Iran Nukes

[mantis]

@landser

I have no doubt that the Iranians would be crushed like a bug - my main concern is what would the Russians do - especially if some of their advisors working on the Iranian nuclear program are killed in Israeli/US-NATO attacks?

[Tater Raider]

I personally think Isreal is a good judge of what's going on and has the intelligence assets to monitor. Watch what they do and don't do to take the pulse of the region on a global scale. On a regional basis you have to look at things country by country and deal with the internal politics, which is beyond what I'll go into on ZS. I stay well clear of politics; however, politics matter on something like this and the mods are good about that.

[mantis]

I personally think Isreal is a good judge of what's going on and has the intelligence assets to monitor.

I have no doubt of that. The Israelis are only being realistic when it comes to stopping the Iranians from becomming nuclear capable. It is a matter of national survival for them. My worry is how far it will go before both sides push back from the table. We could be looking at a minor blip that doesn't go much beyond the Israelis bombing the Iranian nuclear program into oblivion and the Iranians hitting back mostly with rhetoric to the "Cuban Missile Crisis" of the 21st century where escalation upon escalation takes the world to the brink. I don't think that's all that likely but it does remain a frightening possibility.

[Tater Raider]

I think it's imprtant to note that, depending on the situation and to the best of my limited knowledge, Isreal does have a "Nukes First" policy. It has to be a dire situation for sure but there you go.


EtA: Isreal also has a diplomatic policy that sums up something like, "We don't care what the rest of you do or don't do if it prevents us from ensuring our nation's survival." They listen to other countries and try to work with them but failing that Isreal does what it does and deals with the aftermath when they are done.

[TacAir]

Has anyone else given this much thought? Do you think I am thinking realistically about this or am I out there with Pluto?

(MAP here)
Russia has a real border with Iran. The small and failed states of Georgia and Azerbaijan are past being puppets of Russia, they have Russian troops stationed in the AO.

Since Russia does business with Iran, in the face of UN mandated sanctions, it's clear to me anyway, that Russia will take an attack on Iran - by ANY State, as a threat to the Rodinia (Родить).

News reports show -
"Iran and Russia have started using their domestic rial and rouble currencies in bilateral trade instead of the U.S. dollar, Iran's envoy to Moscow said on Friday, after the United States imposed new sanctions on the Middle East state.

"(Trade) is based on our national currencies," said Iranian ambassador to Russia Seyed Sajjadi.

"We started this work long ago. Iranian businessmen are buying products in Russia and are using the rouble as (payment) currency ... The U.S. dollar has no (economic) support base," he said speaking at a news conference." So even without any conflict, our ability to impact the area is still reduced.

More news -
"In 2010 Moscow began offering to exchange roubles for Chinese yuan as the two nations look to boost bilateral transactions in their own currencies and reduce their reliance on the dollar.

China accounts for 10.1 percent of Russia's foreign trade and is its second-largest trading partner after the European Union, while Iran's share in Russia's trade in 2011 stood at 0.5 percent."

Even in other parts of the world, our influence is being reduced right before our eyes.

A recent Congressional Research Service’s report on aid to Israel shows -

Over the last 20 years, the U.S. has been slowly phasing out economic aid to Israel and gradually replacing it with increased military aid. Beginning in 2007, the U.S. has increased military aid by $150 million each year. By FY2012, we will be sending Israel $3.09 billion a year (or an average of $8.5 million a day) and will continue to provide military aid at that level through 2018. U.S. tax dollars are subsidizing one of the most powerful foreign militaries. According to the CRS report, “[current U.S. military aid] grants to Israel represent 18.2% of the overall Israeli defense budget.”

So while our influence in some areas is on the wane, we still have some clout in Israel. For now.

