Is this the day it will happen?
The USD Index TANKED at the Asia open, and continues to go down - now 1/2 way through the session. What happens when EUROPE opens?
I'll be up at 5 am to see, and listen to the BBC. If it continues to 6 or 7 am, I'll be at the ATMs getting the max out, and at the bank door at 9 am to get the rest (if they open).
No this is a routine market flux and the other market indicators are not moving wildly.
Here is a link to the TED spread:Expand the chart to the 3 year view
and then look at the TED spread on October 8, 2008. This was the peak of the liquidity crisis and then see where we are today. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=.TEDSP:IND
Then go look at the S&P 500 on the same day here Oct 8, 2008:http://www.google.com/finance?q=INDEXSP:.INX
Then go here and look at what GLD was doing at this time frame October 8, 2010.http://www.google.com/finance?q=gld
Then this shows the volatility index compared to the NYSE indexs. Note the VIX is up radically and the prices down as everyone is selling.http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=
When you see events like this you should be shitting a brick, not on a minor currency swing.
I am not saying things are wonderful and we need to hold hands while singing a chorus of Kum Ba Ya, only that this minor swing in currency is just that a minor swing. You will know the BIG ONE when you see it.
Good post, I would also add that paying attention to treasury auctions is very important... pay a lot of attention if demand for treasuries falls and rates spike up, and pay attention to who is buying treasuries(especially if the Federal Reserve steps in rather quickly and aggressively, in contrast to the types of planned quantitative easing that is in the works now ). In fact, if we are talking about a debt related dollar crisis, then I think treasury rates might be more important than all of the above(price of gold is important though).