Rising Tensions in the Persian Gulf

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boskone
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Re: Rising Tensions in the Persian Gulf

Post by boskone » Mon Sep 16, 2019 8:44 pm

Stercutus wrote:
Mon Sep 16, 2019 7:26 pm
Israel offers some fascinating options as they have warmed up (the enemy of my enemy is not my enemy type thinking) to the Saudis lately.
Rule 29: The enemy of my enemy is my enemy's enemy. No more. No less.

As long as you don't fall into that "is my friend" bullshit, it's a pretty good attitude.

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Re: Rising Tensions in the Persian Gulf

Post by raptor » Tue Sep 17, 2019 10:49 am

The Israeli attack on the Iraqi reactor at Al-Tuwaythah Nuclear Research Facility (Operation Opera) shows Israel is capable of projecting power albeit in a limited way.
https://theaviationist.com/2017/06/07/3 ... r-reactor/

However, Bagdad is about the limit of their radius of action. Any air attack that they would mount against Iran would require in air refueling over Arab countries and as a result their tacit cooperation or at least turning off their radars to imitate Sgt Schultz. Still that would limit deniability for that country. They could of course use drones which would have reduced ordinance delivery capability but would have the advantage of being expendable.

However Israel does have several Dolphin class subs that have air independent propulsion systems which would allow them to transit to the Straights of Hormuz or simply get within range of Iranian targets and launch one of their Popeye Turbo missiles (WTF comes up with these names?!). Israel successfully launched one in a 930 mile test in the Indian Ocean years ago as an obvious exhibit of power projection to the arab states.
https://foxtrotalpha.jalopnik.com/israe ... 1752459324
An Israeli test firing that was supposedly the sub-launched Popeye Turbo occurred in the Indian Ocean and the missile was reported to have flown 930 miles before reaching its target. As such, this is the approximate range some have attached to the missile, although it is likely farther. You can see what is supposedly a picture of mock-up of this weapon here. Although the primary version of the missile packs a nuclear warhead, it is thought that conventional warhead versions may also be fielded
BTW I get a kick out of Israel's official position on its nuclear warheads.
Israel addressing the rest of the world: "We are not saying we have nukes."
The rest of the world: "So you are saying you do not have nukes... right?"
Israel: "We did not say that either".
:clap:

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Re: Rising Tensions in the Persian Gulf

Post by Stercutus » Tue Sep 17, 2019 1:08 pm

Israel's nuclear deterrent will likely not be used in a first strike role. Unless they had proof positive that the Iranians were preparing a strike on Tel Aviv or something. Short of a homeland strike I don't see them employing it.

They have other options.
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Re: Rising Tensions in the Persian Gulf

Post by MPMalloy » Tue Sep 17, 2019 1:46 pm

SA say it's ready to resume 70% of lost oil output - Paul Sankey, oil analyst at Mizuho Securities via Bloomberg

I also agree with Stercutus's observation.

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Re: Rising Tensions in the Persian Gulf

Post by raptor » Tue Sep 17, 2019 1:55 pm

Stercutus wrote:
Tue Sep 17, 2019 1:08 pm
Israel's nuclear deterrent will likely not be used in a first strike role. Unless they had proof positive that the Iranians were preparing a strike on Tel Aviv or something. Short of a homeland strike I don't see them employing it.

They have other options.
I agree.

Use of drones would be more likely (& cheaper) than a "Turbo Popeye" with a conventional warhead.

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Re: Rising Tensions in the Persian Gulf

Post by absinthe beginner » Fri Sep 20, 2019 8:45 am

Iran's Foreign Minister Javad Zarif warns of 'all-out war'

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/09/ ... 07600.html

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Re: Rising Tensions in the Persian Gulf

Post by Stercutus » Fri Sep 20, 2019 1:38 pm

absinthe beginner wrote:
Fri Sep 20, 2019 8:45 am
Iran's Foreign Minister Javad Zarif warns of 'all-out war'

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/09/ ... 07600.html
Funny that. Oil is no longer a weapon now that the US has plenty of it. Seems to me I recall that oil most certainly was a weapon back when OPEC was holding a gun to the head of the West over Israel. Funny how things change when the shoe is on the other foot.
These days of dust
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Re: Rising Tensions in the Persian Gulf

Post by MPMalloy » Fri Sep 20, 2019 2:07 pm

Stercutus wrote:
Fri Sep 20, 2019 1:38 pm
absinthe beginner wrote:
Fri Sep 20, 2019 8:45 am
Iran's Foreign Minister Javad Zarif warns of 'all-out war'

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/09/ ... 07600.html
Funny that. Oil is no longer a weapon now that the US has plenty of it. Seems to me I recall that oil most certainly was a weapon back when OPEC was holding a gun to the head of the West over Israel. Funny how things change when the shoe is on the other foot.
I remember '79. Barely. I was too young for '73.

