Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

[KnightoftheRoc]

Funny thing. You guys remember Iceland? One of the countries in "PIIGS" that were set to crash and burn if they defaulted?

They defaulted.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/2f8e6e72-5d71 ... z1nHo1lhC6

Arion, the bank created from the assets of failed Kaupthing, has established a €1bn international covered bond programme, the first by an Icelandic lender since the country’s banking crisis.

And after reorganizing, rewriting some laws, reinvesting in better things and doing other stuff, they got their act together well enought that Fitch raised their credit rating over investment grade again.


http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-201 ... 09137.html

Fitch Ratings lifted its rating on Iceland to investment grade, citing the nation's progress in stabilizing its economy and pushing ahead with structural reforms.

The upgrade puts Iceland's long-term foreign currency issuer default rating at triple-B-minus, placing it on the first rung of investment-grade territory. The outlook is stable.

Interesting. Thoughts?

One thing Iceland has going for it, is the switch from petroleum they are undergoing. Starting with municipal buses, they are starting to use hydrogen as a fuel, more and more. With their plentiful geothermic resources, they can generate steam a-plenty to generate electric, which they are using to fracture seawater (another plentiful resource for them) to get the hydrogen. These resources are not shared by other countries, either in this pairing, or as separate things in the way Iceland has them- either the geothermal is too expensively tapped, or the seawater isn't there (no coastline) for some countries.

This is only one aspect to what I'm sure is a many pronged approach to solving their problems, but it's certainly proving to be a productive endeavor.

[TC]

Just a quick note, Iceland was not a PIIGS country (Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece, Spain), is not in the EU and does not use the Euro.

This has given them the ability to make decisions that PIIGS countries do not have, so it's not exactly comparing like to like. I do take your point though, as have many others.

[phil_in_cs]

Interesting. Thoughts?

Default worked well for Iceland, and very badly for those that lent them money. If you think the Greek bailout is to benefit the Greeks, you haven't been paying close attention.

[phil_in_cs]

Eurogroup head cannot rule out third Greek bailout
Fri, Feb 24 2012
LONDON (Reuters) - The head of the Eurogroup of euro zone finance ministers, Jean-Claude Juncker, said on Friday he could not rule out that Greece may need a third bailout.
Euro zone finance ministers struck a deal on Tuesday for a second bailout program for Greece that includes new financing of 130 billion euros and aims to cut Greece's debt to 121 percent of GDP by 2020.
Asked in a television interview if he could be sure Greece would not need a third bailout, Juncker said: "You cannot really exclude that, although we should not have as a starting assumption that a third program will be (needed)."

more at the link http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/02/ ... 0Q20120224

[TC]

S&P downgrades Greece to selective default

(Reuters) - Standard & Poor's on Monday cut Greece long-term ratings to 'selective default', the second ratings agency to proceed with a widely expected downgrade after the country announced a bond swap plan to lighten its debt burden.

S&P said that once the debt exchange is concluded, it will likely raise Greece's sovereign credit rating to the 'CCC' category.

"We lowered our sovereign credit ratings on Greece to 'SD' following the Greek government's retroactive insertion of collective action clauses (CACs)," the U.S. ratings agency said.

It said Greece's retroactive insertion of CACs -- which enforce losses on investors who do not voluntarily sign up to the offer -- changed the original terms of the affected debt and made the exchange a "distressed debt restructuring".

Greece formally launched the bond swap on Friday. Under the deal, bondholders are to take losses of 53.5 percent on the nominal value of their Greek bonds, with actual losses put at around 74 percent in real terms.

S&P's move follows that of Fitch, which last week cut Greece's long-term ratings to its lowest rating above a default as a result of the bond exchange plan.

[Kommander]

So its safe to say that the rating agencies are not impressed with the latest bailout?

[phil_in_cs]

So its safe to say that the rating agencies are not impressed with the latest bailout?

