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PostPosted: Wed Jun 16, 2010 10:53 pm 
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Link I picked up on Survivalblog. http://www.businessinsider.com/niall-ferguson-empire-2010-5

As stated on SB, the best starts around 00:28 minutes. I think his most salient point is that we're "out-PIGing the PIGs".

PIG= Portugal, Italy, Greece


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 17, 2010 12:03 am 
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Excellent post. Long-winded, as Economics guys tend to be. But he shows that this isn't the first time this has happened, and certainly it appears that we (the US) as well as the Europeans and probably Japan are very very near the trigger point. If not already past it.

It does make me wonder: what CAN be done to reverse or control the coming crash? Even if the economy takes off in the next few months, I just don't see an easy way out of our own debt crisis. As i understand it (and I am NOT very good at understanding this kind of thing) given an improving economy vs the rest of the world, the dollar would become stronger in the world market. Which on one hand will make the value of the debts go down, and theoretically (Keynsians rejoice) cause higher revinues of more valuable money to come into the treasury. Which would let us keep up with our debt. But a stronger dollar would actually wind up HURTING exports, putting the brakes on most any economic recovery. So we need to keep the dollar weak. But that means less people want to buy our debt, and/also we have a less effective economy, and cant pay back all the bonds we have floated out there. The only good thing I see is that EVERYONE is in the same shape, and the old saying "misery loves company" will probably be pretty accurate. My head hurts.

What am I missing here?

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PostPosted: Thu Jun 17, 2010 1:57 am 
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It does make me wonder: what CAN be done to reverse or control the coming crash?



Get to know your neighbors. Make sure you have plenty of food, water, and other essential supplies laid in. Invest in metals (I have most of my metals portfolio in brass and copper-jacketed lead).

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PostPosted: Mon Jun 21, 2010 1:08 pm 
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China is buying stuff in Greece, and there's a lot of talk about this being a covert land grab. That may just be the rants of the paranoid, but they've been doing a lot of deals in Africa and other 3rd world countries as well, trying to get some good deals (see the afghan copper mine).

http://www.smh.com.au/business/world-bu ... -ychp.html

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PostPosted: Sat Sep 11, 2010 9:27 pm 
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DannusMaximus wrote:
WhoShotJR wrote:
We have seen many "impossibles" in the last couple of years. Be prepared for the next -- a hyperinflationary depression. It is not impossible, it is not an oxymoron, and it should surprise no thinking economist. It is nearly upon us.

Your lifestyle will depend on how prepared you are to meet this newest, biggest, and most horrific Black Swan. This beast will destroy economies, overthrow some governments, and alter the nature of the world.

Thoughts? Well, prepping for this scenario is sort of like prepping for a meteor strike or a monstrous EMP that fries everything electrical in the world. And by that I mean, you can't prep for it.

SO, since it is impossible to be prepared for the complete collapse of the global economy and our planet being thrown into a fuedal state, it's not something I'm preparing for. Man, life is easier now that I'm not stressing about that! 8)


I searched for this topic before posting :D ... and read the whole thread before posting!

I agree with everyone that posted that this bad stuff is going to happen. Some great info in those posts....

WHY DO YOU THINK YOU CANNOT PREPARE FOR THIS !!!!?????

There is now a new prediction from someone that predicted what we are in now. He predicted in 2006 that in 2007 it would start......

http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=20853

August 31, 2010
Global Collapse of the Fiat Money System: Too Big To Fail Global Banks Will Collapse Between Now and First Quarter 2011
When Quantitative Easing Has Run Its Course and Fails

Readers of my articles will recall that I have warned as far back as December 2006, that the global banks will collapse when the Financial Tsunami hits the global economy in 2007. And as they say, the rest is history.

Quantitative Easing (QE I) spearheaded by the Chairman of Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke delayed the inevitable demise of the fiat shadow money banking system slightly over 18 months.

