The Myth of "The Grey Man"

[Brymstone666]

I believe that every situation is different and will determine what tactics would be best suited for a particular set of circumstances.

In a martial law situation where there might be checkpoints and military/law enforcement going door to door looking for weapons and ammo, being grey might be the best tactic IMO. Historically whenever there has been natural disasters, civil unrest or other crises that warrant the declaration of martial law, military and law enforcement personnel have been notorious for disarming civilians.

In a socio-economic crisis as was the case in Argentina, being grey when the authorities were around was a must (i.e. concealed weapons/ammo) due to the fact that they would at the very least confiscate your weapon and at the very worst arrest you. The flipside to this would be appearing "armed and dangerous" to the many thugs, muggers, kidnappers and "purse-snatchers" that plagued every street corner, gas station, grocery store and bus stop in order to deter a possible confrontation.

The least likely event would be a PAW scenario in which it would be every man for himself. There would be times you would have to be stealthy and try to avoid certain areas or people should they have the advantage of numbers/weapons. There might be circumstances in which you would want to make a show of force to deter possible conflict. There may be a situation that would require you to conceal your weapons such as going to a make-shift market that does not allow the open carry of firearms. This is of course all hypothetical but helps illustrate the point that numerous tactics and strategies may have to be employed dependent upon the current environment and circumstances one finds themselves in.

[ODA 226]

I believe that every situation is different and will determine what tactics would be best suited for a particular set of circumstances.

In a martial law situation where there might be checkpoints and military/law enforcement going door to door looking for weapons and ammo, being grey might be the best tactic IMO. Historically whenever there has been natural disasters, civil unrest or other crises that warrant the declaration of martial law, military and law enforcement personnel have been notorious for disarming civilians.

In a socio-economic crisis as was the case in Argentina, being grey when the authorities were around was a must (i.e. concealed weapons/ammo) due to the fact that they would at the very least confiscate your weapon and at the very worst arrest you.

The two conditions that you listed above helps to prove my experience that the "Grey Man" doesn't exist.

In both situations, it won't matter how you are dressed or what you look like. If you are spotted by the "authorities", YOU WILL BE STOPPED AND SEARCHED! If you are caught with any type of weapon, YOU WILL BE DETAINED and or JAILED!

[mystic_1]

In both situations, it won't matter how you are dressed or what you look like. If you are spotted by the "authorities", YOU WILL BE STOPPED AND SEARCHED!

Here's the thing though, isn't the whole point of the "grey man" thing to avoid being spotted?

That's one of the problems I keep having with this whole thread. The logic presented seems to be "There's no point in trying to avoid attracting attention, because once you've attracted attention...."

This is akin to saying "there's no point in trying to avoid motor vehicle accidents, because once you've hit something...."

See what I'm saying?

mystic_1

[Hollis]

Mystic, yes and no. Grey man is just one of the tactics. If you are hiding in a crowd, a doable one. Standing in the desert or alone in a little boat out in the middle of the ocean, it is not going to work.

Also it might have to do with perception. What you perceive and what the view perceives can be two completely different things. Some one previously mentioned, ones action can greatly effect the outcome of being noticed.

If you perceived that you have been noticed, then you might react to that. The reality is the other person may have looked and you but did not really see you. It is the reaction that would give you away. That is just one example.

There are times when ones on physical attributes would make being a grey man impossible. You are 6'6" tall and in a crowd of pigmys or little children.

Also on action, in a crowd a person may naturally fit in, but their actions may say to a predator, "victim". Sometimes there is a reason a predator chooses one person over another. So it also depends on the person who wishes to be invisible too.

So, the grey man concept is probably the weakest of all tactics to avoid being spotting, there are too many unknown variables. Maybe more in line with a last ditch effort before running like hell.

[ninja-elbow]

I think ODA's point is the direction you are in Mystic. The popular vision is that some article of clothing and color of gear will make it so the "authorities" will not notice or ignore you.

"My car is a Chevy Bronco - hence I get into no accidents."

v.

"I avoid accidents in motor vehicles by studying how accidents happen, where they happen, training to be safer, or just not going where a lot of car accidents happen."

[mystic_1]

I think ODA's point is the direction you are in Mystic. The popular vision is that some article of clothing and color of gear will make it so the "authorities" will not notice or ignore you.

"My car is a Chevy Bronco - hence I get into no accidents."

v.

"I avoid accidents in motor vehicles by studying how accidents happen, where they happen, training to be safer, or just not going where a lot of car accidents happen."

I see what you're saying, however I have yet to come across anyone saying "my pack is red, hence authorities will ignore me not matter what else I do". Most posts I have seen referencing the "grey man" thing are talking about avoidance using a variety of techniques, not just relying on one magical totem.