They changed to a conditional default since Greece is conditionally defaulting - if you aren't one of the select group you are going to get much less than you were promised. IMHO, a rating company should predict what will happen (they are supposed to be what you base risk estimates on) rather than trailing what is happening (downgrading based on the default)

[SeerSavant]

Meanwhile, back in the States;

http://trib.com/news/state-and-regional/govt-and-politics/wyoming-house-advances-doomsday-bill/article_af6e1b2b-0ca4-553f-85e9-92c0f58c00bd.html#ixzz1nRiojqAL

House Bill 85 passed on first reading by a voice vote. It would create a state-run government continuity task force, which would study and prepare Wyoming for potential catastrophes, from disruptions in food and energy supplies to a complete meltdown of the federal government.
The task force would look at the feasibility of:
Wyoming issuing its own alternative currency, if needed. And House members approved an amendment Friday by state Rep. Kermit Brown, R-Laramie, to have the task force also examine conditions under which Wyoming would need to implement its own military draft, raise a standing army…

First part I get, the last part....

States begin to prepare for economic collapse in the US

http://www.examiner.com/finance-examiner-in-national/states-begin-to-prepare-for-economic-collapse-the-us

On Friday, February 24th, legislators in the state of Wyoming began passage of a bill that will launch a study to determine how the state would deal with a complete economic or political collapse in the US. The state of Wyoming is just one of several states across the country seeking ways to deal with the very real potential of an economic collapse as debt and dollar devaluation threatens the monetary fabric of American society.

While the state of Wyoming is in the early stages of determining a course of action in the case of economic collapse, three other states in 2011 have debated and passed legislation to legalize the use of gold and silver as currency in intra-state transactions. Utah, Virginia, and North Carolina have proposed or are implementing these programs right now, and as dollar devaluation from the Federal Reserve increases, many other states could join in on the discussion.

Dunno about the other states, but I remember Gov. McDonnell saying he would veto the bill... can't find anything more on it.

The threat of local and national economic collapse is no longer a conspiracy, as just last week, Stockton, California became the third major city, along with Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, and Jefferson County, Alabama to prepare for, and declare bankruptcy. This does not include the decline of cities such as Detroit and Baltimore who are pulling back city services in large portions of their municipalities, and leaving large areas open to crime and urban decay.

Here's the thing,
While I understand the need to put plans into effect, as a just incase the dollar fails, scenario... I wonder about the wisdom of an alternate currency within the state for "intra-state transactions".

While I worry about the collapse of the dollar, I worry that this sort of alternate currency would further devalue the dollar from within...

I mean, if people begin to use a different form of currency (barter aside, that's been done for ages, but this is a state sanctioned move) Wouldn't that hasten the decline of the dollar?

I mean, prepping is one thing, speeding up the demise of the economy just seems like a really questionable idea...

[TC]

Meanwhile, back in the States;

http://trib.com/news/state-and-regional/govt-and-politics/wyoming-house-advances-doomsday-bill/article_af6e1b2b-0ca4-553f-85e9-92c0f58c00bd.html#ixzz1nRiojqAL

House Bill 85 passed on first reading by a voice vote. It would create a state-run government continuity task force, which would study and prepare Wyoming for potential catastrophes, from disruptions in food and energy supplies to a complete meltdown of the federal government.
The task force would look at the feasibility of:
Wyoming issuing its own alternative currency, if needed. And House members approved an amendment Friday by state Rep. Kermit Brown, R-Laramie, to have the task force also examine conditions under which Wyoming would need to implement its own military draft, raise a standing army…

First part I get, the last part....

Don't worry, Hawkins and Jake will save you.

On a more serious note, is this going on anywhere else? Is there any precedent for such preparations by individual states at times of crisis in the recent past (i.e. 1900 onwards)?

[raptor]

First part I get, the last part....

I am not knocking Wyoming. It is a nice state. That if they mobilized and drafted 100% of their population they would have a standing army of only 568,000 people.

http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/56000.html

Most large cities have more population than that.

So yes I agree a strange study.

[driftking777]

I am not knocking Wyoming. It is a nice state. That if they mobilized and drafted 100% of their population they would have a standing army of only 568,000 people.

http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/56000.html

Most large cities have more population than that.

So yes I agree a strange study.

Have you been to Wyoming before? Lol.

On a more serious note, makes me wonder if there is a way they can make people that work in Wyoming but claim another state as home (like south Dakota, north Dakota and Montana) claim the state as resident so they can draft them? Many that work in Wyoming aren't really from there due to the oil/coal boom going on there. (A lot of people that claim another state do actually reside in Wyoming.)

[raptor]

I am not knocking Wyoming. It is a nice state. That if they mobilized and drafted 100% of their population they would have a standing army of only 568,000 people.

http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/56000.html

Most large cities have more population than that.