That is why in November of 2009, I was so confident to warn my readers that by the end of the first quarter of 2010 at the earliest or by the second quarter of 2010 at the latest, the global economy will go into a tailspin. The recent alarm that the US economy has slowed down and in the words of Bernanke “the recent pace of growth is less vigorous than we expected” has all but vindicated my analysis. He warned that the outlook is uncertain and the economy “remains vulnerable to unexpected developments”.

Obviously, Bernanke’s words do not reveal the full extent of the fear that has gripped central bankers and the financial elites that assembled at the annual gathering at Jackson Hole, Wyoming. But, you can take it from me that they are very afraid.

Why?"

---go read the rest -----

When it happens, there will be no fuel, utilities will go off after 1 - 2 weeks (electric, Natural gas, water, etc.), and food will run out within 1 week in most cities.

You better have firewood, seeds, food to last until your next crop comes in, hunting, fishing, and trapping supplies/equipment and enough brass and lead to protect it all for 1 - 2 months (the masses will starve by then).

Living will be much easier after that (security wise) - and rebuilding will be easier without the welfare state. "Don't work - you don't eat".

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PostPosted: Sat Sep 11, 2010 9:45 pm 
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OrlandoFlyBoy wrote:
When it happens, there will be no fuel, utilities will go off after 1 - 2 weeks (electric, Natural gas, water, etc.), and food will run out within 1 week in most cities.

You better have firewood, seeds, food to last until your next crop comes in, hunting, fishing, and trapping supplies/equipment and enough brass and lead to protect it all for 1 - 2 months (the masses will starve by then).

Living will be much easier after that (security wise) - and rebuilding will be easier without the welfare state. "Don't work - you don't eat".



I think that's just a little hyperbolic. A financial crash of even greater significance that the great depression wouldn't have this result. Major banks tanking and TEOTWAWKI are two different things.


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PostPosted: Sat Sep 11, 2010 11:37 pm 
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In the pantheon of economists, I've got to say that I really enjoy reading and listening to Niall Ferguson. He's really got a firm understanding of what's going on, and he also provides a nice counter to Paul Krugman whom I'm really sick of hearing and reading about, Nobel prize or not.

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PostPosted: Sun Sep 12, 2010 12:05 am 
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jnathan wrote:
He's really got a firm understanding of what's going on, and he also provides a nice counter to Paul Krugman whom I'm really sick of hearing and reading about, Nobel prize or not.
-Jeff



Being as apolitical as I can, in recent years I've come to think of the Nobel prize as the equivalent of the Darwin award. Even more accurately, voting on the high school Prom King.


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PostPosted: Sun Sep 12, 2010 8:16 pm 
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OrlandoFlyBoy wrote:

http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=20853

August 31, 2010
Global Collapse of the Fiat Money System: Too Big To Fail Global Banks Will Collapse Between Now and First Quarter 2011
When Quantitative Easing Has Run Its Course and Fails

Readers of my articles will recall that I have warned as far back as December 2006, that the global banks will collapse when the Financial Tsunami hits the global economy in 2007. And as they say, the rest is history.

Quantitative Easing (QE I) spearheaded by the Chairman of Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke delayed the inevitable demise of the fiat shadow money banking system slightly over 18 months.



I am not going to say what this person describes cannot happen but I think there is a lot of tin foil hat ideas on the globalresearch.ca web site.

and BTW despite what this web site author said was:

Quote:
4) Worst-case scenario – the confiscation of gold AS HAPPENED IN WORLD WAR II.


The executive order he is referring to was issued in 1933 a few years before WW-2 began, unless of course he was talking about the NAZI confiscation of occupied countries. This error does not exactly inspire confidence on my part in the author.

There is without a doubt a lot of financial issues that will not disappear overnight and we still have some tough times ahead, however the collapse of the fiat monetary system is by no means an absolute certainty and IMO is actually unlikely within the time frame mentioned by the web site.

Here is a link to Martin Weiss with a little more constructive advice.
http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/bernanke ... ting-40007

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PostPosted: Sun Sep 12, 2010 11:38 pm 
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Is this the day it will happen?

The USD Index TANKED at the Asia open, and continues to go down - now 1/2 way through the session. What happens when EUROPE opens?

