Iran Nukes

[CipherNameRaVeN]

"Russian, French Warships Off Syria, Iran, US Drones Over Iranian Coast"

US, Russian French and British air and naval forces streamed to the Syrian and Iranian coasts over the weekend on guard for fresh developments at the two Middle East flashpoints.
The Russian carrier Admiral Kuznetsov anchored earlier than planned at Syria's Tartus port on the Mediterranean Sunday, Jan. 8, arriving together with the destroyer Admiral Chabanenko and frigate Yaroslav Mudry.
To counter this movement, France consigned an air defense destroyer Forbin to the waters off Tartus.

debkafile's military sources report a buildup in the last 48 hours of western naval forces opposite Iran in the Persian Gulf and Arabian Sea in readiness for Tehran to carry out its threat to close the Strait of Hormuz.

Britain has dispatched the HMS Daring, a Type 45 destroyer armed with new technology for shooting down missiles, to the Sea of Oman, due to arrive atsyrian drones the same time as the French Charles de Gaulle aircraft carrier.

Our sources report too that Saturday, the giant RQ-4 Global Hawk UAV, took off from the USS Stenning aircraft carrier for surveillance over the coasts of Iran. The Stennis and its strike group are cruising in the Sea of Oman at the entrance to the Strait of Hormuz after Tehran announced it would not be allowed to cross through.
This was the first time the US has deployed unmanned aerial vehicles over Iran since its RQ-170 stealth drone was shot down by Iran on Dec. 4. It was also the first time the huge drone was ordered to take off from an aircraft carrier for a Broad Aerial Maritime Surveillance Mission (BAMS).

US military sources reported Monday, Jan. 9 that the Global Hawk's mission is "to monitor sea traffic off the Iranian coast and the Straits of Hormuz." The US Navy was ordered to maintain a watch on this traffic, another first, after Iranian Navy chief Adm. Habibollah Sayyari said in a televised broadcast Sunday night that the Strait of Hormuz was under full Iranian control and had been for years.

Also Sunday, Army Gen. Martin Dempsey, Chairman of the US Chiefs of Staff, warned in no uncertain terms that Iran has the ability to block the Strait of Hormuz "for a period of time." He added in a CBS interview: "We've invested in capabilities to ensure that if that happens, we can defeat that." Gen. Dempsey went on to emphasize: "Yes, they can block it. We've described that as an intolerable act and it's not just intolerable for us, it's intolerable to the world. But we would take action and reopen the straits."
Appearing on the same program, US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta warned of a quick, decisive and very tough American response to any Iranian attempt to close the Strait of Hormuz.

They both spoke a few hours after a spokesman for the Revolutionary Guards said the supreme Iranian leadership had ruled the Strait must be closed in the event of an oil embargo imposed on Iran by the European Union.

debkafile's military sources report the constant escalation of military tension around Iran and Syria in recent days as not just stemming from the rapid advances Iran is making toward production of a nuclear weapon, but from fears in the West and Israel that Tehran and Damascus are in step over their military plans for the Persian Gulf and Mediterranean sectors.

After the Admiral Kuznetsov docked in Tartus Sunday with much fanfare, the Syrian Navy commander Dawoud Rajha was received on the deck by a guard of honor of marines under a flyover of Russian Su-33 and Su-25 fighter-bombers. This was taken as a signal of Moscow's willingness to back the Assad regime up against any Western military intervention as well as a gesture of support for cooperation between Syria and Iran in their operational plans.

Sunday, the Iranian media issued divergent statements about the situation at Iran's underground uranium enrichment plant at Fordo, near Qom: In English, the site as described as going on stream soon, while the Farsi media reported it was already operational.

The head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization Fereydoun Abbasi Davani declared furthermore," ...the Islamic Republic is capable of exporting services related to nuclear energy to other countries."

This statement showed that Tehran has no fear of raising the level of its threats to the West up to the point of offering to hand out its nuclear technology to other countries in a gesture of uncontrolled proliferation.

[pirro]

Many latin american and south american countries are welcoming iran to their tables. Dont forget that many countries in my region hate EEUU since the 70s and the condor plan and iran is using that to forge alliance in the region.

Saludos.

[J.C.]

The Kuznetsov visit was announced back in November - before all this Strait of Hormuz talk was underway. I think that anything Russia and China would see as an "unprovoked" attack on either Syria or Iran could be the start of a pretty bad day.

[Snipe]

A word to everyone not very familiar with nuclear arms - Uranium bombs are a bad Idea. While technically simple, they are relatively expensive to produce and half as efficient as a plutonium bomb, and not to mention less powerful.....