So yes I agree a strange study.

Have you been to Wyoming before? Lol.

On a more serious note, makes me wonder if there is a way they can make people that work in Wyoming but claim another state as home (like south Dakota, north Dakota and Montana) claim the state as resident so they can draft them? Many that work in Wyoming aren't really from there due to the oil/coal boom going on there. (A lot of people that claim another state do actually reside in Wyoming.)

I have driven through the state several times. Jackson Hole is very nice as is the southern part. Any place in any oil patch area is always less nice. I think the same guy in charge of military base locations is also in charge of picking oil patch areas.


I think that is what they trying to figure out. There are a lot of issues if a state implements a draft for a state militia not the least of which is Militia Act of 1903 which would have some impact on what they are trying to do. In any event I am sure evasion of any such draft would be easy. establish a domicile in another state and thus not be a citizen of Wyoming. They cannot cross borders...unless they have an army....

[Kommander]

Here's the thing,
While I understand the need to put plans into effect, as a just incase the dollar fails, scenario... I wonder about the wisdom of an alternate currency within the state for "intra-state transactions".

While I worry about the collapse of the dollar, I worry that this sort of alternate currency would further devalue the dollar from within...

I mean, if people begin to use a different form of currency (barter aside, that's been done for ages, but this is a state sanctioned move) Wouldn't that hasten the decline of the dollar?

I mean, prepping is one thing, speeding up the demise of the economy just seems like a really questionable idea...

If things get to the point where an "alternate currency" can hasten the decline of the dollar then the dollar is done for anyway. I would think that if the dollar is going to collapse then having it collapse and getting it out of the way as fast as possible is better than a long slow agonizing slide into oblivion.

[SeerSavant]

If things get to the point where an "alternate currency" can hasten the decline of the dollar then the dollar is done for anyway. I would think that if the dollar is going to collapse then having it collapse and getting it out of the way as fast as possible is better than a long slow agonizing slide into oblivion.

I can understand that in concept... But in real world terms, are we really that close? And if we are, isn't there a better way than certain states setting up shop, while other states are clearly going to fail and fail hard. This would result in a either a max exodus of people into stronger areas, which would cause it's own huge series of problems (hence the militia?). If we aren't that close and there is a chance to turn it all around, or having the fed devalue the money themselves or set an alternate currency for the nation in the eventuality of a default (personally, I think it's a foregone conclusion that the dollar is dying... but how soon, I just don't know.) so that there can be some softening of the damage caused by the crossover.

I mean, if it's bad enough for states to fend for themselves...then hypothetically speaking, don't really have much of a union anymore do we?

There are a lot of issues if a state implements a draft for a state militia not the least of which is Militia Act of 1903 which would have some impact on what they are trying to do. In any event I am sure evasion of any such draft would be easy. establish a domicile in another state and thus not be a citizen of Wyoming.

On the one hand, we have some prepping for an eventual collapse of the dollar... But on the other hand, there is a whole lotta scary in the idea of forming a state militia for the purpose of defending the state... Against who?
This makes it more than a reprise of the Great Depression... Far far worse.

You guys here know a lot about economics, so, to a layman... what would be the impact of a separate currency, in usage in three or more states, and would that affect the dollar? Could this snowball, or would this be a novelty only?
Also, if the dollar did get damaged by it, is there a recourse, or would the federal government be prompted to step in, or is that really gray constitutional areas...
Plus, if a state refused if the government told them to go back to the dollar exclusively or passed a federal law banning alternate currency or something similar, what if the state doesn't comply... then are we talking civil war?

Opinions?
I mean, this is kinda scary ass shit to me...

[raptor]

This is a link to good article discussing this subject.

http://money.cnn.com/2012/02/03/pf/stat ... /index.htm

States are prohibited from issuing a currency. Cities and communities can do so but not states so long as the currency does not look like a US dollar. Which I suspect is written with a broad interpretation of what the Feds consider a resemblence to US currency.

However since gold and silver are no longer legal tender a state could issue and trade in PM or commodity based "currency". It would not be currency so much as batter though.

When states could issue currency it was a mess. A bill good in one state was often worthless in any other state. So interstate commerce was damn near impossible.

[Kommander]

SeerSavant if things actually got as bad as you described then I would not worry about the feds as they will have no way of paying anyone.