Israel is not without resources- the same CRS report noted:
"Contrary to ordinary U.S. policy, Israel has been and continues to be allowed to use approximately 25% of this military aid to purchase equipment from Israeli manufacturers. According to CRS, “no other recipient of U.S. military assistance has been granted this benefit.” Thanks in part to this indirect U.S. subsidy, Israel’s arms industry has become one of the strongest in the world. “Between 2001 an 2008, it was the 7th largest arms supplier to the world with sales worth a total of 9.9 billion."

The area is a powder-keg and we now have more than one Carrier Battle Group sitting in the AO.
Up to now, its been mostly the rattle of small and rusty sabers. If, however, Iran is able to achieve a working nuke, that rattle now become much louder....

The time of maximum risk, in my planing model, is Nov to Feb upcoming. My worry on Iran is not very high in terms of personal or direct impact, but we will wait to see see if the DPRK demonstrates a missile with the range to hit Alaska....

No, you aren't out past Pluto, I would suggest your planning look to impacts from massive spikes in oil price, shortages of motor fuel and having a good supply of fod on hand, if possible.

Of course, everyone sees these events and actions in a different light - YMMV.

[the_alias]

I personally think Isreal is a good judge of what's going on and has the intelligence assets to monitor.

I disagree with you massively on this.

[raptor]

I think you are missing some things asset wise. Almost a year ago six U.S. submarines headed to the gulf each carrying 212 Tomahawks and the potential to carry 200 special warfare operatives.

You got a source for this? Typically what the US does is NOT broadcast where their submarines go. Stealth is the whole purpose behind using a submarine as a war fighting asset. Saying where they are going defeats the whole purpose behind this.

The Los Angeles Clas submarines typically list a torpedo load out of 26 tube launched weapons and a VLS system for 12 missles. Obviously under EWO conditions this storage would likely be expanded but considering that Tomahawks are roughly the same size as typical torpedo, I find that count of 212 each may be a stretch. Also if they were going to deploy 200 SEALS stealth would be required.

The US would not not likely send an Ohio class SLBM since in fact if we anted to use those they could likely engage an Iranian target anywhere within a 5,000 mile radius of the target. No need for it to get close.


Finally on an unrelated subject, India is a large regional player with interests in the matter.

I would note that India and the US Navy are conducting a joint exercise in the Bay of Bengal this week. Naval exercises have been used as a cover for military operations and intimidation, but they have also been just that military exercises.

http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/a ... 284922.ece

[Tater Raider]

I personally think Isreal is a good judge of what's going on and has the intelligence assets to monitor.

I disagree with you massively on this.

PM me for a polite discussion on this?

[landser]

I think you are missing some things asset wise. Almost a year ago six U.S. submarines headed to the gulf each carrying 212 Tomahawks and the potential to carry 200 special warfare operatives.

You got a source for this? Typically what the US does is NOT broadcast where their submarines go. Stealth is the whole purpose behind using a submarine as a war fighting asset. Saying where they are going defeats the whole purpose behind this.

The Los Angeles Clas submarines typically list a torpedo load out of 26 tube launched weapons and a VLS system for 12 missles. Obviously under EWO conditions this storage would likely be expanded but considering that Tomahawks are roughly the same size as typical torpedo, I find that count of 212 each may be a stretch. Also if they were going to deploy 200 SEALS stealth would be required.

The US would not not likely send an Ohio class SLBM since in fact if we anted to use those they could likely engage an Iranian target anywhere within a 5,000 mile radius of the target. No need for it to get close.


Finally on an unrelated subject, India is a large regional player with interests in the matter.

I would note that India and the US Navy are conducting a joint exercise in the Bay of Bengal this week. Naval exercises have been used as a cover for military operations and intimidation, but they have also been just that military exercises.

http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/a ... 284922.ece

CNN ABC news I dont get my news any special way.

