When will prices return to normal?

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When will prices return to normal?

Post by Mr_Dove » Wed Jan 16, 2013 1:51 pm

Apparently the president announced today that he will allow congress to work on gun control issues rather than imposing them via Executive Order.

Assuming that congress gridlocks, as usual, will gun prices return to normal any time soon? Will the buying frenzy continue for the foreseeable future?

I don't currently own a rifle but my current finances don't allow for it. I'm hoping that A bit more time might allow me to save up.

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Re: When will prices return to normal?

Post by Doctorr Fabulous » Wed Jan 16, 2013 1:54 pm

Mr_Dove wrote: Assuming that congress gridlocks, as usual, will gun prices return to normal any time soon?
No.
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Re: When will prices return to normal?

Post by Wildeman_13 » Wed Jan 16, 2013 1:55 pm

Prices will normalize over the next few months. Congress stated that any gun control laws will be minor or non-existent as several Dems support the Reps stance of no new gun control laws at least for now. Once the rush is over, you will most likely get a good deal from someone who bought 15 AR lowers and now doesn't know what to do with them.

The big issue that could be coming in several states is the magazine limits. NY obviously already passed their laws limiting mags to 7 rounds. We shall see how it all plays out, but over all prices should start to drop middle of next month I would say.
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Re: When will prices return to normal?

Post by crypto » Wed Jan 16, 2013 2:05 pm

Not any time soon, the last big run-up in 2008, it took a few years before things like AR lowers drifted back down to reasonable levels.
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Re: When will prices return to normal?

Post by phil_in_cs » Wed Jan 16, 2013 2:09 pm

Prices will level out when supply and demand match up. When the supply exceeds the demand, the prices will start to fall.

Manufacturers base production levels on what they normally sell, not to deal with demand spikes. I'm sure Federal could double or triple capacity if they chose to, but what good would that do if the supply/demand ratio was as it was last summer? They'd have invested hugely in unneeded machines and assembly lines.

If you prep and plan ahead, demand spikes aren't a problem. Same idea has having your plywood bought and cut, and not waiting until there's a hurricane warning to head to home depot.
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Re: When will prices return to normal?

Post by Trebor » Fri Jan 18, 2013 4:12 am

Normally I'd say it would be a few months, but this has been an unprecedented spike in sales. Some gu companies are saying they know have a 2 year backlog to fill their orders.

I'm thinking it'll be closer to a year before things are "normal" and, in the "new normal" expect higher prices overall as well. (But, probably not as high as the current panic prices)
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Re: When will prices return to normal?

Post by Brotherbadger » Fri Jan 18, 2013 5:33 am

Depends on who you are looking to go through to buy your stuff. I fully expect prices to fall in the secondary market by august/Sept. People who went out and panic bought 25 Pmags and 18 lowers will realized nothing is happening and try to unload them to make back some of their money. Retail on the other hand, probably won't drop until next spring due to the massive backlog right now. Once the companies get through the majority of the backlog and supply catches up to demand, the prices will start to fall.
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Re: When will prices return to normal?

Post by rjm » Fri Jan 18, 2013 8:42 am

phil_in_cs wrote:Prices will level out when supply and demand match up. When the supply exceeds the demand, the prices will start to fall.

Manufacturers base production levels on what they normally sell, not to deal with demand spikes. I'm sure Federal could double or triple capacity if they chose to, but what good would that do if the supply/demand ratio was as it was last summer? They'd have invested hugely in unneeded machines and assembly lines.

If you prep and plan ahead, demand spikes aren't a problem. Same idea has having your plywood bought and cut, and not waiting until there's a hurricane warning to head to home depot.
I'd like to expand on this last point to serve as a lesson to everyone who got caught off-guard by this latest panic. I say latest to emphasize the fact that these things have happened in the past and will happen again in the future. I'm not someone who goes around constantly saying, "the purpose of this site is...", but here-goes, the purpose of this site is to hammer home the need to be ready before something happens and to provide people with some ideas and options to make sure they are.

If you lived in a city that got hit by a tornado 3 times in the past 10 years, chances are pretty high it's going to get nailed again. If you lived there and said, "There's no way it could happen again." and did nothing to get ready for the next time, when(not if) it does happen, you're going to be screwed. A smart person would say, "Gee, we've been hit 3 times already, maybe I should be ready for number 4," you won't be one of "those guys" standing in line out in the cold waiting for your turn to walk down empty aisles in the supermarket looking for stuff that's been sold out for 4 weeks.

It's been said almost to the point of being a cliche, but if you don't already have it, you aint going to be able to go get it. Magazines, gun parts, uppers, lowers, ammo, all of these things need to be bought during periods of calm in the same way you would buy beans and toilet paper in between hard times. If you don't, you'll be one of "those guys" standing in line out in the cold waiting to get into a gunstore to buy something that's been sold out for 4 weeks, or forced to pay $50 for a $10 magazine.