In that sense I see this thread as a bit of a straw-man argument, as the "my pack is red so I am safe" stance doesn't appear to me to be the popular vision, accepted by many here as Survival Gospel, and so on. I may be wrong, but it seems to me that if anyone here carries this belief, they are in the fringe minority.

mystic_1

[Kommander]

23 pages in and we STILL have no agreement on what the grey man is...

[mystic_1]

23 pages in and we STILL have no agreement on what the grey man is...

In which case, how can we say it doesn't exist?!?!

I think we all agree, though, that "the grey man" does NOT mean, "if I wear X that is colored Y, it will protect/conceal me".

mystic_1

[Brymstone666]

I believe that every situation is different and will determine what tactics would be best suited for a particular set of circumstances.

In a martial law situation where there might be checkpoints and military/law enforcement going door to door looking for weapons and ammo, being grey might be the best tactic IMO. Historically whenever there has been natural disasters, civil unrest or other crises that warrant the declaration of martial law, military and law enforcement personnel have been notorious for disarming civilians.

In a socio-economic crisis as was the case in Argentina, being grey when the authorities were around was a must (i.e. concealed weapons/ammo) due to the fact that they would at the very least confiscate your weapon and at the very worst arrest you.

The two conditions that you listed above helps to prove my experience that the "Grey Man" doesn't exist.

In both situations, it won't matter how you are dressed or what you look like. If you are spotted by the "authorities", YOU WILL BE STOPPED AND SEARCHED! If you are caught with any type of weapon, YOU WILL BE DETAINED and or JAILED!

Being "grey" is simply that you try not to stand out. If there is one thing that civil/federal/military authorities are looking for, it is someone who stands out. This has everything to do with how you dress, how you carry and conduct yourself while trying to remain "unnoticed"

The example of Argentina was not that the authorities arbitrarily went around arresting people, but if you looked like a thug and were brandishing a weapon or carrying one in plain view, the chances of being arrested were extremely good. Many people carried concealed weapons as a matter of necessity, they just didn't advertise the fact that they were armed.

In the case of military/law enforcement searches and checkpoints, it would benefit one to appear like a normal, law abiding citizen with nothing to declare, but have a weapon/ammo for self-defense that could be easily hidden (i.e. in a vehicle, your home or cached somewhere ahead of time)

The main point is that if you appear as though you might be carrying a weapon or a possible "threat", much less having a weapon in plain sight, the likelihood of you being detained, searched and having your weapon confiscated and/or arrested greatly increases in most situations notwithstanding a PAW scenario.

There is no hardfast rules as to whether or not the "grey man" philosophy will or will not work in every situation. Common sense should be applied to all potential survival strategies/tactics. There will always be numerous variables that will determine if you will be singled out or not. Being in the wrong place at the wrong time most always places one in a precarious position regardless of how you are dressed, or the color of your backpack, shirt, jacket or make of shoes you've decided to wear.

The "grey man" approach should simply be looked at as one tool in your survival toolbox, you will need many more strategies and tactics in order to meet the many challenges that are posed by various crisis scenarios.

[raptor]

23 pages in and we STILL have no agreement on what the grey man is...

That is exactly why the pro AND con thread has its own sticky. There are many good and compelling points made in both threads.


So let the debate continue and let the best logic prevail.

[ninja-elbow]

I have not literally seen anyone say "my pack is red, I will be left alone". I have seen people figurtively said that though. We have a thread in BOG where a poster is saying:

I understand not wanting to look like a SWAT team member on my way out of LA. But once into the field you need a lot to stay truly hidden. You can't walk around with your bright blue REI tent on your pack and expect to stay hidden. Anyone in the field worth half their salt will notice and pick you out for far less. A handkerchief that's slightly off color for the terrain, the reflection off things hanging off your pack (compass, metal whistle, what have you...) Guys like ODA have a real advantage over non-trained civilian counterparts. When it comes to stealth. Like night and day advantages. And if you don't think they'll take advantage of that in a situation where it's come down to you or the trained professional. Your wrong. People get hungry all reason goes out the window. Your kid gets hungry. It's no holds barred.

And then there are the ones coming from the other side.

What this thread is about, and the title of it holds true, is that you must be congruant with your scenerio. Know your scenerio, be in your scenerio, and care less about your get-up.

[Hollis]

Being "grey" is simply that you try not to stand out.

That is the point and part of it is; in order not to stand out, one must stand with something. There is a reason for the herd or why people group.

In a SHTF situation, I know I would avoid being in a herd. That is assuming not many people are remaining and there is no rule of law.

If a person is running with a herd, then the grey man is the thing to be. It does not say you won't be eaten, it say, you won't be singled out, until you are cut from the herd.

