I'm also betting I'm the only person here that's been in one of those lead mines. IIRC the smelter closed because the cost to make it compliant was around $100 million and after 150 years of mining there isn't much lead left.
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Re: .22lr bubble?

Post by Mikeyboy » Fri Feb 27, 2015 4:12 pm

Here is the kicker with that theory. There is lead in other bullets...so why only .22lr. There is no shortage of .38 LRN and that has more lead per box than .22lr.

Also why is it still real easy to get .17hmr. .22wmr is a little difficult but still easier to find than .22lr. Both rimfires are harder to manufacture than .22lr and have more powder and metal per round.

Its all supply and demand of .22lr. I was in a Cabela's today watching people getting excited and clamoring over high priced ($3.99) 50 round boxes of .22lr Remington Thunderbolts. The only way you will see a slowdown in demand is if .22lr increases in price significantly.

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Re: .22lr bubble?

Post by NamelessStain » Sat Feb 28, 2015 8:58 am

We recently had a PSA store and Gander Mtn. open up. The .22LR was gone in 1-2 hours. No limit and people paid $50 for a 500 brick. The demand is still high, so the prices will remain high. I have enough .22LR for my uses, so I only look for friends who need some. I ask them what they are willing to pay and maybe pick up a brick or 2 for them if I can find it.

Lead is not the issue. It's imported cheaply since other countries don't have all the EPA/OSHA stuff to deal with and many have way cheap labor. It definitely wouldn't double the cost of what it was a few years ago.
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Re: .22lr bubble?

Post by 0122358 » Sat Feb 28, 2015 9:29 pm

I bought a 555 round box of .22 for 26 bucks. Limit one, but still.
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Re: .22lr bubble?

Post by Mikeyboy » Mon Mar 16, 2015 11:10 am

Cabela's had Remington Thunderbolt 500 round pack for $27. Even though the store was packed with people buying ammo, that ammo even at that price seemed to be just sitting there and not flying off the shelves. It was the most .22lr ammo I have seen in a store in a long time and most people (including myself) passed on it. Remington Thunderbolt is crap ammo and real bad on pistols. I think some people here and there probably still buy a box because they are just desperate or didn't care, but its a good sign that most shooters maybe at this point know better and if they are going to shoot and stock up on .22lr ammo, at least get decent ammo, not something that is going to have a lot of duds and foul up your barrel. .

That said I'm still thinking if they put out CCI mini mags in 500 round boxes and sold them for $60, people today would still buy them like hotcakes. I bought a 40 round box of American Eagle .22lr ammo at my range for $4, and didn't bat an eye. I rather just buy it then dip in my stash. It seems for decent bulk .22lr ammo paying 10 cents a round, and paying 12 cents around for good .22lr ammo is the new norm....if you can find it. I think the bubble will burst when 14 cents a round or half the cost of bulk 9mm ammo is the norm for .22lr.

After panics and gas getting as high as $5 a gallon, we kind of got used to paying over $1.99 for gas...we even got excited when it when gas prices where under $3. Everyone will forget that a decade ago we use to pay $1.50 for a gallon of gas and $12 for a brick of .22 ammo. In a few years from now no one will even know what a brick of .22 ammo is, since 500 rounds will probably peak at $75 and come down and level out around $60. Everyone will just buy 50 and 100 round boxes.

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