Iran Nukes

[crypto]

I understood it just fine

[RickOShea]

I hope that is just posturing and contingency planning. If anyone actually expects to need that kind of missile defense frigate there then it is a very serious shooting war they are preparing for.

The USS Mobile Bay, Ticonderoga-class Aegis guided missile cruiser is headed that way (it might already be on station).


"Damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead!"

[crypto]

The big difference between the HMS Daring and the Aegis-class cruisers is that the Aegis are usually used to fling Harpoons and tomahawks, not just SAM's.


Although, as I said earlier, the Vincennes has proven that the Ticonderoga-class has a proven air-air record.

[RickOShea]

The primary gig of an Aegis cruiser is to protect the Carrier TF from swarms of enemy aircraft and anti-ship missiles with it's large compliment of SM-2s (and intercept the occasional ballistic missile with it's SM-3s).

[Bunsen]

If someone wanted to *really* be a dick, they'd send the USS Vincennes back out there.

Sadly, the opportunity to be that much of a dick has passed; the Vincennes was decommissioned in ought five and sold for scrap a year and a half ago.
(The Aegis Combat System sees what you did there and has a pair of SM-2s targeted.)

[J.C.]

I hope that is just posturing and contingency planning. If anyone actually expects to need that kind of missile defense frigate there then it is a very serious shooting war they are preparing for.

Well, to be fair, the Daring is a small defensive vessel. It's there to pick any stray MiG's or F-14's out of the air that decide to cause trouble in the Strait.

It can intercept missiles as well, which is more what I was thinking about.

[TC]

Iran holds military exercise near Afghan border

(Reuters) - Iran launched a military manoeuvre near its border with Afghanistan on Saturday, the semi-official Fars news agency reported, days after naval exercises in the Gulf increased tensions with the West and pushed up oil prices.

Mohammad Pakpour, commander of the Revolutionary Guards' ground forces, said the "Martyrs of Unity" exercises near Khvat, 60 km (40 miles) from Afghanistan, were "aimed at boosting security along the Iranian borders," Fars reported.

The Revolutionary Guards' naval forces' 10-day exercise in the Gulf that ended last Monday worsened relations with Washington days after U.S. President Barack Obama approved sanctions that aim to stop countries buying Iranian oil.

Threats that Iran could close the Strait of Hormuz, which leads out of the Gulf and provides the outlet for most oil from the Middle East, pushed up oil prices and Iran warned Washington not to send an aircraft carrier back into the Gulf.

Forces with the USS John C. Stennis aircraft carrier strike group, the target of Tehran's threat, rescued 13 Iranian fishermen from Somali pirates days after passing through the Strait.

Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi played down the political significance of the rescue.

"On some occasions, Iran has helped and secured the released of many other countries' sailors that had been caught by pirates," he told state-run Press TV.

"This is a humanitarian gesture and it is not related to the countries' relations with each other."

[phil_in_cs]

If someone wanted to *really* be a dick, they'd send the USS Vincennes back out there.

Sadly, the opportunity to be that much of a dick has passed; the Vincennes was decommissioned in ought five and sold for scrap a year and a half ago.
(The Aegis Combat System sees what you did there and has a pair of SM-2s targeted.)

Please avoid the chat threadesque blue print / tiny font stuff here.

[max v]

I understood it just fine

Going by your annual mugshot contributions MTV surely had some effect on you

[Collie of Doom]

I'm sure everything posted here recently is open source, but this is your friendly public service announcement to please mind your OPSEC when discussing even publicly available information on troop movement and weapons capabilities. Thank you, drinks are available in the lobby, end of Intermission.

[Doctorr Fabulous]

I'm sure everything posted here recently is open source, but this is your friendly public service announcement to please mind your OPSEC when discussing even publicly available information on troop movement and weapons capabilities. Thank you, drinks are available in the lobby, end of Intermission.

Yes, be careful discussing what Fox, CNN, MSNBC, Al-jazeera, etc. are reporting. There's a line between OpSec and ludicrous. Don't ost anything that you aren't supposed to, and be carreful of internet sources, but if you saw it on the tv news, you're probably okay.

[TC]

I'm starting to wonder what news story will break next that suggests an increased likelihood of a preemptive strike...

Iran to launch nuclear work in bunker in "near future"

(Reuters) - Iran will in the "near future" start enriching uranium deep inside a mountain, a senior official said, a move likely to further antagonise Western powers which suspect Tehran is seeking nuclear weapons capability.