[KnightoftheRoc]

This is a great thread, and I'd hate to see it locked. I think we may be risking that with the use of the word "herd" in the context of people. Swap it for "crowd", maybe? This way, we can avoid the people nonsense getting hauled into it.

Back OT: Trying not to stand out- I doubt anyone would argue the wisdom to this. In fact, I'd say that without a crowd, you can't be grey. Grey implies blending in, in this case, into the crowd. Tough to accomplish if there's no crowd to blend into. What works to help you blend into a crowd of similarly clad/equipped people can easily make you stand out like a neon sign if the crowd is gone.

Consider- ever try to pick out one guy in particular from a group of uniformed people, like soldiers in a formation? It's not easy, even using rank insignia and facial recognition. The same soldier, to stick with the example, in his cammie jammies, on a city street, and crowd or not, he's suddenly a LOT easier to spot. Put him in civvies, equip him like everyone else, and he disappears again.

[bigmattdaddywack]

subbed

[Shadow_Man]

I think it would be wise for many folks here to seriously read The Art of War by Sun Tzu. It is quite literally a plethora of Grey Man strategies.

- If you are weak, appear strong.
- if you are strong, appear weak.
- If you have far to go, appear as if on a short journey and so on and so on.

Being Grey has nothing to do with color, rather it has everything to do with hiding in plain sight. By camouflage, confusion, misdirection, misinterpretation, you must think like the chameleon, that is constantly adapting and changing his appearance in order to not draw attention to himself. He avoids confrontation through stealth and patience, however, once he as moved within range of his prey his attack is lightening swift! That is being Grey....until it is time - not to be Grey.

Can you be Grey in every situation and circumstance...of course not. Will there be times when there is nothing to blend into or hide behind, absolutely. Those times and situations can only, as much as possible, be avoided and if suddenly exposed you must be ready to move swiftly and if necessary as violently and as quickly as possible in order to dissolve back into the shadows. Your goal is to keep your adversary off balance. Constantly unsure, stumbling and bumbling to ascertain your position, intention and direction.

Infantry Marines are taught that in combat if caught in an ambush the only way to survive is to immediately assault directly through the ambush. Attack the attackers. Make them seek cover to avoid being hit. Turn the ambush back onto the ambushers. Sometimes that is the only way to ensure survival.

So what is Grey? It is the mild mannered Clark Kent, unthreatening, simple minded, naive, etc., until it is time to become Superman. It is the Chameleon stealthfully moving right in front of your very eyes, but you cannot see him. It is the shadow in the corner of your eye, that when you look, you see nothing.

Grey is the difficult and challenging Art of simply not being.

[phil_in_cs]

- If you are weak, appear strong.
- if you are strong, appear weak.
- If you have far to go, appear as if on a short journey and so on and so on.

I think part of the point is that if you appear, some people will kill you for your grey worthless clothing. If you are weak, they will kill you for spite. If you are strong, they will kill you from a distance.

[squinty]

How would the Grey Man have blended in near the MacArthur Causeway in Miami? There were bystanders, was Ronald Poppo just closer to Rudy Eugene - maybe they knew each other - than other pedestrians? Or was he more obviously vulnerable? Any way he could have blended better or acted sufficiently nonchalant to avoid RE's attack?

I think keeping your distance from such a threat would be paramount - going unnoticed at a distance is better than being spotted while making that distance, but if I had to pick one or the other I'd still pick putting real estate between myself and RE as plan A, whereas trying to go unnoticed by him or act in a way unlikely to provoke or set him off would be a much less preferable plan B, (or a hopeful adjunct to plan A.)

[ODA 226]

- If you are weak, appear strong.
- if you are strong, appear weak.
- If you have far to go, appear as if on a short journey and so on and so on.

I think part of the point is that if you appear, some people will kill you for your grey worthless clothing. If you are weak, they will kill you for spite. If you are strong, they will kill you from a distance.

And that is why a "Strategy of Avoidance" is best!

[Zen Chameleon]

Either way I thought I'd mention that chameleons are commonly known as solitary animals except during mating...

Also a clip from Wiki:

"The primary purpose of color change in chameleons is social signaling, with camouflage secondary. Color change signals a chameleon's physiological condition and intentions to other chameleons.[14][15] Chameleons tend to show darker colors when angered, or attempting to scare or intimidate others, while males show lighter, multi-colored patterns when courting females.[citation needed]

Some species, such as Smith's dwarf chameleon, adjust their colors for camouflage in accordance with the vision of the specific predator species (bird or snake) that they are being threatened by.[16]

The desert dwelling Namaqua Chameleon also uses color change as an aid to thermoregulation, becoming black in the cooler morning to absorb heat more efficiently, then a lighter grey color to reflect light during the heat of the day. It may show both colors at the same time, neatly separated left from right by the spine"

[ITZombie]

Without reading the entire thread what I surmise so far is that the grey man is transitory and subject to situational conditions. What is grey in one light is white in another and black in yet another.

