Global Cooling will kill us all!

[Dark Cloud]

+1 on the natural cycles explanation. Anybody remember Mt Pinatubo? Anybody know what effect one decent volcanic eruption had on the "global" climate as opposed to every factory in every city in every country in the world from the beginning of the industrual revolustion until 20 minutes ago?

At one point, much of north America was covered with ice. At this point much of North America is NOT covered with ice. This means that between then and now, the it got (any guesses?) warmer.

Some scienteists and their lapdogs, the brain-dead media, will tell us that this is because Mastodons stopped riding horses to work and started driving SUV's (Anybody know how much greenhouse gas a horse emits when it's just sitting there in your parking lot?).

[ZScott]

A very good point and if we have anything to do with it then we need to undo it. The world with even a 3 dgreee temp change is not one I want to live in.

Um? If it was 12 deg. F then changed to 15 deg. F, or if it was 80 deg. F then switched to 83 deg F. I don't thing any one would notice a whole lot.

Besides with this whole cooling warming thing does anyone happen to notice the biggest contributer to this whole thing? Earth!!!! and the Sun!!! with the Earths tilt and orbital path?? If I am not mistaken a few other planets in our system are doing the same thing and with the same results.


Heck just wait another 10 or 20 years they will be screaming about global cooling again....... geese. Always some one crying wolf or screaming the sky is falling.

The latest news is the ice is returning to its normal size and position..and more.

ZOMG were heading into an ice age now.. gahhhhhhhhhhhhhh!!!!

http://drknow.newsvine.com/_news/2008/0 ... -100-years

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/

[SSgtMobley]

All I know is that it's been goddamn cold here, and I'm sick of snow.

Whereas I was hoping for just SOME snow this winter. But I live in Texas...so likely won't happen.

[Molon Labe]

A very good point and if we have anything to do with it then we need to undo it. The world with even a 3 dgreee temp change is not one I want to live in.

Um? If it was 12 deg. F then changed to 15 deg. F, or if it was 80 deg. F then switched to 83 deg F. I don't thing any one would notice a whole lot.

Besides with this whole cooling warming thing does anyone happen to notice the biggest contributer to this whole thing? Earth!!!! and the Sun!!! with the Earths tilt and orbital path?? If I am not mistaken a few other planets in our system are doing the same thing and with the same results.


Heck just wait another 10 or 20 years they will be screaming about global cooling again....... geese. Always some one crying wolf or screaming the sky is falling.

The latest news is the ice is returning to its normal size and position..and more.

ZOMG were heading into an ice age now.. gahhhhhhhhhhhhhh!!!!

http://drknow.newsvine.com/_news/2008/0 ... -100-years

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/

More talk in the scientific community suggests that maybe ice is breaking off of the caps, in record amounts an sizes, due to the fact that the ice has grown so far from the main land that it can no longer support it's own weight. Thus it would begin breaking off in huge amounts, all at once, until the ice is no longer spread to far from the actual coast.

I'll try and find the link to it.

[¿]

were's that german guy? i guess ill have to say we've had the warmest winter in a while. it hardly even snowed

[andygates]

Should I be up all night worrying about global warming or pissing my pants about the coming ice age?
Will someone please help me here???

The Rapture will probably get you first.



Climate change of any sort - and don't forget that the global climate can change with wacky local climate effects - is disruptive. Even the 'cycles and 'interglacials' arguments don't deny the observed changes, and those changes will probably cause changes in crop patterns and human migration. Or feast here, famine there, and climate refugees all over.

And then there's the goddamned zombies...

[Ellie With An Axe]

A very good point and if we have anything to do with it then we need to undo it. The world with even a 3 dgreee temp change is not one I want to live in.

Um? If it was 12 deg. F then changed to 15 deg. F, or if it was 80 deg. F then switched to 83 deg F. I don't thing any one would notice a whole lot.

They're talking about a worldwide average. Not the daily temperature on your hometown morning news. A worldwide average change requires an enormous shift of many, many things over an elongated time period to create a change in temperature of even a couple of degrees. The Earth moves very, very, very slowly in terms of patterns of growth and change. It is impossible to see all the changes in your own lifetime; people study ice cores and things of that nature to come up with averages over a specific time period or era or "age". Right now we're in the Holocene era.

[CavemanSam]

A very good point and if we have anything to do with it then we need to undo it. The world with even a 3 dgreee temp change is not one I want to live in.

Um? If it was 12 deg. F then changed to 15 deg. F, or if it was 80 deg. F then switched to 83 deg F. I don't thing any one would notice a whole lot.

They're talking about a worldwide average. Not the daily temperature on your hometown morning news. A worldwide average change requires an enormous shift of many, many things over an elongated time period to create a change in temperature of even a couple of degrees. The Earth moves very, very, very slowly in terms of patterns of growth and change. It is impossible to see all the changes in your own lifetime; people study ice cores and things of that nature to come up with averages over a specific time period or era or "age". Right now we're in the Holocene era.