[landser]

here this accounts for four of the six the news is 18 months old so I will have to do some digging http://www.cadenagramonte.cubaweb.cu/en ... &Itemid=14

but this puts 30 ships in the water.
ohio class carry 154 so i am forced to assume a larger class is being used http://archive.newsmax.com/archives/art ... 2400.shtml

Iran now has at least ten in the water so I would guess at this time we have more than six

[phil_in_cs]

http://www.timesofisrael.com/iaf-plans-for-iran-attack/

Israeli TV report shows air force gearing up for Iran attack, says moment of truth is near: ‘IAF expects losses, and knows it can’t destroy entire Iranian program’

A major Israel TV station on Sunday night broadcast a detailed report on how Israel will go about attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities in the event that diplomacy and sanctions fail and Israel decides to carry out a military strike.

The report, screened on the main evening news of Channel 10, was remarkable both in terms of the access granted to the reporter, who said he had spent weeks with the pilots and other personnel he interviewed, and in the fact that his assessments on a strike were cleared by the military censor.

No order to strike is likely to be given before the P5+1 talks with Iran resume in May, the reporter, Alon Ben-David, said. “But the coming summer will not only be hot but tense.”

In the event that negotiations fail and the order is given for Israel to carry out an attack on Iranian nuclear facilities, “dozens if not more planes” will take part in the mission: attack and escort jets, tankers for mid-air refueling, electronic warfare planes and rescue helicopters, the report said.

Ben-David said the Israel Air Force “does not have the capacity to destroy the entire Iranian program.”

Much more at the link http://www.timesofisrael.com/iaf-plans-for-iran-attack/

[Blast]

Phil, seeing your name on a fresh post in this tread always makes me nervous bacause I know you have reliable, terrifying news.
-Blast

[phil_in_cs]

Phil, seeing your name on a fresh post in this tread always makes me nervous bacause I know you have reliable, terrifying news.
-Blast

Some good news this time:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-17837768

The head of the Israeli military has said he does not think Iran will develop nuclear weapons.

Chief of Staff Lt Gen Benny Gantz made the statement in an interview with the Israeli newspaper, Haaretz.

He said Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, had not yet made the final decision whether to build a nuclear bomb.

more at the link

[JustInCase]

I caught the tale end of a radio news report about the possiblity of Iran building a missle base on some islands north of South America? Anyone hear of that or can confirm or deny said report?

[phil_in_cs]

I caught the tale end of a radio news report about the possiblity of Iran building a missle base on some islands north of South America? Anyone hear of that or can confirm or deny said report?

They've been in discussions w/ Venezuela for a while now. It varies between them selling the missiles to Venezuela and Venezuela leasing them some islands for a base. Iran has missiles that can reach much of Europe from Iran, so they could reach the US if based in Venezuela.

With Chavez near death from his cancer, it remains unclear how serious to take the talk.

[Apollo-11]

Some updated news on Stuxnet. It appears, as some have suspected, that the US and Israel collaborated on the project. This is an unusually detailed article; well worth the read:

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/01/world/middleeast/obama-ordered-wave-of-cyberattacks-against-iran.html?_r=3&pagewanted=2&seid=auto&smid=tw-nytimespolitics&pagewanted=all


On a related note, there is a new malware package called Flame which is "20 times as sophisticated as Stuxnet". It may have been around for 2 years or more, and may have been developed as a generic cyber-espionage tool against Middle Eastern countries. This is a good read:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flame_%28malware%29

[Zultra]

Israel has over 300 odd nuclear bombs, Iran has none, if I was Iran I would get one ASAP.

Iran ain't dumb.

[Blacksmith]

Some updated news on Stuxnet. It appears, as some have suspected, that the US and Israel collaborated on the project.

I am about the spill the beans on the truth behind the alien landings at Roswell.

It was me that ordered the aliens summarily executed for their intrusion into US air space. I had no choice you see, I had to be strong and protect American lives. Please vote Blacksmith in November for a strong America.

[TC]

Armada of British naval power massing in the Gulf as Israel prepares an Iran strike

An armada of US and British naval power is massing in the Persian Gulf in the belief that Israel is considering a pre-emptive strike against Iran’s covert nuclear weapons programme.