Again, when it comes to panics, this isn't the last one. If you wait till the next time (which may come faster than anyone can see) you'll be in the same situation as you are now. (And I mean "you" in the general sense and not in direct reference to anyone specific so OP don't take offence.) It was said in a movie once that a person is smart, but people are dumb,paniky, and dangerous. The slightest whisper on the wind of the word ban is enough to send most ding-bats and profiteers out there into an irrational buying frenzy. When that happens, be the guy who can sit his fat butt down on the couch, turn on the tv, and shake his head ruefully as he watches people lined up in the cold waiting to be gouged, knowing full well he has a deeply stocked larder and safe.
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Re: When will prices return to normal?

Post by Calzonewdippingsauce » Fri Jan 18, 2013 9:55 am

rjm wrote:
phil_in_cs wrote:Prices will level out when supply and demand match up. When the supply exceeds the demand, the prices will start to fall.

Manufacturers base production levels on what they normally sell, not to deal with demand spikes. I'm sure Federal could double or triple capacity if they chose to, but what good would that do if the supply/demand ratio was as it was last summer? They'd have invested hugely in unneeded machines and assembly lines.

If you prep and plan ahead, demand spikes aren't a problem. Same idea has having your plywood bought and cut, and not waiting until there's a hurricane warning to head to home depot.
I'd like to expand on this last point to serve as a lesson to everyone who got caught off-guard by this latest panic. I say latest to emphasize the fact that these things have happened in the past and will happen again in the future. I'm not someone who goes around constantly saying, "the purpose of this site is...", but here-goes, the purpose of this site is to hammer home the need to be ready before something happens and to provide people with some ideas and options to make sure they are.

If you lived in a city that got hit by a tornado 3 times in the past 10 years, chances are pretty high it's going to get nailed again. If you lived there and said, "There's no way it could happen again." and did nothing to get ready for the next time, when(not if) it does happen, you're going to be screwed. A smart person would say, "Gee, we've been hit 3 times already, maybe I should be ready for number 4," you won't be one of "those guys" standing in line out in the cold waiting for your turn to walk down empty aisles in the supermarket looking for stuff that's been sold out for 4 weeks.

It's been said almost to the point of being a cliche, but if you don't already have it, you aint going to be able to go get it. Magazines, gun parts, uppers, lowers, ammo, all of these things need to be bought during periods of calm in the same way you would buy beans and toilet paper in between hard times. If you don't, you'll be one of "those guys" standing in line out in the cold waiting to get into a gunstore to buy something that's been sold out for 4 weeks, or forced to pay $50 for a $10 magazine.

Again, when it comes to panics, this isn't the last one. If you wait till the next time (which may come faster than anyone can see) you'll be in the same situation as you are now. (And I mean "you" in the general sense and not in direct reference to anyone specific so OP don't take offence.) It was said in a movie once that a person is smart, but people are dumb,paniky, and dangerous. The slightest whisper on the wind of the word ban is enough to send most ding-bats and profiteers out there into an irrational buying frenzy. When that happens, be the guy who can sit his fat butt down on the couch, turn on the tv, and shake his head ruefully as he watches people lined up in the cold waiting to be gouged, knowing full well he has a deeply stocked larder and safe.
Amen brother. Well put, I was fortunate to be able to say that I never went needing something this time around. The guys I work with now understand.
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Re: When will prices return to normal?

Post by Ike » Fri Jan 18, 2013 9:57 am

I came into a rifle right before this and got screwed with getting ammunition. At least I got the rifle

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Re: When will prices return to normal?

Post by Uncreate » Fri Jan 18, 2013 10:13 am

I can say with a fair amount of certinty, be prepared to wait. Working for a gun manufacture (LMT) I can say we are honestly pushing things out as fast as we can. Yet we are still back-logged over a year. While we arent the largest company, we are pushing for 1500 guns a month. This includes our .223 and .308 line. TBH we (employees) arent even allowed a scratch and dent sale anymore because we are negotiating with customers to move everything we can.

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Re: When will prices return to normal?

Post by Finch » Fri Jan 18, 2013 10:50 am

crypto wrote:Not any time soon, the last big run-up in 2008, it took a few years before things like AR lowers drifted back down to reasonable levels.
this


it took a good 8 months to beat back the 2008 rush this time was bigger and will last longer.

This is not going to drop from the national news for some time....

[NOT POLITICS NEWS RELAX]

1. Next week various bills will be pushed in the house and senate.
2. Obama is planning to do a nationwide tour pushing for gun control this will keep at least a mention of it in the news for the next month.
3. MD, MA, CT and maybe CA, IL will introduce and probably pass some form of new gun control law this again will get news and could escalated.

Depending on the post 2014 landscape things could slow down. If pro gun forces take over the senate.

If there is another large shooting well....
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Re: When will prices return to normal?

Post by feedthedog » Fri Jan 18, 2013 11:00 am

All of the people that didn't want/need a gun pre-panic but bought one during the panic may be the first ones to sell if/when the regulatory situation calms down. The secondary market is going to be awesome pretty soon.

Has anyone thought of using these gun panics as an investment vehicle? Buy a huge amount of firearms at normal prices and then cash out during the spike, rinse, repeat? Which firearms/parts have the highest return?