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Re: Rising Tensions in the Persian Gulf

Post by raptor » Fri Sep 20, 2019 2:35 pm

MPMalloy wrote:
Fri Sep 20, 2019 2:07 pm
I remember '79. Barely. I was too young for '73.
I am old. I remember both quite vividly.

On day gas was $.35 per gallon and the next day it was $.50 then $.99 was big deal.
The following couple of days and there was no gasoline except for regular customers (at least until a law was passed prohibiting this).

I remember people talking about peak oil and how the US will never be energy independent again. The bumper stickers in the Oil Patch that said "Let the Bastards Freeze the Dark".

This BTW was common in 1973/74 the gas pumps were not made to allow any price. They were mechanical so what they would do is divide the cost by 2 and multiply the results of the cost by 2. Also gasoline prices were price controlled then (there were national price controls on almost everything in a stupid attempt to stop inflation). The exception to price controls was "imported petroleum" which could be charged a higher market price. (Nope no one gamed that system for profit :roll:)

Image


That is why I grin when I read this.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... shale-boom

This is from an OIl Patch newspaper so it does have politics...So click on link at your own risk.
https://www.dailycomet.com/news/2019091 ... t-about-it

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Re: Rising Tensions in the Persian Gulf

Post by NT2C » Fri Sep 20, 2019 4:19 pm

MPMalloy wrote:
Fri Sep 20, 2019 2:07 pm
Stercutus wrote:
Fri Sep 20, 2019 1:38 pm
absinthe beginner wrote:
Fri Sep 20, 2019 8:45 am
Iran's Foreign Minister Javad Zarif warns of 'all-out war'

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/09/ ... 07600.html
Funny that. Oil is no longer a weapon now that the US has plenty of it. Seems to me I recall that oil most certainly was a weapon back when OPEC was holding a gun to the head of the West over Israel. Funny how things change when the shoe is on the other foot.
I remember '79. Barely. I was too young for '73.
I remember both. In '73 my dad took to stockpiling gas in 55-gallon drums in a rented garage. Illegal as hell and for sure not recommended but if our trucks weren't running we had zero income.

In '79 I had the utter misfortune to be living in a 3rd-floor apartment, without air conditioning, directly across the street from one of the few gas stations in the area that was getting deliveries. It was open 24 hours and, being it was summertime and hot as hell out, every ice cream truck in Brooklyn seemed to be outside my window playing that stupid song all day and all night. I tried everything short of rage attacking the speakers on the trucks with a sledgehammer, though that was increasingly seeming like a viable option to me. I even took my BB gun and started taking shots at the speakers, hoping against hope to take one out but some of my saner friends hid my BB supply.
Nonsolis Radios Sediouis Fulmina Mitto. - USN Gunner's Mate motto

Sic quemadmodum gladius neminem occidit; occidentis telum est - Seneca the Younger, Epistles

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Re: Rising Tensions in the Persian Gulf

Post by NT2C » Sat Sep 21, 2019 8:01 am

Nonsolis Radios Sediouis Fulmina Mitto. - USN Gunner's Mate motto

Sic quemadmodum gladius neminem occidit; occidentis telum est - Seneca the Younger, Epistles

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Re: Rising Tensions in the Persian Gulf

Post by Stercutus » Sat Sep 21, 2019 8:26 am

NT2C wrote:
Sat Sep 21, 2019 8:01 am
United States sending troops to bolster Saudi defenses after attack

Iran says it will destroy any aggressor

Anyone need a crystal ball to see where this is going?
I don't get it. What's gonna happen next? :? Will the Iranians surrender or something?
These days of dust
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Will blow away with this new Son

But I'll kneel down wait for now
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Know my ground

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Re: Rising Tensions in the Persian Gulf

Post by NT2C » Sat Sep 21, 2019 9:12 am

Stercutus wrote:
Sat Sep 21, 2019 8:26 am
NT2C wrote:
Sat Sep 21, 2019 8:01 am
United States sending troops to bolster Saudi defenses after attack

Iran says it will destroy any aggressor

Anyone need a crystal ball to see where this is going?
I don't get it. What's gonna happen next? :? Will the Iranians surrender or something?
No, silly! They're all going to Disneyland.
Nonsolis Radios Sediouis Fulmina Mitto. - USN Gunner's Mate motto

Sic quemadmodum gladius neminem occidit; occidentis telum est - Seneca the Younger, Epistles

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Re: Rising Tensions in the Persian Gulf

Post by absinthe beginner » Sat Sep 21, 2019 9:29 am

Revolutionary Guards chief warns any country that attacks Islamic republic will be punished with 'full destruction'.