A decision by the Islamic Republic to conduct sensitive atomic activities at an underground site - offering better protection against any enemy attacks - could complicate diplomatic efforts to resolve the long-running row peacefully.

Iran has said for months that it is preparing to move its highest-grade uranium refinement work to Fordow, a facility near the Shi'ite Muslim holy city of Qom in central Iran, from its main enrichment plant at Natanz...(continued at link)

[phil_in_cs]

I'm starting to wonder what news story will break next that suggests an increased likelihood of a preemptive strike...

Iran to launch nuclear work in bunker in "near future"

(Reuters) - Iran will in the "near future" start enriching uranium deep inside a mountain, a senior official said, a move likely to further antagonise Western powers which suspect Tehran is seeking nuclear weapons capability.

A decision by the Islamic Republic to conduct sensitive atomic activities at an underground site - offering better protection against any enemy attacks - could complicate diplomatic efforts to resolve the long-running row peacefully.

Iran has said for months that it is preparing to move its highest-grade uranium refinement work to Fordow, a facility near the Shi'ite Muslim holy city of Qom in central Iran, from its main enrichment plant at Natanz...(continued at link)

My understanding is that they've been in deep under mountain bunkers for some aspects for quite a while - that's a major reason why they haven't already been hit. Not only are your basic atom bombs 60 year old tech, so is Cheyenne Mountain.

[TC]

I'm starting to wonder what news story will break next that suggests an increased likelihood of a preemptive strike...

Iran to launch nuclear work in bunker in "near future"

(Reuters) - Iran will in the "near future" start enriching uranium deep inside a mountain, a senior official said, a move likely to further antagonise Western powers which suspect Tehran is seeking nuclear weapons capability.

A decision by the Islamic Republic to conduct sensitive atomic activities at an underground site - offering better protection against any enemy attacks - could complicate diplomatic efforts to resolve the long-running row peacefully.

Iran has said for months that it is preparing to move its highest-grade uranium refinement work to Fordow, a facility near the Shi'ite Muslim holy city of Qom in central Iran, from its main enrichment plant at Natanz...(continued at link)

My understanding is that they've been in deep under mountain bunkers for some aspects for quite a while - that's a major reason why they haven't already been hit. Not only are your basic atom bombs 60 year old tech, so is Cheyenne Mountain.

Indeed, I remembered something about a secret underground facility near Qom to that effect. After looking it up, it is the Fordow facility that joint US, UK and French intelligence declared in 2009, which we may have discussed previously in this thread IIRC.

I do still find it strange that there have been so many developments in this matter over such a short space of time recently though. This is especially the case when it comes to Iran seemingly making such provocative moves and making statements that seem unnecessary to me.

Maybe I'm not thinking about it right, but I would have thought that no matter whether their intentions are nuclear power or nuclear weapons, the best policy would be to stay as quiet as possible, go through the motions of appeasing or appearing to comply as long as possible and generally stall until they have reached whatever nuclear goal they have in mind. They could even have made the best of the Stuxnet situation by pretending that it had damaged their program so badly that they had abandoned/suspended it whilst actually continuing the work. Why they are tipping their hand by conducting exercises to simulate sealing the Strait of Hormuz, likely allowing the sacking of a foreign embassy and generally acting in a belligerent manner before they have achieved their goal, I do not understand. I'd welcome any explanations that others may have.

[phil_in_cs]

On the subjects of bunkers built in the 1960's (meaning, 50 year old technology) here's one the Brits built

http://boingboing.net/2011/12/29/inside ... -bunk.html

If the Brits could build that 50 years ago, Iran should be able to accomplish quite a bit today if they choose. The civil engineering involved is quite easier than the atomic and missile work they are doing.

[Collie of Doom]

I'm starting to wonder what news story will break next that suggests an increased likelihood of a preemptive strike...

Iran to launch nuclear work in bunker in "near future"

(Reuters) - Iran will in the "near future" start enriching uranium deep inside a mountain, a senior official said, a move likely to further antagonise Western powers which suspect Tehran is seeking nuclear weapons capability.

A decision by the Islamic Republic to conduct sensitive atomic activities at an underground site - offering better protection against any enemy attacks - could complicate diplomatic efforts to resolve the long-running row peacefully.

Iran has said for months that it is preparing to move its highest-grade uranium refinement work to Fordow, a facility near the Shi'ite Muslim holy city of Qom in central Iran, from its main enrichment plant at Natanz...(continued at link)

My understanding is that they've been in deep under mountain bunkers for some aspects for quite a while - that's a major reason why they haven't already been hit. Not only are your basic atom bombs 60 year old tech, so is Cheyenne Mountain.

