Civil Unrest In Middle Eastern Arab States

[Cascadian]

You want to know the worst part???

This is totally going to delay the release of Ishtar on Blu-Ray that much longer.

Ha, Agent Smith, in the midst of all this sobering and painful drama for Egypt's citizens, that was a refreshing bit of humor.

My two weeks in Egypt on vacation over 20 years ago was one of the highlights of my life, and I can't say enough about how friendly, personable, and helpful the people I encountered were. (I was told most Egyptians revered JFK and what he had done for their country and therefore liked and admired American tourists, a pleasant change from the scowling and unfriendly residents I interacted with in Morocco later that month.) I was downtown in an area that got me turned around as far as knowing what direction the hotel was in, and a group of Egyptian guys not only interpreted my distress, hand signals, and "Cairo Hilton?" correctly, they also smilingly flagged down a passing cab, insisted on paying for my fare, and pressed two tangerines into my hands in case I got hungry on the ride there.

I got to tour Tut's treasures and the Cairo Museum, walk to the center of the Great Pyramid, travel upriver to Luxor, and walk amidst thousands of years of history everywhere I went. Yes, I saw massive slums and great poverty and heard the cry of "Baksheesh!" as a source of income for families on the edge, and I am only amazed a revolution in the streets has not occurred before now. I can just imagine the population pressures of today when there were "only" 18 million in the city when I visited, and crossing the street was a daredevil, life-threatening experience due to the insane traffic and air pollution.

The savagely unfair income disparities and lack of equitable resource allocation to those in need appears to have blossomed into a long-overdue correction.

[TC]

This is quite interesting:

Egypt protests: America's secret backing for rebel leaders behind uprising

The American government secretly backed leading figures behind the Egyptian uprising who have been planning “regime change” for the past three years, The Daily Telegraph has learned.

The American Embassy in Cairo helped a young dissident attend a US-sponsored summit for activists in New York, while working to keep his identity secret from Egyptian state police.

On his return to Cairo in December 2008, the activist told US diplomats that an alliance of opposition groups had drawn up a plan to overthrow President Hosni Mubarak and install a democratic government in 2011.

He has already been arrested by Egyptian security in connection with the demonstrations and his identity is being protected by The Daily Telegraph... (cont.)

[razi]

so one egyptian student came to the US to study. that sounds like a stretch.

also, I found this, which is an interesting look at some of the OPINT of the revolution:

Activists' pamphlet

I'm sure by the time it hit the mainstream the Egyptian govt already had a copy of it.

[pyratemime]

That pamphlet is a fascinating read in the organization of a protest movement. I particularly found the instructions on what to wear to be truly enlightening. I am very happy to see the focus on use of positive symbols and slogans.

[NC5thcav]

This has all the makings of an unprecedented shitstorm of epic proportions. I hate to think of the consequences if the unstability spreads. Imagine if the price of oil soars and the markets crash. I sincerely hope that this all works out for the better.

[agent-smith]

This has all the makings of an unprecedented shitstorm of epic proportions. I hate to think of the consequences if the unstability spreads. Imagine if the price of oil soars and the markets crash...

[NC5thcav]

I like the arsenal, but I highly doubt it would really come to that. Besides, he obviously is doing it wrong, that should be food instead of all guns I think the biggest issue would be oil prices and their effect on the shaky economy here. That could seriously derail what recovery our economy has had lately.

[CaptBrainFreeze]

If they start raising gas prices over this (and they should NOT) I might find myself yelling at the gas station owners like I did after 9/11.

[agent-smith]

I like the arsenal, but I highly doubt it would really come to that...

Speak for yourself; my home has resembled that image for the past 10-15 years...

[NC5thcav]

I like the arsenal, but I highly doubt it would really come to that...

Speak for yourself; my home has resembled that image for the past 10-15 years...