Battleships, aircraft carriers, minesweepers and submarines from 25 nations are converging on the strategically important Strait of Hormuz in an unprecedented show of force as Israel and Iran move towards the brink of war.

Western leaders are convinced that Iran will retaliate to any attack by attempting to mine or blockade the shipping lane through which passes around 18 million barrels of oil every day, approximately 35 per cent of the world’s petroleum traded by sea.

A blockade would have a catastrophic effect on the fragile economies of Britain, Europe the United States and Japan, all of which rely heavily on oil and gas supplies from the Gulf.

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most congested international waterways. It is only 21 miles wide at its narrowest point and is bordered by the Iranian coast to the north and the United Arab Emirates to the south.

In preparation for any pre-emptive or retaliatory action by Iran, warships from more than 25 countries, including the United States, Britain, France, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, will today begin an annual 12-day exercise...

...The main naval exercise comes as President Barack Obama is scheduled to meet Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, today to discuss the Iranian crisis.

Many within the Obama administration believe that Israel will launch a pre-emptive strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities before the US presidential elections, an act which would signal the failure of one of Washington’s key foreign policy objectives.

Both Downing Street and Washington hope that the show of force will demonstrate to Iran that Nato and the West will not allow President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the Iranian leader, to develop a nuclear armoury or close Hormuz.

Sir John Sawers, the head of MI6, the Secret Intelligence Service, reportedly met the Israeli prime minister and Ehud Barak, his defence secretary, two weeks ago in an attempt to avert military action against Iran.

But just last week Mr Netanyahu signalled that time for a negotiated settlement was running out when he said: “The world tells Israel 'Wait, there’s still time.’ And I say, 'Wait for what? Wait until when?’

“Those in the international community who refuse to put red lines before Iran don’t have a moral right to place a red light before Israel.”...(continued at link)

[Unobtainium]

Given the tensions throughout the middle east at the moment, any strike on Iran is potentially going to impact on the entire region.

Here's hoping everyone keeps their heads screwed on, and no-one does anything dumber than usual or the results could be nasty for everyone.

[kcor_77]

Israel Has already bombed one light water reactor in Iraq that was still under construction. I don't remember all the details but they drew heavy critisism from it. If they did it once I believe they might do it again. I hope that a agrement is reached before it comes to that.

[abelru]

And now fox is reporting that power lines supplying a reactor were blown up a month ago. This comes from an Iranian nuclear official. Hopefully our efforts at preventing a nuclear Iran will remain on this small of a scale, if this is, in fact, our handiwork.


http://www.myfoxdc.com/story/19561388/i ... t-facility

[kcor_77]

I really hope this ends soon without any problems. I do belive Israel will end up taking matters into their own hands before to long just my opinion though.

Iran could launch a pre-emptive strike on Israel if it was sure the Jewish state was preparing to attack it, a senior commander of its elite Revolutionary Guards was quoted as saying on Sunday.

Amir Ali Hajizadeh, a brigadier general in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, made the comments to Iran's state-run Arabic language Al-Alam television.

"Iran will not start any war but it could launch a pre-emptive attack if it was sure that the enemies are putting the final touches to attack it," Al-Alam said, paraphrasing the military commander.

Hajizadeh said any attack on Iranian soil could trigger "World War Three".

Linky http://news.yahoo.com/iran-commander-sa ... 52450.html

[Recon101]

I've been watching the nut fest in the Middle East unfold for a long time. After personally seeing how radicals the radicals in that part of the world are... It's only a matter of time until someone pulls the trigger and the slug out begins. Tensions are high in that part of the planet for a long time now.

Maybe not today, maybe not tomorrow. Maybe not even ten years from now. But someone is gonna get a bad temper and do something dumber then the norm. So buckle up boys and girls. It's going to be a long messy chaotic ride.


"All typos brought to you by iPhone."