I love zombies.
Someone check my math:

There is approximately 1,260,000,000,000,000,000,000 liters of water on earth. Much of this water is in the oceans, but water is constantly being evaporated and going through the water cycle. Lets cut this number in half to accommodate for deep sea waters.
Approximate amount of water needed to be warmed: 6.30 x 10^20 liters

A calorie is the amount of energy needed to increase 1 gram (1 mL) of water 1 degree Celsius. Because there is 1000mL of water in 1L, it takes 1000 calories to raise 1L of water 1 degree C.

So, 6.30 x 10^20 liters times 1000 calories/liter = 6.30 x 10^23 calories

1 calorie equals 4.184 joules.

6.30 x 10^23 calories times 4.184 joules = 2.64 x 10^24 joules

1 megaton of TNT equals approx 4.184 × 10^9 joules

2.64 x 10^24 joules divided by 4.184 x 10^9 joules/Mt = 6.30 x 10^14 Megatons of TNT.

That's 630,000,000,000,000 (six hundred and thirty trillion) megatons of TNT.

This is the amount of energy needed to raise the earth's average temperature 1 degree C, which is about 1.667 degrees F, so double this for 3 degrees F.

In comparison, "little boy" was 13 to 16 kilotons, and the Tsar bomb, the largest nuclear weapon ever detonated, had a yield of 50 megatons and a theoretical yield of 100 megatons.

Two points:
1) a 3 degree F raise in average temps is a big jump and requires a enormous amount of energy
2) if the earth's temperature does rise by even 1 degree, that energy will feed into hurricanes, tornadoes, sea storms, and other weather phenomena, so we probably will notice it

[AwPhuch]

A very good point and if we have anything to do with it then we need to undo it. The world with even a 3 dgreee temp change is not one I want to live in.

Um? If it was 12 deg. F then changed to 15 deg. F, or if it was 80 deg. F then switched to 83 deg F. I don't thing any one would notice a whole lot.

They're talking about a worldwide average. Not the daily temperature on your hometown morning news. A worldwide average change requires an enormous shift of many, many things over an elongated time period to create a change in temperature of even a couple of degrees. The Earth moves very, very, very slowly in terms of patterns of growth and change. It is impossible to see all the changes in your own lifetime; people study ice cores and things of that nature to come up with averages over a specific time period or era or "age". Right now we're in the Holocene era.

I love zombies.
Someone check my math:

There is approximately 1,260,000,000,000,000,000,000 liters of water on earth. Much of this water is in the oceans, but water is constantly being evaporated and going through the water cycle. Lets cut this number in half to accommodate for deep sea waters.
Approximate amount of water needed to be warmed: 6.30 x 10^20 liters

A calorie is the amount of energy needed to increase 1 gram (1 mL) of water 1 degree Celsius. Because there is 1000mL of water in 1L, it takes 1000 calories to raise 1L of water 1 degree C.

So, 6.30 x 10^20 liters times 1000 calories/liter = 6.30 x 10^23 calories

1 calorie equals 4.184 joules.

6.30 x 10^23 calories times 4.184 joules = 2.64 x 10^24 joules

1 megaton of TNT equals approx 4.184 × 10^9 joules

2.64 x 10^24 joules divided by 4.184 x 10^9 joules/Mt = 6.30 x 10^14 Megatons of TNT.

That's 630,000,000,000,000 (six hundred and thirty trillion) megatons of TNT.

This is the amount of energy needed to raise the earth's average temperature 1 degree C, which is about 1.667 degrees F, so double this for 3 degrees F.

In comparison, "little boy" was 13 to 16 kilotons, and the Tsar bomb, the largest nuclear weapon ever detonated, had a yield of 50 megatons and a theoretical yield of 100 megatons.

Two points:
1) a 3 degree F raise in average temps is a big jump and requires a enormous amount of energy
2) if the earth's temperature does rise by even 1 degree, that energy will feed into hurricanes, tornadoes, sea storms, and other weather phenomena, so we probably will notice it

You forgot to carry the 1

[19kilo]

How many Huricanes have we had in the last two years touch land in the U.S.? What cataggory was katrina and Rita when they came to land?

[AwPhuch]

How many Huricanes have we had in the last two years touch land in the U.S.? What cataggory was katrina and Rita when they came to land?

Both of em downgraded to a 3..they came roaring in all swole up 5's but the instant they got near land...boom...cat 3

[Ellie With An Axe]

I love zombies.
Someone check my math:

It looks right just at a glance. Google has a ballpark figure:

((2.64 x ((10^24) joules)) divided by 4.18400) x ((10^9) joules) = 6.30975143 × 1032 m4 kg2 / s4

I'm too tired and lazy to go through the math right now, maybe in the morning.

This reminds me of a really good Borg/Ohm's law joke:

Resistance = futile.

Yeah. I'm flying my nerd flag HIGH tonight.

I would like to sit down and do the math to discover about how long it would take the planet to generate that much heat. That's enough electricity to supply a lot of other planets with electricity for a long, long time. Lucky for us it takes thousands of years for these increases to happen. We would get a hell of a sun tan if it happened faster.