I'll be up at 5 am to see, and listen to the BBC. If it continues to 6 or 7 am, I'll be at the ATMs getting the max out, and at the bank door at 9 am to get the rest (if they open).

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PostPosted: Sun Sep 12, 2010 11:53 pm 
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OrlandoFlyBoy wrote:
Is this the day it will happen?

The USD Index TANKED at the Asia open, and continues to go down - now 1/2 way through the session. What happens when EUROPE opens?

I'll be up at 5 am to see, and listen to the BBC. If it continues to 6 or 7 am, I'll be at the ATMs getting the max out, and at the bank door at 9 am to get the rest (if they open).

Image


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PostPosted: Mon Sep 13, 2010 1:46 am 
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Quote:
Is this the day it will happen?


Less than 1% Really?

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PostPosted: Mon Sep 13, 2010 5:32 am 
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OrlandoFlyBoy wrote:
Is this the day it will happen?


No

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PostPosted: Mon Sep 13, 2010 7:33 am 
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OrlandoFlyBoy wrote:
Is this the day it will happen?

The USD Index TANKED at the Asia open, and continues to go down - now 1/2 way through the session. What happens when EUROPE opens?


I believe that is the treasury's plan. If the Chinese won't let the reminbi float up then the treasury will push the USD down. The idea is to make US exports more competitive. The risk is either deflation that gets out of control or the whiplash of inflation or worse hyperinflation (due to the dollar being worthless not a supply/demand issue).


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PostPosted: Mon Sep 13, 2010 7:35 am 
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I personally don't think it will be a OMG ITZ HAPPENING NAOO situation. More of a slow, continual slide into deeper and deeper recession, combined with increasing inflation as governments try to pump cash into the economy. Kind of like the last 2 years... hmmm.

I just dont see any of the really big governments just throwing up their hands and saying "we quit". They are fully aware that it just can't happen. So you will see more and more fragile currencies all trying to hold each other up. Even China, one of the strongest economies right now, depends on exports for its growth. So it has no interest in us failing, either.

This is just gonna be a long, painful correction. Just remember the old adage, "when there is blood in the streets, buy stocks!"

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PostPosted: Mon Sep 13, 2010 10:19 am 
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OrlandoFlyBoy wrote:
Is this the day it will happen?

The USD Index TANKED at the Asia open, and continues to go down - now 1/2 way through the session. What happens when EUROPE opens?

I'll be up at 5 am to see, and listen to the BBC. If it continues to 6 or 7 am, I'll be at the ATMs getting the max out, and at the bank door at 9 am to get the rest (if they open).

Image



No this is a routine market flux and the other market indicators are not moving wildly.

Here is a link to the TED spread:

Expand the chart to the 3 year view and then look at the TED spread on October 8, 2008. This was the peak of the liquidity crisis and then see where we are today.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=.TEDSP:IND


Then go look at the S&P 500 on the same day here Oct 8, 2008:
http://www.google.com/finance?q=INDEXSP:.INX

Then go here and look at what GLD was doing at this time frame October 8, 2010.
http://www.google.com/finance?q=gld

Then this shows the volatility index compared to the NYSE indexs. Note the VIX is up radically and the prices down as everyone is selling.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=^VIX&t=5y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=^GSPC,^IXIC,^DJI


When you see events like this you should be shitting a brick, not on a minor currency swing.

I am not saying things are wonderful and we need to hold hands while singing a chorus of Kum Ba Ya, only that this minor swing in currency is just that a minor swing. You will know the BIG ONE when you see it.

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PostPosted: Mon Sep 13, 2010 12:14 pm 
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http://www.businessinsider.com/how-hyperinflation-will-happen-in-america-2010-9

Interesting if long winded treatise on Hyperinflation, What may really happen as the 'coup de grace' to our totally screwed economy.

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PostPosted: Mon Sep 13, 2010 12:18 pm 
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[merging into existing hyper inflation thread]

I saw another article on this earlier today. Let me find it.

Edit to add links:
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id ... _article=1

http://www.cnbc.com/id/39097299

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PostPosted: Mon Sep 13, 2010 12:44 pm 
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That second link is interesting phil. I'll add what I know to it.