[SeerSavant]

SeerSavant if things actually got as bad as you described then I would not worry about the feds as they will have no way of paying anyone.

I'm not so much worried about the fed, If my state and NC planned for this, had a back up in motion, and the dollar has some kind of catastrophic collapse (probably wouldn't be a surprise) or if the dollar fell to the point where the states switched to a back up currency...

I don't imagine that everything would simply reboot and go on as before, it would be rough... But not as rough as a neighboring state that didn't plan, or was simply in no financial position to do the same thing...

I would imagine a mass exodus from one state to the other, (can't say's I would blame them) either a packed highway move (in the first less likely scenario) or a gradual, steady increase of folks looking for work (the latter) which would tax a new, and still struggling temporary economy that just got up and running...

In my head, it's the image of people in the water and a panicked drowning person dragging the person next to them down...


Like all disasters, it's the human reaction that scares me...

Even half as bad as my imagination makes the lesser scary of the scenarios, crime, public systems such as police, fire and rescue, hospitals... all would seem to be pushed past the point of function...

My personal opinion is that the slower the economy collapses, the better the odds of people adapting and surviving thru it... The faster it drops, the more panic, and all the related dangers associated with them...


I'm not saying this will happen, I'm asking is it likely, or is this tin foil hat wearing people in state government...
I mean, I think the dollar has about as much of a future as the Euro... But will there be time to adapt and attempt a rebuild or is it a total collapse, and we are talking a country wide SHTF?

Edit to clarify... Would the actions of bills like this speed up the process/damage a struggling dollar, or is it prudent prepping... Hell, is it even financially feasible for a state to switch over to it's own currency with todays technology and structure?

I worry, so I ask...

[SlobberToofTigger]

It is worth keeping in mind that the British Pound has gone through this exact same issue around 1967. The Pound went from the world reserve currency to a local currency and the small island of Britain survived. When this happens to the US dollar we too will be able to get through it, if we don't act like morons and keep spending and printing money, and then we will end up with Argentina.

It is likely the dollar will be officially devalued so that we can pay our debts and over time we will rise back up as the Brits have done. During the period of readjustment there will be some issues but it will not be the end of the world.

[Kommander]

Not to be a dick but I would not exactly call what's going on in England rising back up.

[Collie of Doom]

I think that any state would be better off drafting legislation to ensure a redundancy in local food, energy, fuel, and medical supplies. Stockpile that stuff. Also alternate forms of emergency communication. These steps would help in any large scale catastrophe big enough to have an impact halfway across the country. In the event the Federal government completely collapses, it's unlikely that Wyoming will be invaded by anyone. I'm not sure that drafting an army would be necessary, though it would be interesting. It's not clear to me that Wyoming has enough population to make its borders defensible if anyone did for some strange reason try to invade. Pressing crews of sand-bag fillers and snow-shovelers into service might be of use though.

[SlobberToofTigger]

Not to be a dick but I would not exactly call what's going on in England rising back up.

I do not believe you are being a male sex organ. You are simply pointing out that the UK is in no way equal to what they were and nor will the US be after our fall. But on the other hand, we have a very reasonable chance of not sliding back into a third world country either.

[Kommander]

The problem we have is that if the US goes down so does everyone else. Unlike the situation with the British there is no one capable of stepping into the void. So instead things would get allot more local and allot messier.

[SlobberToofTigger]

The problem we have is that if the US goes down so does everyone else. Unlike the situation with the British there is no one capable of stepping into the void. So instead things would get allot more local and allot messier.

That is not entirely true. There are quite a number of other countries whose currency's are in a much more positive position than ours and so could step into the position of reserve currency. None of them are perfect but ours is no where near perfect any more. We also have a number of global organizations with reasonable standing that can help build a basket of currencies to replace the dollar. And some of them have already been discussing this exact issue. Further there is really no reason for a single reserve currency any more as computers allow any currency to be converted into any other instantly so banking no longer needs to be done in a single currency. So in short, your fear of the dollars demise for the world, is a bit over blown and though those if us in the US will have a pretty hard landing the world will rebound quickly.

[Kommander]

I'm not worried about reserve currencies in such a scenario. I am much more concerned about the fallout from US consumers being unable to consume cheap stuff made in poor countries and the lack of a world cop.