I'm too poor to have that much, yet. But I'm working on it

OT: Oil prices rose $3.70 today. I agree that this shouldn't cause gas hikes yet, but any excuse will work to do so.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110128/ap_ ... _prices_16

[Laconic 24]

OT: Oil prices rose $3.70 today. I agree that this shouldn't cause gas hikes yet, but any excuse will work to do so.

Yep, this is going to send gas prices up quick. ANY instability in the Middle East is going to do so, and given that this instability seems to be part of a trend right now, people are going to be getting nervous. And be seeing excuses to charge the evil western nations more for gas.

This has all the makings of an unprecedented shitstorm of epic proportions. I hate to think of the consequences if the unstability spreads.

It could be a good thing if this instability spreads. A majority of people in ME nations wanting a peaceful democracy, and kicking old, corrupt, and heavy handed dictators out of office? To me, that = win. I'm just afraid that fundamentalist Islamic states will pop up in their place.

[CitizenZ]

It would have been cheaper if we had supported republican democratic principles of Liberty and Justice. Egypt, SA, thailand and others are disgusting dictatorships that have existed only because we support them.

Unlike the thriving democracy that we have in Iraq and Afghanistan? Better not to answer that, it is awfully political.

I wish them a successfull and peace full revolution and hope they establish a real republican democracy. Although almost any popular gov't in the region will become an islamic state.

Did you notice how your sentence became problematic?

Better to focus on what the effects will be on your side of the water tomorrow. Oil jumped a bit. Strange since Egypt is practically a net importer of oil. But hey, whatever scares people.

If anything NG should have jumped a bit. The big concern is someone doing something crazy with the dams or gas pumping concerns. That would really throw things for a loop.

It would be like the elephant in the room to not mention that this, or any popular uprising in the region would include a large dose of anti-American sentiment coupled with an opportunity for the radical islamists to grow and fill any void in power. Once again we have been standing shoulder to shoulder with the dictator they are rebelling against. This really is becoming so repetitive it is just a standard formula. Either by accident or design. Bad for us, good for our enemies.

[agent-smith]

...This really is becoming so repetitive it is just a standard formula...

Yep, it sure is becoming repetitive..."People ignore the *no politics* rule, and threads get locked..."

Happens all of the time.

[TacAir]

Oil prices 'might' go up?

An observation:
The DoE was created to lower our dependence on foreign oil, but today we use 45% more than when Carter started the agency.

In 2009, about 51% of the petroleum consumed by the United States was imported from foreign countries. "Petroleum" includes crude oil and refined petroleum products like gasoline. Yes, the US IMPORTS gasoline.
About 77% of gross petroleum imports in 2009 were crude oil. About 63% of the crude oil processed in U.S. refineries was imported.

The top five source countries of U.S. petroleum imports are Canada, Mexico, Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, and Nigeria

Alaska’s crude oil production peaked in 1988 at about 738 million barrels, which was equal to about 25% of total U.S. oil production. In 2009, it was about 236 million barrels, or about 12% of total U.S. production. Had Clinton signed the bill to open ANWR, we (Alaska) would be suppling the oil the US now gets from Hugo.

Like many others, I can only hope this turmoil ends in a less than horrible way - history tells us that is unlikely.

This will be an E-ticket ride....

[Rev]

Can America supply all of it's own oil? Yes we can. Can we do it at a price Americans would accept? No we can't. I say we hold on to our domestic supplies until the cost would be the same as the foreign imports. Which sadly doesn't look that far off.

[TacAir]

Can America supply all of it's own oil? Yes we can. Can we do it at a price Americans would accept? No we can't. I say we hold on to our domestic supplies until the cost would be the same as the foreign imports. Which sadly doesn't look that far off.

Ya, but.

If we started today - and had no greenie lawsuits, obstruction from the EPA and CoE - it would be 5 years minimum before any new oil from Alaska to hit the market - likley 6.

Throw in the lawsuits and an unhelpful FedGov and - well, here we are.

I don't worry much about $300/bl oil because I live in Alaska - but you should worry.

