Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

[phil_in_cs]

A local member of the KC chapter posted this on FB today.. scary read.. http://www.beaconequity.com/we-are-preparing-for-massive-civil-war-says-dhs-informant-2012-05-03/

It claims highly creditable source....

I've seen that on several tin foil sites, but no where I trust yet.

[williaty]

Anything that starts with the Chinese ruining our economy instantly loses credibility with me. Why? Because those damned Commies are damned good capitalists! The US is the largest consumer of badly made, useless shit. Considering that China is the largest producer of badly made, useless shit, their economic picture depends on our economic picture. If they take the US under, there's not enough elasticity worldwide to keep the total demand for cheap shit at its current levels. If they take us under, they've just blown their own head off.

[Kommander]

*Quietly hums Deus Ex theme*

[Doctorr Fabulous]

A local member of the KC chapter posted this on FB today.. scary read.. http://www.beaconequity.com/we-are-preparing-for-massive-civil-war-says-dhs-informant-2012-05-03/

It claims highly creditable source....

30 seconds of following links, and I got to TruNews, the source of the interview. 10 seconds on google leads you to the mission statement of TruNews: to report on the impending Second Coming of Christ, and event that the Christian religious guide says is unknowable.

My bullshit alarm just went haywire, and not for religious reasons, for reasons relating to the lack of a consistent source for the "interview" and for the fact that they are dedicating to reporting on the coming of an event that their religious manual says no man will know.

Lesson One: Vet Your Sources. Places with imbeeded links to "early warnign alarms" and "best gold buy deals" are normally bullshit.
Lesson Two: WTF did this ever have to do with Bankruptcy?

[phil_in_cs]

Lesson Two: WTF did this ever have to do with Bankruptcy?

There was some financialily bullshit mixed in about the dollar collapse and Russian gold taking us over.

[Krustofski]

Lesson Two: WTF did this ever have to do with Bankruptcy?

There was some financialily bullshit mixed in about the dollar collapse and Russian gold taking us over.

Yeah, I've heard "OMG THE WEST IS GOING BAKRUPT AND THEN WE ARE ALL TAKEN OVER BY BY OUR NEW OVERLORDS WITH ALL THEIR GOLD!!!!" before, and I don't get it either.
The largest gold reserve in the world is owned by the US. The second largest is owned by Germany, and it's not even 1/6th of what the US have. Russia and China (the usual suspects) are waaaaaayyyy down the list. And even the gargantuan US gold reserve wasn't enough to save the Bretton Woods system from crumbling. Buy out everything with gold-backed money? Yeah, I don't think so.

Now, if China would be working on a rare-earth-backed currency on the other hand...

[KnightoftheRoc]

Molybdenum. Base it on that. Why? Just because I really like the sound of people trying to pronounce it properly in conversation. Half of them end up spitting at the other half.

Anything trying to replace gold as a standard has got a hard road ahead of it- gold has been too popular with too many for way too long to just "be replaced". For a largely useless metal with no practical applications until recent times (radiation shielding and electrical conductor plating), it's enjoyed an awful lot of popularity throughout recorded history, world wide- no matter how expanded "the world" happened to be at the time. Anyone claiming it's going to be replaced should be looked at as being an extremely suspect source of information. As a currency, or the value backing it, gold has really only had that one use for all that time- it's pretty, that's it. And, unlike any given generation's Kardashian-of-your-choice, it's looks don't fade and get wrinkly over time. Human beings have a fascination for it, pure and simple- we can't eat it, can't wear it without a hernia being involved, can't burn it for heat. But, it's shiny, pretty, and tends to stay that way, so we want it. Good luck overcoming a prejudice like THAT!

[phil_in_cs]

election day in France and Greece, and the results are significant to this discussion

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/05/ ... CY20120506

Analysis: Greek, French voters reject German-led austerity
(Reuters) - Greek voters dealt a serious blow on Sunday to the fragile political consensus that has kept Europe's currency bloc intact through more than two years of crisis, rejecting the austerity-for-aid policies that have shielded the country from bankruptcy and a euro exit.

Greece's vote, combined with the victory of Socialist Francois Hollande over incumbent Nicolas Sarkozy in a French presidential election, will raise pressure on Europe's paymaster Germany to pursue a more growth-oriented approach to the crisis.