Indeed, I remembered something about a secret underground facility near Qom to that effect. After looking it up, it is the Fordow facility that joint US, UK and French intelligence declared in 2009, which we may have discussed previously in this thread IIRC.

I do still find it strange that there have been so many developments in this matter over such a short space of time recently though. This is especially the case when it comes to Iran seemingly making such provocative moves and making statements that seem unnecessary to me.

Maybe I'm not thinking about it right, but I would have thought that no matter whether their intentions are nuclear power or nuclear weapons, the best policy would be to stay as quiet as possible, go through the motions of appeasing or appearing to comply as long as possible and generally stall until they have reached whatever nuclear goal they have in mind. They could even have made the best of the Stuxnet situation by pretending that it had damaged their program so badly that they had abandoned/suspended it whilst actually continuing the work. Why they are tipping their hand by conducting exercises to simulate sealing the Strait of Hormuz, likely allowing the sacking of a foreign embassy and generally acting in a belligerent manner before they have achieved their goal, I do not understand. I'd welcome any explanations that others may have.

You have to take into consideration the "face saving" psychology of leaders in that region of the world. Looking and acting tough is valued over keeping your cards close to your chest. Don't underestimate Iran though, they've had little affiliated cells all over the Middle East and in the West since Lebanon, and they're a capable though scattered asymmetrical threat. Suicide bombers and IEDs in places that aren't used to them could be one effect of striking Iran, regardless of who strikes them.

[survivaljoe]

Thousands of US troops deploying to Israel

[phil_in_cs]

Thousands of US troops deploying to Israel

Source? I dont see that on the bbc or al j

[RickOShea]

Thousands of US troops deploying to Israel

Source? I dont see that on the bbc or al j

I saw it on the Washigton Post and Al Arabiya. It's a big air defence exercise, 7000 - 9000 U.S. troops.

http://english.alarabiya.net/articles/2012/01/08/187141.html

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle-east/israeli-and-us-troops-gear-up-for-major-missle-defense-drill-after-iran-maneuvers/2012/01/05/gIQAE0QqcP_story.html

[DarkAxel]

Thousands of US troops deploying to Israel

Source? I dont see that on the bbc or al j

Google search.

There's a lot of articles about it, but a lot of them are on sites that set off my tinfoil alarm.

[phil_in_cs]

Not to mention we send thousands of troops all over the place all the time to train w/ our friends, allies, and people we'd like to be friends and allies.

If Al-J doesn't see it as significant, I would tend to think it not. And if you want to get the tin foil, there's a civil war going on next door to Israel in a nation we said should have a regime change a few weeks back. Syria will be watching the troops going to Israel way more than Iran will.

[kcor_77]

http://www.richardcyoung.com/terrorism/ ... of-hormuz/

The war drums are beating over Iran’s recent threat to close the Strait of Hormuz. There has been plenty of speculation in the media about whether or not Iran could even do it.The answer, according to Sabahat Khan, an analyst at the Institute for Near East & Gulf Military Analysis (INEGMA), is that Iran is more than capable of closing the strait, but that it might not be able to do so for a long period of time.

Khan wrote in 2010 that Iran could block the strait with a minimum of 300 mines, and that the Islamic Republic owns between 2,000 to 5,000 mines according to various estimates. Marine mines are an inexpensive way for Iran to gain control of the strait. Khan writes that a $1,500 Iranian mine caused the USS Samuel B. Roberts $96 million worth of damage at the end of the Tanker War. That’s a great return on cheap technology for Iran.

Iran would need a minimum three hour uninterrupted block of time to mine the strait. Khan believes Iran would lay the mines using submarines. Stopping these subs from deploying mines would be a critical part of any attempt to keep the strait clear. Khan writes that clearing mines can take up to 200 times as long as laying them. But he goes on to say that critical shipping lanes could be opened in weeks.

[RickOShea]

So it would make sense that there'd be a couple of U.S. fast attacks lurking in the area, just waiting on Iran's old diesel boats to deploy.

[kcor_77]

Iran knows it is in trouble because of the sanctions that will be imposed upon them. I think that they would block the strait to get back at us. If they block the strait even for a short time would drive gas prices up and further hurt the global economy and recovery. This is just my opinion of course.

Anyone else have thoughts on this?