I would guess that things like these have the highest return:
Glock 33rd mags
Tec-9ish handguns
Saiga-12
FN spaceguns (P90 and FS2000)

Does anyone know of a dataset I could look at to figure this out?

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Re: When will prices return to normal?

Post by Finch » Fri Jan 18, 2013 11:11 am

feedthedog wrote:All of the people that didn't want/need a gun pre-panic but bought one during the panic may be the first ones to sell if/when the regulatory situation calms down. The secondary market is going to be awesome pretty soon.

Has anyone thought of using these gun panics as an investment vehicle? Buy a huge amount of firearms at normal prices and then cash out during the spike, rinse, repeat? Which firearms/parts have the highest return?

I would guess that things like these have the highest return:
Glock 33rd mags
Tec-9ish handguns
Saiga-12
FN spaceguns (P90 and FS2000)

Does anyone know of a dataset I could look at to figure this out?
even if i agreed with you..... you ain't going to find any of that stuff at reasonable prices to flip

G18 and G19 mags are the first to go... always
No one cares about the tec-9 anymore
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Re: When will prices return to normal?

Post by feedthedog » Fri Jan 18, 2013 11:16 am

Finch wrote:
feedthedog wrote:All of the people that didn't want/need a gun pre-panic but bought one during the panic may be the first ones to sell if/when the regulatory situation calms down. The secondary market is going to be awesome pretty soon.

Has anyone thought of using these gun panics as an investment vehicle? Buy a huge amount of firearms at normal prices and then cash out during the spike, rinse, repeat? Which firearms/parts have the highest return?

I would guess that things like these have the highest return:
Glock 33rd mags
Tec-9ish handguns
Saiga-12
FN spaceguns (P90 and FS2000)

Does anyone know of a dataset I could look at to figure this out?
even if i agreed with you..... you ain't going to find any of that stuff at reasonable prices to flip

G18 and G19 mags are the first to go... always
No one cares about the tec-9 anymore
I can't find them right now. Depending on how things turn out, I can probably find them in 12 to 18 months. The only reason I mentioned the tec-9 is because of the huge price variability that I've seen online. To flip, we want the guns with the highest beta.

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Re: When will prices return to normal?

Post by Finch » Fri Jan 18, 2013 11:18 am

you're wasting your time and frankly being a little exploitative, if you wanted to sell stuff high you should have been buying low for the last 9 years. You will be buying high and selling low and your buyers will hate you.
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Re: When will prices return to normal?

Post by feedthedog » Fri Jan 18, 2013 11:28 am

Finch wrote:you're wasting your time and frankly being a little exploitative, if you wanted to sell stuff high you should have been buying low for the last 9 years. You will be buying high and selling low and your buyers will hate you.
You can't make people buy things, but you can offer a product at prevailing prices.

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Re: When will prices return to normal?

Post by Finch » Fri Jan 18, 2013 11:42 am

feedthedog wrote:
Finch wrote:you're wasting your time and frankly being a little exploitative, if you wanted to sell stuff high you should have been buying low for the last 9 years. You will be buying high and selling low and your buyers will hate you.
You can't make people buy things, but you can offer a product at prevailing prices.
i understand how capitalism works.. thanks,
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Re: When will prices return to normal?

Post by Doctorr Fabulous » Fri Jan 18, 2013 11:48 am

feedthedog wrote:
Finch wrote:you're wasting your time and frankly being a little exploitative, if you wanted to sell stuff high you should have been buying low for the last 9 years. You will be buying high and selling low and your buyers will hate you.
You can't make people buy things, but you can offer a product at prevailing prices.
Not without a federal firearms license.
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Re: When will prices return to normal?

Post by SteelWolf » Fri Jan 18, 2013 6:20 pm

^Private Sale Anyone? Oh wait... we need an FFL for that now.
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Re: When will prices return to normal?

Post by Doctorr Fabulous » Fri Jan 18, 2013 6:23 pm

SteelWolf wrote:^Private Sale Anyone? Oh wait... we need an FFL for that now.
No, buying firearms with intent to resale them without an FFL is illegal, and has been for quite some time.
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Re: When will prices return to normal?

Post by iron_angel » Fri Jan 18, 2013 6:48 pm

Not arguing, just asking - is that true for magazines, ammo, optics and other accessories, too?
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Re: When will prices return to normal?

Post by Doctorr Fabulous » Fri Jan 18, 2013 6:54 pm

iron_angel wrote:Not arguing, just asking - is that true for magazines, ammo, optics and other accessories, too?
No, but consult your state laws for sales-tax laws and your accountant for information regarding other taxes you may owe.
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Re: When will prices return to normal?

Post by ninja-elbow » Fri Jan 18, 2013 7:56 pm

Glock 19 mags were hard enough (non 'netz) to find before. Now? Zilch. I looked just to see a few weeks ago and NO ONE has any mags. I've got enough for what I need to do but kind of wish I had double. (5 Glock Factory x15 and 4 KAC x15)
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