But to be grey is a) (best solution) is not be there at all or b) not stand out from what is there and hope the odds are on your side when it comes time for the big bad to pick a target or c) if you do stand out be at such a distance in terms of cost, real distance and effort that less costly targets are preferable to said big bad.

That about it?

Oh and d) make sure it's not personal cause personal trumps cost, distance and effort.

[Tater Raider]

Without reading the entire thread what I surmise so far is that the grey man is transitory and subject to situational conditions. What is grey in one light is white in another and black in yet another.

But to be grey is a) (best solution) is not be there at all or b) not stand out from what is there and hope the odds are on your side when it comes time for the big bad to pick a target or c) if you do stand out be at such a distance in terms of cost, real distance and effort that less costly targets are preferable to said big bad.

That about it?

Oh and d) make sure it's not personal cause personal trumps cost, distance and effort.

Being "greyman" is to take the philosophy, "It's the nail that sticks up that gets hammered down," and apply it to any prepper or survival situation. Don't have a car that attracts attention, don't dress in a manner that attracts attention, don't kit yourself in a manner that attracts attention, and for the love of Mike don't act in a manner that calls attention to yourself. What this entails is knowing your AO and any AO you plan to go through.

If you stand out, be it at a distance or no, you aren't being greyman.

Greyman is all about the above, not about sticking around in an area and depending on being grey to get you through. It's a tool in the arsenal, not a solution to the issue or substitute for good judgement. If a huricane is on the way going grey will not help you at all, but if a riot breaks out and you decide "I'm outta here" being grey can help you exit safely when dressing tactical while rioters are attacking LEO will be a lot more likely to get you assaulted, maimed, or even killed.

There is a lot of confusion on this. Just think "social camoflauge" and you pretty much have the whole concept.

[Hollis]

Tater, That will work if you are in a large crowd that you can blend in with and mostly in our current situation and you are in a city. If you are the only one, then you are the attention getter.

[Tater Raider]

Tater, That will work if you are in a large crowd that you can blend in with and mostly in our current situation and you are in a city. If you are the only one, then you are the attention getter.

Whose attention would I be getting?

It's not just for large crowds either. The clothing I wear can double as camo while not being camo - it's all earth tones and different colors to break up my outline yet it's totally appropriate for everyday wear at anything this side of formal attire only. My Jeep isn't highly modified and is tan so dirt doesn't show up much and I can blend it in easily in anything short of a large urban setting which doesn't exsist in my AO (unless the bike rack and canoe is loaded up and that's going to stick out a bit whatever the vehicle is). I don't open carry (do not confuse with I don't carry - I might be). My BOB is not tactical in style or color (and is also earthtone). All of these are greyman suitable for nearly any enviroment I may find myself in. None of this has a blessed thing to do with if I bug-in or bug-out, those are reactions to a disaster and not preperations for one.

All of the above work all the way down to if I'm alone and traveling (likely) and a group comes across me (possible if not probible, even in a rural setting). I appear mostly harmless but have a few things, nothing major, nothing that says, "Jump him and grab his stuff!" or, "He's gonna kill us, get him first!" and retain the ability to conceal myself with minimal effort. That is what being greyman is about.

Greyman a myth? I think folk have a myth-conception of what greyman is all about.

[Hollis]

Tater, this thread is rather long and this has been discussed. In a terrible situation, we will all make our own call. How you play it, is your business.

I tend to agree with ODA and on other members who share the same understanding. I place my understanding on my personal experiences and educations. I have been in some interesting countries, where things got pretty serious. I guess a part of this is who we envision what a SHTF situation will be like and the odds are, it will not be as we imagine. Being on only person wandering around will grab other people's attention. Probably for reason you may not understand or know about. There are some really nasty people out there. Problem in a SHTF situation, is that there is no law and order and unless you know someone, you have no clue as to what they are and what they are willing to do. They probably have the same view as you.

As ODA last post: "And that is why a "Strategy of Avoidance" is best!"

That is 100% what one needs to do. Invisible is way better than being grey.

That is what I will do. If I find myself in a with a group of people, than grey is a tactic. I prefer not to be in with a group of people that I do not know or trust. If you are going to be with people, trust is probably the biggest factor. If it does not exist, It is a very good reason not to associate with them.

Ask anyone who was in a team, in a combat unit, those places a horrible death waits anyone.