I wouldn't make a little boy but a layer cake or at least boost it

Sent from my PC36100 using Tapatalk

[TC]

Middle East may destabilise because of "intensifying" Iran nuclear crisis, warns William Hague

William Hague has warned that "intensifying" tensions with Iran could escalate into a crisis that destabilises the entire Middle East unless the country abandons its nuclear enrichment programme.

In an interview with The Sunday Telegraph, the Foreign Secretary expressed concerns that Iran's actions could spark a nuclear arms race, and called on the Iranian government to negotiate a peaceful resolution of the growing confrontation.

"We do have to confront this problem, because Iran has embarked on a course which threatens the whole region of the Middle East with nuclear proliferation," Mr Hague said.

"It is an intensifying problem that we have over their nuclear programme. And so there is a risk that this will become a greater crisis as 2012 goes on."

Mr Hague's comments came as the European Union prepares to agree an embargo on Iranian oil in eight days' time, in response to Iran's decision to step up its efforts to produce the materials for a nuclear weapon.

They followed last week's assassination of a fourth Iranian nuclear scientist in two years, blamed by Iran on Mossad, the Israeli security service; recent missile tests by Iran; and continuing threats by its clerical regime to close the narrow marine artery through which more than a third of the West's seaborne oil reserves pass...(continued at link)

Iran sends rare letter to U.S. over killed scientist

(Reuters) - Iran said on Saturday it had evidence Washington was behind the latest killing of one of its nuclear scientists, state television reported, at a time when tensions over the country's nuclear program have escalated to their highest level ever.

In the fifth attack of its kind in two years, a magnetic bomb was attached to the door of 32-year-old Mostafa Ahmadi-Roshan's car during the Wednesday morning rush-hour in the capital. His driver was also killed.

U.S. Secretary of State Hilary Clinton denied responsibility and Israeli President Shimon Peres said Israel had no role in the attack, to the best of his knowledge.

"We have reliable documents and evidence that this terrorist act was planned, guided and supported by the CIA," the Iranian foreign ministry said in a letter handed to the Swiss ambassador in Tehran, state TV reported. The Swiss embassy represents U.S. interests in a country where Washington has no diplomatic ties.

The spokesman for Iran's Joint Armed Forces Staff, Massoud Jazayeri, said: "Our enemies, especially America , Britain and the Zionist regime (Israel), have to be held responsible for their actions."...(continued at link)

[angelofwar]

Watch out Slippy-Slappy-Mini-jihad who-ever...

An elite class of warriors are joining the fight on the U.S. side:

http://www.foxnews.com/us/2012/01/15/us-navy-finds-dolphins-key-ally-in-strait-hormuz-showdown-with-iran/

Probably better trained and more disciplined than the Iranians as well

[rhi]

If someone wanted to *really* be a dick, they'd send the USS Vincennes back out there.

Sadly, the opportunity to be that much of a dick has passed; the Vincennes was decommissioned in ought five and sold for scrap a year and a half ago.

We've come a long way since CG-49.

[TC]

Europe set to announce ban on Iranian oil, William Hague says

Europe will agree sanctions banning the purchase of oil from Iran by the end of the month, William Hague, the foreign secretary, said on Sunday as Saudi Arabia promised it could boost output to make up the shortfall.

Mr Hague was speaking as part of what appeared to be a concerted ramping up of pressure on Iran from the EU. His German and French counterparts sent the same message in separate interviews, insisting that the Iranian regime was continuing its work on nuclear weapons and additionally threatening to block dealings with its Central Bank.

He repeated long-standing government policy that military action was being neither ruled in or out, but said: "This is an increasingly dangerous situation that Iran is developing a military nuclear programme.

"Our sanctions are part of getting Iran to change course and to enter negotiations."

Israel, the United States, the EU and Iran's Arab neighbours in the Gulf, mostly hostile, are engaged in a complex game of threat and counter-threat with Iran in the hope of persuading it to back down from its nuclear programme without having to use force, which even its proponents admit could have disastrous consequences.

Saudi Arabia's oil production currently stands at 10 million barrels per day, against a potential capacity estimated at 12.5 million, though whether it could in practice achieve that has been questioned.

Iran is the second-largest producer in OPEC, the oil cartel, producing 3.5 million barrels per day.

While proposing sanctions, the West also fears that they could trigger a rise in the oil price, damaging already fragile economies further.