But it is far from clear whether Chancellor Angela Merkel, whose insistence on tough deficit reduction in vulnerable southern euro members is popular in Germany, will take more than symbolic steps in that direction, even after Sunday's elections.

"This shows that politics is getting out of control in Europe, the gap between politicians and voters is widening, that's what you see in Greece, that's what you see in France," said Steen Jakobsen, chief economist at Saxo Bank in Copenhagen.

"Clearly, voters across Europe have started to send the message: ‘we are not ready to do the reforms', and that's worrying."

More immediately, the struggle of Greece's two big pro-bailout parties - conservative New Democracy and socialist PASOK - to secure a parliamentary majority raises questions about whether Athens can stay in the euro zone in the long run, and may spark a new wave of contagion to other member states.

more at the link

[williaty]

This has sort of been my worry all along. Even if the governments finally try to take measures to have some responsibility, the people can just vote out the responsible guys and vote in people promising bread and circuses. It's hard to fix a sovereign debt crisis when people will only elect leaders that promise not to raise taxes or cut services.

[Tetra Grammaton Cleric]

This has sort of been my worry all along. Even if the governments finally try to take measures to have some responsibility, the people can just vote out the responsible guys and vote in people promising bread and circuses. It's hard to fix a sovereign debt crisis when people will only elect leaders that promise not to raise taxes or cut services.

Shhhh. The one world government will hear you.

-

[SeerSavant]

This has sort of been my worry all along. Even if the governments finally try to take measures to have some responsibility, the people can just vote out the responsible guys and vote in people promising bread and circuses. It's hard to fix a sovereign debt crisis when people will only elect leaders that promise not to raise taxes or cut services.

Shhhh. The one world government will hear you.

-

While I don't disagree, and I don't want this even considered a political comment, I think that some things have generated enough momentum that they simply cannot be corrected by votes, or even the will of the voters.

From my understanding, Greek people have been looking at Iceland's solution to their problem as a viable alternative to the strict, some could say crippling, measures that were being agreed upon and simply voted their disagreement.

For good or bad, I would never think that any citizenry would be better off without any voice in their country's future...

They choose well, they survive, the choose poorly, they crash and suffer... But it should always be their choice.

And yes, sometimes the choices are made after generations of instinctively voting for whomever will promise them the most... That's the price they pay for thinking shallow.
But I prefer the choice, even if it's a bad one, to no choice at all...

[Tetra Grammaton Cleric]

This has sort of been my worry all along. Even if the governments finally try to take measures to have some responsibility, the people can just vote out the responsible guys and vote in people promising bread and circuses. It's hard to fix a sovereign debt crisis when people will only elect leaders that promise not to raise taxes or cut services.

Shhhh. The one world government will hear you.

-

While I don't disagree, and I don't want this even considered a political comment, I think that some things have generated enough momentum that they simply cannot be corrected by votes, or even the will of the voters.

From my understanding, Greek people have been looking at Iceland's solution to their problem as a viable alternative to the strict, some could say crippling, measures that were being agreed upon and simply voted their disagreement.

For good or bad, I would never think that any citizenry would be better off without any voice in their country's future...

They choose well, they survive, the choose poorly, they crash and suffer... But it should always be their choice.

And yes, sometimes the choices are made after generations of instinctively voting for whomever will promise them the most... That's the price they pay for thinking shallow.
But I prefer the choice, even if it's a bad one, to no choice at all...

Amen, but I meant "attracting .owg tinfoil" rather than any reference to it being political commentary.

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[SeerSavant]

I know...

I meant I didn't want MY following comment to be considered political, not yours or Williaty, as i thought my post would sound more political than I wanted it too...

Probably wasn't necessary, but I tend to ramble, so it was a preemptive thing....

[Tetra Grammaton Cleric]

I know...

I meant I didn't want MY following comment to be considered political, not yours or Williaty, as i thought my post would sound more political than I wanted it too...

Probably wasn't necessary, but I tend to ramble, so it was a preemptive thing....

I share your pain.

-

[phil_in_cs]

as of 6:30 central Monday morning, the Asian markets are down some 2.7%. The German and French markets tanked but have recovered. UK market closed? Futures indicate a rough day in the US Markets.