[Rev]

Looking online it seems the price of gas is higher in Alaska than it is here. I think you'd feel the pinch before I did.

[Molon Labe]

...This really is becoming so repetitive it is just a standard formula...

Yep, it sure is becoming repetitive..."People ignore the *no politics* rule, and threads get locked..."

Happens all of the time.

Historical fact is different than political opinion Smith. C-Z's only opinion was that historical fact is getting repetitive, and that opinion in and of itself is not political but personal. Let's not jump the gun and cry foul where none is due. Were C-Z to bash any one party or affiliate with slanderous/derogatory remarks, then one could throw flag onto the field.

We really need to cut back on the hyper-sensitive BS that most of the board seems to have fallen into. And by most, I mean almost all of us (the only exceptions being some of the mods and arbiters). An example of a thread that delved slightly into politics, but held true to ZS standards of neutral facts "no-political-tomfoolery" was the Katrina thread (most of the posts anyway). It's late, and I'm tired. Use the search function.

[Laconic 24]

MSNBC is reporting 68 killed, more than 2,000 wounded, and the protests are carrying over into today. Some of the photos I've seen have been intense. Has anyone heard if anything is happening in other Middle Eastern nations? I know there was speculation this could be a domino effect, but so far I've only seen news coverage on Egypt.

[agent-smith]

Historical fact is different than political opinion Smith. C-Z's only opinion was that historical fact is getting repetitive, and that opinion in and of itself is not political but personal. Let's not jump the gun and cry foul where none is due. Were C-Z to bash any one party or affiliate with slanderous/derogatory remarks, then one could throw flag onto the field.

We really need to cut back on the hyper-sensitive BS that most of the board seems to have fallen into. And by most, I mean almost all of us (the only exceptions being some of the mods and arbiters). An example of a thread that delved slightly into politics, but held true to ZS standards of neutral facts "no-political-tomfoolery" was the Katrina thread (most of the posts anyway). It's late, and I'm tired. Use the search function.

I agree with your post, but I really didn't see any facts listed by C-Z, just a blanket statement without any substantiating evidence.

[3Fingas]

Looking online it seems the price of gas is higher in Alaska than it is here. I think you'd feel the pinch before I did.

Not much in the way of refining capacity (if any) in Alaska...ergo the higher prices...but I think most Alaskans wouldn't mind the oil-derived dividend checks each resident would receive from $300.00/barrel oil.

[pyratemime]

I'm too poor to have that much, yet. But I'm working on it

OT: Oil prices rose $3.70 today. I agree that this shouldn't cause gas hikes yet, but any excuse will work to do so.

Why shouldn't disruption in Egypt cause a rise in gas prices? Civil disorder in Egypt puts the Suez Canal and the Sumed pipeline at risk which between the two of them carry a significant portion of European oil, regardless of source. If those close even for a day the ripple effect will last weeks because of the need to divert tankers around the Cape of Good Hope and shift oil to other pipelines. This is an emergent risk and industries of all types react by demanding more oil trying to build a buffer. Since the demand has risen but the supply can't prices rise too.

[andygates]

Were up to a hundred dead or more, says the al-J stream, and the streets are thick with even more curfew-ignoring protestors. All the slogans are on the line "Mubarak: Go!" not "Cabinet reshuffle please!" and I haven't seen any religious stuff.

Pyretamine, you over-play the sensitivity of a Suez closure. It's not business sense to divert until you have a good idea that the delay will be as long as the re-routing. Lots of ships will just anchor up and wait for a while. It does matter, but it's not a hair-trigger thing.

[pyratemime]

When the cost of running a freighter or a tanker is $100/minute and you have an uncertain period for closure you may delay hours but you won't delay days. You also need to keep in mind that oil can't just sit idle in a pipeline. It has to move so if the pipeline (which carry's more oil than the tanker traffic) closes that is an instantaneous need to divert about 2.5M bbl/day of oil into a system with minimal slack.