Btw, +1 on Ivan. I studied that thing in depth years ago. Still gives me chills.

[Lurch]

Apparently Mars is warming up too. Damn SUV's they're gonna screw up Mars now too!

[19kilo]

How many Huricanes have we had in the last two years touch land in the U.S.? What cataggory was katrina and Rita when they came to land?

Both of em downgraded to a 3..they came roaring in all swole up 5's but the instant they got near land...boom...cat 3

So they didn't hit land as monster record breaking storms. And we haven't had an increase in hurricane frequency and strength? In fact haven't we had less storms? Please somebody correct me if I am wrong.

[Lurch]

So they didn't hit land as monster record breaking storms. And we haven't had an increase in hurricane frequency and strength? In fact haven't we had less storms? Please somebody correct me if I am wrong.

Nope, you're not wrong. They've been screaming for the last two years that global warming was going to cause horrific hurricane seasons. What they got was zip, zero, nada.

[Old_Man]

http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/admin/publication_files/resource-2476-2008.02.pdf


http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/tropical/

Chris Landsea, one of the researchers as well as the science and operations officer at NOAA’s National Hurricane Center in Miami. “There is nothing in the U.S. hurricane damage record that indicates global warming has caused a significant increase in destruction along our coasts.”

edited for url posting incompetency

[Old_Man]

As to solar activity...let's hope it picks up soon.


http://www.spaceandscience.net/id64.html

According to the conclusions of SSRC 1-2008: " This forecast next solar minimum will likely be accompanied by the coldest period globally for the past 200 years and as such, has the potential to result in world wide, agricultural, social, and economic disruption."

[Ellie With An Axe]

So they didn't hit land as monster record breaking storms. And we haven't had an increase in hurricane frequency and strength? In fact haven't we had less storms? Please somebody correct me if I am wrong.

But since when? You were born? Or since 60,000 years ago? 100 years ago?

2005 was a record hurricane season. But what does it matter if the next one is a small hurricane season or not. What's it matter if the hurricane season in 2025 breaks all records of all time, and if we don't have any hurricanes in 2009. Guess what, glacial advance and retreat marches on with or without you. Too much looking for short patterns, cut and dried, black and white, linear workings. There is much gray area, much zig-zagging, and that is contentious to our wee human brains.

[marzpan]

You know what, I THOUGHT the past few years were colder! I'm just glad someone else noticed!

[19kilo]

So they didn't hit land as monster record breaking storms. And we haven't had an increase in hurricane frequency and strength? In fact haven't we had less storms? Please somebody correct me if I am wrong.

But since when? You were born? Or since 60,000 years ago? 100 years ago?

2005 was a record hurricane season. But what does it matter if the next one is a small hurricane season or not. What's it matter if the hurricane season in 2025 breaks all records of all time, and if we don't have any hurricanes in 2009. Guess what, glacial advance and retreat marches on with or without you. Too much looking for short patterns, cut and dried, black and white, linear workings. There is much gray area, much zig-zagging, and that is contentious to our wee human brains.

Your right, too many people look at the short term and say OMG we're all going to cook in the next thousand years if we don't stop driving suvs and paying carbon taxes to the UN. I know that the 90's was the hottest decade on record. I also know that the 30's was the hotest before that. So that tells me that its all just the weather.

2005 had the most hurricanes. One year maybe ten, maybe fifty years from now that record will be broken. It's caled the weather.

I am always skeptical when some one says that the way to fix something is to take more money from me.

[SSgtMobley]

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,334682,00.html

The above is another new article I read today. You may like it.

[andygates]

Except that the first point about temperatures is debunked (the trend is still strongly upward), and the conference is a shell that's paying skeptics to attend (the petrochemical industry are funding it and inviting speakers friendly to them).

Prep for weird weather and bitch about taxes. It's all we can do, and it's what we're doing already.

[dogbane]

Except that the first point about temperatures is debunked (the trend is still strongly upward), and the conference is a shell that's paying skeptics to attend (the petrochemical industry are funding it and inviting speakers friendly to them).

Prep for weird weather and bitch about taxes. It's all we can do, and it's what we're doing already.

I've cited RealClimate, too. It's the most accessible, authoritative and unbiased source of climate information on the web, IMO. It's Snopes for climate myths.

[SSgtMobley]

Except that the first point about temperatures is debunked (the trend is still strongly upward), and the conference is a shell that's paying skeptics to attend (the petrochemical industry are funding it and inviting speakers friendly to them).

Prep for weird weather and bitch about taxes. It's all we can do, and it's what we're doing already.

I've cited RealClimate, too. It's the most accessible, authoritative and unbiased source of climate information on the web, IMO. It's Snopes for climate myths.

Just so we're all clear can you tell us who funds RealClimate?

Edit - also, you will note that while it may be an organization paying to bring skeptics together that doesn't mean they aren't actually still skeptics. Skeptics, especially scientist skeptics, are skeptics for a reason. Now I recall a link within the article regarding Peer-Reviewed journals. I don't have time to dig into that but I seem to recall Scientific Journals being the basis of some the earlier discussions we've had on the topic.