Reminder: Los Angeles is the city with the 2nd biggest Iranian population outside of Tehran.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/09/ ... 00973.html

Iran Vows Major War Even If US Conducts "Limited Strikes"

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ ... ed-strikes

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Re: Rising Tensions in the Persian Gulf

Post by Stercutus » Sat Sep 21, 2019 5:22 pm

It's been almost 30 minutes Iran threatened the US to die in a sea of fire. I am thinking 30 minutes till the next time.
These days of dust
Which we've known
Will blow away with this new Son

But I'll kneel down wait for now
And I'll kneel down
Know my ground

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Re: Rising Tensions in the Persian Gulf

Post by absinthe beginner » Sun Sep 22, 2019 5:14 pm

Iran's president warns America to 'stay away' as it unveils long range missiles that could strike US bases

https://news.yahoo.com/irans-president- ... 25097.html

Iran warns foreign forces to stay out of Gulf, amid new US deployment

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-49785413

Suspected drones disrupt Dubai flights

https://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/g ... ivity.html

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Re: Rising Tensions in the Persian Gulf

Post by Stercutus » Sun Sep 22, 2019 6:36 pm

It's game over man, they have an army flying monkeys, game over....

https://www.scmp.com/news/world/middle- ... ue-missile
These days of dust
Which we've known
Will blow away with this new Son

But I'll kneel down wait for now
And I'll kneel down
Know my ground

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Re: Rising Tensions in the Persian Gulf

Post by absinthe beginner » Tue Sep 24, 2019 4:29 pm

Iran Proxies Escalating? Overnight Rocket Attack Hits US Embassy Compound In Baghdad

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ ... nd-baghdad

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Re: Rising Tensions in the Persian Gulf

Post by woodsghost » Tue Sep 24, 2019 6:01 pm

absinthe beginner wrote:
Sat Sep 21, 2019 9:29 am
Revolutionary Guards chief warns any country that attacks Islamic republic will be punished with 'full destruction'.

Reminder: Los Angeles is the city with the 2nd biggest Iranian population outside of Tehran.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/09/ ... 00973.html

Iran Vows Major War Even If US Conducts "Limited Strikes"

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ ... ed-strikes
I could be wrong, but I bet if those Persian citizens of LA were at all supportive of Islamic Democracy they would have repatriated by now. I am willing to bet those folks are some of the LEAST supportive of the current government. I feel that is akin to saying "Florida is full of Cubans, better watch out for Communist revolution."

I'm not saying "don't worry about Iran." I am saying LA is probably safe from *Persian* partisans. Other groups... milage may vary?
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Re: Rising Tensions in the Persian Gulf

Post by RoneKiln » Wed Sep 25, 2019 1:06 am

absinthe beginner wrote:
Sat Sep 21, 2019 9:29 am

Reminder: Los Angeles is the city with the 2nd biggest Iranian population outside of Tehran.
Do you think we could convince them to keep it?
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Re: Rising Tensions in the Persian Gulf

Post by RoneKiln » Wed Sep 25, 2019 1:16 am

Mixed luck: the world currently has quite a surplus of oil stockpiled at the moment. When SA anounced repairs to their facilities would be done in 10 weeks, everyone I work with laughed hysterically at that nonsense.

They will still be assessing damage in 10 weeks. Some of that equipment has a one year lead time to order. That's after months of engineering. None of that equipment is standard plug and play.

I'm sure they can do magic and get partial functionality back quicky. They'll be limping a long time though.
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Re: Rising Tensions in the Persian Gulf

Post by MPMalloy » Wed Sep 25, 2019 8:12 am

RoneKiln wrote:
Wed Sep 25, 2019 1:16 am
Mixed luck: the world currently has quite a surplus of oil stockpiled at the moment. When SA anounced repairs to their facilities would be done in 10 weeks, everyone I work with laughed hysterically at that nonsense.

They will still be assessing damage in 10 weeks. Some of that equipment has a one year lead time to order. That's after months of engineering. None of that equipment is standard plug and play.

I'm sure they can do magic and get partial functionality back quicky. They'll be limping a long time though.
Do you work in the oil industry?

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Re: Rising Tensions in the Persian Gulf

Post by absinthe beginner » Wed Sep 25, 2019 9:13 am

Iran ready to accept nuclear deal changes if U.S. returns, lifts sanctions: spokesman

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa- ... SKBN1WA11A

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Re: Rising Tensions in the Persian Gulf

Post by Stercutus » Wed Sep 25, 2019 4:54 pm

absinthe beginner wrote:
Wed Sep 25, 2019 9:13 am
Iran ready to accept nuclear deal changes if U.S. returns, lifts sanctions: spokesman

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa- ... SKBN1WA11A
I am thinking that some people are thinking it is too late for all that.
These days of dust
Which we've known
Will blow away with this new Son

But I'll kneel down wait for now
And I'll kneel down
Know my ground

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