HNWI and UHNWI (high net worth and ultra high net work) individuals are certainly looking to the emerging markets as places to invest.

Lots of the big and medium level banks are expanding their operations into the emerging markets, increasing their onshore and offshore desks as more HNWI appear in these growing economies.

A lot of bankers are annoyed at the increased regulations, many are changing to banks with less restrictions or looking to work in markets with less restrictions. Consequentially taking their clients money with them.

Smaller and boutique banks are going to struggle and this may see the formation of more 'too big to fail' banks...maybe.

The other night out I was talking to a friend who knows quite a bit about the situation he basically said; there is too much money in the economy.

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PostPosted: Mon Sep 13, 2010 3:12 pm 
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the_alias wrote:
A lot of bankers are annoyed at the increased regulations, many are changing to banks with less restrictions or looking to work in markets with less restrictions. Consequentially taking their clients money with them.

...

The other night out I was talking to a friend who knows quite a bit about the situation he basically said; there is too much money in the economy.


Wouldn't taking money out of the U.S. economy reduce inflation?

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PostPosted: Mon Sep 13, 2010 3:34 pm 
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Valarius wrote:
the_alias wrote:
A lot of bankers are annoyed at the increased regulations, many are changing to banks with less restrictions or looking to work in markets with less restrictions. Consequentially taking their clients money with them.

...

The other night out I was talking to a friend who knows quite a bit about the situation he basically said; there is too much money in the economy.


Wouldn't taking money out of the U.S. economy reduce inflation?


And create a liquidity crisis.

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PostPosted: Mon Sep 13, 2010 3:36 pm 
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Valarius wrote:
the_alias wrote:
A lot of bankers are annoyed at the increased regulations, many are changing to banks with less restrictions or looking to work in markets with less restrictions. Consequentially taking their clients money with them.

...

The other night out I was talking to a friend who knows quite a bit about the situation he basically said; there is too much money in the economy.


Wouldn't taking money out of the U.S. economy reduce inflation?

This change hasn't happened yet although there is a lot of hiring going on, possibly it could have an impact though a lot of it depends upon how many clients accept the move or are able to make the move, honestly I'm not entirely sure. Also one must consider the fact people may have undeclared assets in other markets that are much easier to move than move money out of the US.

HNWI worldwide are under increased pressure to bank their money onshore in home countries and declare assets as austerity bites and governments look for increased tax revenue. It remains to be seen how many do...

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PostPosted: Mon Sep 13, 2010 10:31 pm 
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pyratemime wrote:
Valarius wrote:
the_alias wrote:
A lot of bankers are annoyed at the increased regulations, many are changing to banks with less restrictions or looking to work in markets with less restrictions. Consequentially taking their clients money with them.

...

The other night out I was talking to a friend who knows quite a bit about the situation he basically said; there is too much money in the economy.


Wouldn't taking money out of the U.S. economy reduce inflation?


And create a liquidity crisis.


We are IMO in a deflationary cycle and removing too much liquidity too quickly would be a disaster.

That said hyper inflation and inflation are really 2 different animals though they appear to be similar.

Inflation is caused by too many dollars chasing too few goods. In this case reducing the money supply will in theory reduce inflation.

Hyperinflation is the result of people not wanting to hold onto the currency in question because they mistrust the currency. Since no one wants to hold the currency there is no impact on the currency if the government tries to decrease the money supply. A currency collapse is almost inevitable in the case of true hyper inflation for that reason.

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PostPosted: Mon Sep 13, 2010 10:51 pm 
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raptor wrote:
That said hyper inflation and inflation are really 2 different animals though they appear to be similar.

Inflation is caused by too many dollars chasing too few goods. In this case reducing the money supply will in theory reduce inflation.

Hyperinflation is the result of people not wanting to hold onto the currency in question because they mistrust the currency. Since no one wants to hold the currency there is no impact on the currency if the government tries to decrease the money supply. A currency collapse is almost inevitable in the case of true hyper inflation for that reason.



That is the best summary I've ever read, thank you.


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