The Saudi oil minister, Ali al-Naimi, said in a newspaper interview at the weekend that the country was "prepared to meet the increase in global demand as a result of any circumstances". This brought an angry response from Iran, whose OPEC representative, Mohammad Ali Khatibi, warning that a compensatory increase would "not be considered friendly"...(continued at link)

[TC]

Iran warns of consequences if Arabs back oil sanctions

(Reuters) - Iran warned Gulf Arab neighbours they would suffer consequences if they raised oil output to replace Iranian crude facing an international ban.

In signs of Tehran's deepening isolation over its refusal to halt nuclear activity that could yield atomic bombs, China's premier was in Saudi Arabia Sunday probing for greater access to its huge oil and gas reserves and Britain voiced confidence a once hesitant EU would soon ban oil imports from Iran.

Major importers of Iranian oil were long loath to embargo the lifeblood of Iran's economy because of fears this would send oil prices rocketing at a time - amidst debt and deficit crises and high unemployment - when they could least afford it...(continued at link)

ETA:

Joint U.S.-Israel military exercise postponed

(Reuters) - The United States and Israel have postponed an upcoming joint military exercise until later in the year, but sources in both countries denied on Sunday that the move was taken to avoid further escalating tensions with Iran.

The air-defense drill, named "Austere Challenge 12," is expected to be the largest exercise between the two allies, who regularly hold joint military manoeuvres.

The Pentagon said it was scheduled for the spring, but now would take place in the second half of 2012.

Israeli media reports originally said it was cancelled due to budgetary constraints. But some pundits speculated that the real reason was fear of creating further friction with Iran, which is showing signs of deepening isolation over its refusal to halt nuclear activity.

A U.S. official denied that tensions with Iran were a factor and an Israeli security source cited logistical problems. Both sources spoke on condition of anonymity...(continued at link)

[PackLemming]

According to an Israeli defense official, Washington wants to avoid causing further tensions in the region, especially in light of the sensitive situation that has been generated after various reports in the international media that the U.S. and Israel are preparing to strike Iran's nuclear facilities.

The drill, codenamed Austere Challenge 12, was supposed to simulate the missiles fired by Iran or other antagonistic states toward Israel. Defense officials told Channel 2 on Sunday that the drill is now scheduled to take place in the summer.

Both Israeli and U.S. officials said the exercise would be the largest-ever joint drill by the two countries, involving thousands of U.S. soldiers.

News of it came amid heightened tensions between U.S. allies and Iran, after Tehran threatened it could close the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial oil supply route.

But the IDF said the drill was planned long ago and is not tied to recent events. The drill "is not in response to any real-world event," the IDF wrote in a statement last week.

The Defense Ministry said in an official statement that the postponement of the drill has not yet been announced, and that the subject is currently being discussed between Israeli and U.S. officials.

They did note, however, that the drill was not canceled due to budget considerations.

In late 2009, Israel and the United States also held a huge joint missile defense exercise, involving about 1,000 U.S. troops, alongside an equal number of Israeli military personnel.

http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-d ... n-1.407466

[phil_in_cs]

from John Robb, who ought to be in your daily RSS feed:
http://globalguerrillas.typepad.com/glo ... -iran.html

The Heartbeat of War with Iran

A war with Iran has three drivers:

• It is building a nuclear weapon. The Israeli security lobby is going nuts.
• Iran is sitting on top of the world's 2nd largest reserves of natural gas (behind Russia). Given how important natural gas is to future global energy needs and the need to hedge Russia's control over the global market, this can't be allowed.
• The US defense industry needs a new way to drive spending now that bin Laden is dead. Iran is now at the top of the list (China/Cyberwarfare is next on the list).

With these drivers in place, all that is needed to is to remove barriers to a conflict.

First, and this is a prerequisite for any state vs. state conflict in the 21st Century, Iran needs to be disconnected from the global economic system. That is now happening. New sanctions (shades of Iraq) are truly disconnecting Iran, even from China.

The last impediment? An international mandate for a war with Iran (or at least, a major bombing campaign to destroy facilities and infrastructure). That effort is in process, but it's not going so well. China apparently doesn't like the idea (it's hard to get China to agree on stuff like this when they are being used by the US Defense Industry as its next boogeyman).

However, things are different on the Iranian side. In Iran, the crunch has begun.

The effects of these sanctions has ALREADY created hyperinflation in Iran (which will soon unwind the entire Iranian economy and create political chaos). Add to this a weekly drumbeat of special operations/drone assassinations and bombings/explosions aimed at Iranian senior personnel/facilities within the Iranian nuclear/missile program (which means they will be unlikely to build a bomb before economic disaster rolls them).