[Odinsown]

Hey Everyone:

Ahem.

Odinsown

[TC]

Post edited because I'm an idiot!

Nothing to see here!

[raptor]

Just a hiccup...so far.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142 ... TopStories

US markets are down but not a whole lot.

[Kommander]

So what can Deutchland and the rest of the still functioning European economies do to limit the damage to themselves when the broken European economies reject austerity measures and the Euro goes Thelma and Louise?

[SlobberToofTigger]

Easy. Shed their garbage debt to the US Fed like they already are...

[phil_in_cs]

So what can Deutchland and the rest of the still functioning European economies do to limit the damage to themselves when the broken European economies reject austerity measures and the Euro goes Thelma and Louise?

GTFO is one option.

[Krustofski]

So what can Deutchland and the rest of the still functioning European economies do to limit the damage to themselves when the broken European economies reject austerity measures and the Euro goes Thelma and Louise?

GTFO is one option.

Hardly possible without prior planning & preparation, which could hardly be kept secret. And any notice of France and/or Germany moving in such a direction would kill off the Euro for good.
The only way to get off the ship is to cut a hole into the hull and sink it completely in the process, so to speak. Things have to get really bad before this happens. Both countries, Germany in particular, are export-based economies that love the Euro.

[raptor]

Hardly possible without prior planning & preparation, which could hardly be kept secret. And any notice of France and/or Germany moving in such a direction would kill off the Euro for good.
The only way to get off the ship is to cut a hole into the hull and sink it completely in the process, so to speak. Things have to get really bad before this happens. Both countries, Germany in particular, are export-based economies that love the Euro.

The way forward is IMO limited to two different routes. Both are not good.

1) Push the problem states into accept austerity measures through a combination of reducing the pain (paying off their debt) while insisting upon "fiscal unity". (fiscal unity = other EU countries having significant domestic spending control). In other words Fr & Gr agree to pay more bailout and guarantee more debt in return for promise to be fiscally responsible in the future. (I have huge picture of this happening. )

2) Accept the turmoil created by these fiscal problems. Within this option there are two options. A) GR & FR stick their heads in the sand and ignore the problem. B) GR & FR move to expel the problem nations from EU debt and currency.

Option 2 B makes a lot more sense than withdrawing from the EU. Keep the EU but throw out the problem family members as part of a tough love situation. It is not a good solution but IMO better than than option 1 or option 2 A.


In many ways this is like a family situation where fiscally responsible family members must decide whether or not to bail out the black sheep of the family or get a divorce.


Disclosure:
My money is on Option 2 A (literally) being the preferred approach for 2012.

[phil_in_cs]

I would point out that Germany's history when forced into indebtedness by others, with no control over the others spending, is not good. Especially in the first half of the 20th century.... I wouldn't want to offend Krustofski, but especially if France ceases to help fund the problem cases and instead spends it's money on itself things could get ugly.

Hardly possible without prior planning & preparation, which could hardly be kept secret. And any notice of France and/or Germany moving in such a direction would kill off the Euro for good.
The only way to get off the ship is to cut a hole into the hull and sink it completely in the process, so to speak. Things have to get really bad before this happens. Both countries, Germany in particular, are export-based economies that love the Euro.

The way forward is IMO limited to two different routes. Both are not good.

1) Push the problem states into accept austerity measures through a combination of reducing the pain (paying off their debt) while insisting upon "fiscal unity". (fiscal unity = other EU countries having significant domestic spending control). In other words Fr & Gr agree to pay more bailout and guarantee more debt in return for promise to be fiscally responsible in the future. (I have huge picture of this happening. )

2) Accept the turmoil created by these fiscal problems. Within this option there are two options. A) GR & FR stick their heads in the sand and ignore the problem. B) GR & FR move to expel the problem nations from EU debt and currency.

Option 2 B makes a lot more sense than withdrawing from the EU. Keep the EU but throw out the problem family members as part of a tough love situation. It is not a good solution but IMO better than than option 1 or option 2 A.


In many ways this is like a family situation where fiscally responsible family members must decide whether or not to bail out the black sheep of the family or get a divorce.


Disclosure:
My money is on Option 2 A (literally) being the preferred approach for 2012.