The only option for Iran?

Diplomacy? That isn't going to work. Most of the world is already planning on the economic spoils a new Iranian regime would unearth. They have no interest in saving the current regime.

Stop developing a nuclear bomb? That wouldn't work. The train on a regime change in Iran has left the station and it won't stop until it happens.

Military action? Nah. Iran's military is a waste of money, given its status as a speed bump to western military action. A move to block the straights of Hormuz would be a military disaster.

Systems disruption? Yes. A global effort to disrupt energy systems would put pressure on the west to relent. The only real question is how they will disrupt it (without using overt military power).

[phil_in_cs]

Russia warns against an attack on Iran
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/worl ... 539555.cms

Iran criticizes Saudi saying they can make up the slack if Iran is boycotted
http://blogs.voanews.com/breaking-news/ ... l-exports/

[duodecima]

Iran criticizes Saudi saying they can make up the slack if Iran is boycotted
http://blogs.voanews.com/breaking-news/ ... l-exports/

They're probably right about that.

[phil_in_cs]

As John Robb noted a few posts back, one of the neccesary conditions for major military action on Iran (as opposed to the assinations and drone strikes currently happening) was getting China on board.

From http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... -Iran.html

After a visit to the Gulf in which he met the leaders of the states most threatened by Iran's aggressive foreign policy, Wen Jiabao, the Chinese premier, issued Beijing's clearest condemnation yet .
"China adamantly opposes Iran developing and possessing nuclear weapons," he said.
China appears to have sent a message to Iran that it could not rely on Beijing's unstinting support by reducing its imports of oil at a time when the US and Europe are promoting an embargo on the country.
The Washington Post reported that China trimmed its oil imports from Iran in January from a daily average of around 550,000 barrels to 285,000 barrels a day.
Chinese foreign policy experts said the statement demonstrated that Beijing would not allow its international position to end up beholden to Iran.

[PackLemming]

As John Robb noted a few posts back, one of the neccesary conditions for major military action on Iran (as opposed to the assinations and drone strikes currently happening) was getting China on board.

From http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... -Iran.html

After a visit to the Gulf in which he met the leaders of the states most threatened by Iran's aggressive foreign policy, Wen Jiabao, the Chinese premier, issued Beijing's clearest condemnation yet .
"China adamantly opposes Iran developing and possessing nuclear weapons," he said.
China appears to have sent a message to Iran that it could not rely on Beijing's unstinting support by reducing its imports of oil at a time when the US and Europe are promoting an embargo on the country.
The Washington Post reported that China trimmed its oil imports from Iran in January from a daily average of around 550,000 barrels to 285,000 barrels a day.
Chinese foreign policy experts said the statement demonstrated that Beijing would not allow its international position to end up beholden to Iran.

Walmart Lobby. Dangerous times.

[max v]

from John Robb, who ought to be in your daily RSS feed:
http://globalguerrillas.typepad.com/glo ... -iran.html

Iran's military is a waste of money, given its status as a speed bump to western military action.

The kind of speed bump that potentially wrecks your suspension. Iran's conventional capabilities should not be underestimated.

[phil_in_cs]

The kind of speed bump that potentially wrecks your suspension. Iran's conventional capabilities should not be underestimated.

That's a valid point. "Everyone" was saying the US would have 50k dead before both Iraq wars, and that proved to be spectacularly wrong. All of our recent actions have resulted in massive deaths on our enemies, and relatively few on the US side. That can easily lead to hubris and poor planning, as not all armies have the same moral. Iraq collapsed more due to an unwillingness to fight for Hussein than specific actions on our part.

Still, the performance of the "state of the art" Russian anti aircraft systems in Syria was embarrassing. Whether than was due to poor training or superior technology by Israel is an important question.

[max v]

The kind of speed bump that potentially wrecks your suspension. Iran's conventional capabilities should not be underestimated.

That's a valid point. "Everyone" was saying the US would have 50k dead before both Iraq wars, and that proved to be spectacularly wrong. All of our recent actions have resulted in massive deaths on our enemies, and relatively few on the US side. That can easily lead to hubris and poor planning, as not all armies have the same moral. Iraq collapsed more due to an unwillingness to fight for Hussein than specific actions on our part.

Still, the performance of the "state of the art" Russian anti aircraft systems in Syria was embarrassing. Whether than was due to poor training or superior technology by Israel is an important question.

Indeed, it seems that Iranian troops would be less inclined to surrender to a drone.

Concerning Russian technology, the weakest link is usually the operator.

[TC]

Britain, US and France send warships through Strait of Hormuz

Britain, America and France delivered a pointed signal to Iran, sending six warships led by a 100,000 ton aircraft carrier through the highly sensitive waters of the Strait of Hormuz.

This deployment defied explicit Iranian threats to close the waterway. It coincided with an escalation in the West's confrontation with Iran over the country's nuclear ambitions.

European Union foreign ministers are today expected to announce an embargo on Iranian oil exports, amounting to the most significant package of sanctions yet agreed. They are also likely to impose a partial freeze on assets held by the Iranian Central Bank in the EU.

Tehran has threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation. Tankers carrying 17 million barrels of oil pass through this waterway every day, accounting for 35 per cent of the world's seaborne crude shipments. At its narrowest point, located between Iran and Oman, the Strait is only 21 miles wide.

Last month, Admiral Habibollah Sayyari, commander of the Iranian navy, claimed that closing the Strait would be "easy," adding: "As Iranians say, it will be easier than drinking a glass of water."

But USS Abraham Lincoln, a nuclear-powered carrier capable of embarking 90 aircraft, passed through this channel and entered the Gulf without incident yesterday. HMS Argyll, a Type 23 frigate from the Royal Navy, was one of the escort vessels making up the carrier battle-group. A guided missile cruiser and two destroyers from the US Navy completed the flotilla, along with one warship from the French navy.

All three countries retain a permanent military presence in the Gulf, but a joint passage through the Strait of Hormuz by all of their respective navies is highly unusual. The flotilla will have passed within a few miles of the Iranian coastline.

A western official denied this was a provocative move intended to increase the pressure on Iran. The goal was simply to "illustrate international resolve" to guarantee free movement of shipping through a vital artery of the world economy, he said...(continued at link)

[angelofwar]

Looks like the embargo is official...now if Japan goes through with it, Iran is going to have a hard time buying/funding things with there main money maker gone...:

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2012/01/23/eu-agrees-on-iran-oil-embargo-as-part-nuclear-sanctions/

[Horatio_Tyllis]

Embargos have been emplaced and Nato's rolled into the straight of Hormuz in force, effectively calling the bluff of Iran and possibly Russia.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-0 ... -says.html

[raptor]

Oil embargoes by buyers are interesting thing.

You see oil is a fungible commodity.There is no way to know if the oil in your pipeline or tanker is Iranian,Iraqi or Libyan except by examining the paperwork. If the paper looks in order then it's source is whatever the documents say it is.

So do you think that Iran could not find a buyer for all of the crude I wanted to sell if it offered the crude at a discount of say 20%. I am sure someone would be glad to buy it at a discount and export it by land through Russia, Iraq, Pakistan or hell put it on a tanker and ship it. There is simply too much money to made to make this embargo other than a nuisance for Iran.

Let me help you with the numbers. You take a million barrels or crude at say a market price of $100/bbl and buy it for $80/bbl. The value of smuggling it out at that price is $20 million ignoring any other profit. Anyone think there would not be a line of ships and trucks standing by to move "contraband" oil?

[Horatio_Tyllis]

Oil embargoes by buyers are interesting thing.

You see oil is a fungible commodity.There is no way to know if the oil in your pipeline or tanker is Iranian,Iraqi or Libyan except by examining the paperwork. If the paper looks in order then it's source is whatever the documents say it is.

So do you think that Iran could not find a buyer for all of the crude I wanted to sell if it offered the crude at a discount of say 20%. I am sure someone would be glad to buy it at a discount and export it by land through Russia, Iraq, Pakistan or hell put it on a tanker and ship it. There is simply too much money to made to make this embargo other than a nuisance for Iran.

Let me help you with the numbers. You take a million barrels or crude at say a market price of $100/bbl and buy it for $80/bbl. The value of smuggling it out at that price is $20 million ignoring any other profit. Anyone think there would not be a line of ships and trucks standing by to move "contraband" oil?

Oil, like guns and food, will always have a way to sell. I'm more concerned about the political ramifications after the strong support showed by the russians and the threats by Iran should military forces move into the straight, that war would begin. I think we'd probably bomb Iran back into the stone age in a war, however, the potential to spark a large scale war, and therefore disaster, is there.

[Cpt. MelonBuster]

I think we'd probably bomb Iran back into the stone age in a war, however, the potential to spark a large scale war, and therefore disaster, is there.

While I agree, I don't think any of the major countries standing behind Iran are foolish enough to initiate conflict against the US and NATO.