Iran Nukes

[Apollo-11]

Today's news indicates that Iran now has enough refined material for one nuclear warhead. Still a ways away from being able to build it, but news says that "the hard part is over".

Discuss.

[phil_in_cs]

Discuss.

All summer, everyone and their brother was assuming Israel was going to blast the Iranian nuclear facilities after the election and before the inauguration. That means pretty much now. Iran has been testing missiles this month, and while they can't put nukes on them yet, you can count on those raining down on Israel as soon as the Israeli's start hitting the nuclear facilities. Unless the US gets involved in a big way, Israel can not fly enough sorties to get the facilities and the mobile missile launches quickly.

Nice how the IAEA was saying Iran wasn't trying to build a nuke, and suddenly they say they've finished the hard part.

[Big A]

The way the "free" world has been letting this go on, it would
not surprise me in the slightest if Iran actually uses one, as
soon as they get one.

Folks just don't seem to understand that the Iranians are
REALLY crazy; they don't care if they get vaporized, as long
as they hit Israel, or the "Great Satan," first.

As regards Iran having a nuclear device, it is not a matter of
IF they will use it, but WHEN.

[TheGunslinger]

Sorry, I am going to claim a massive amount of bollocks at that post.

They aren't going to use it as soon as they get the wrapping off. Sure, they don't like Israel much but they are canny enough to realise that if they use their one nuke (which is more likely to be 5 or 6, than just one) they will turn into a glass parking lot themselves.

They DO care about being vaporised. They entire nation isn't made up of suicide bombers - and Ahmajihad, whilst bellicose, is still beholden to a council before he can go off and invade or launch nukes.

Israel is a nuclear power themselves - with second strike capability, it's widely believed as well. Iran isn't able to get rid of all of their nukes in one fell swoop, much less the USA's.

I'd view it more as a deterrent for US/Israeli invasion of Iranian soil, more than anything else.

[Tetra Grammaton Cleric]

I'd have to agree.

If I were the Iranian powers that be I'd be wanting some deterrent what with all the talk last year about an expedition to join up the dots in the arc of crisis.

Of course, if I was the Iranian powers that be I wouldn't be playing the agent-provocateur stuff/one-upmanship games either.

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[Erik]

I'd have to agree.

If I were the Iranian powers that be I'd be wanting some deterrent what with all the talk last year about an expedition to join up the dots in the arc of crisis.

Of course, if I was the Iranian powers that be I wouldn't be playing the agent-provocateur stuff/one-upmanship games either.

-

Iran has been very vocal about its desire to put an end to America.

A quote from an Iranian newspaper showing how much Iran loves us:

"You can quote me: God will destroy America by the hands of Muslims. ... God will not give Japan or Europe the honor of bringing down the United States; this is an honor God will bestow upon Muslims.

Incidentally, the "Great Satan" term is describing America.

Iran doesn't have to send a nuke out in an overt way. In fact, I can't think of a single attack on America by terrorists that wasn't covert. Why not just stick one container with a nuke onto one of these container ships:



and detonate it half a mile from a major New York harbor? New York would immediately go away and there'd be no proof it was Iran. So easy, a caveman could do it.

[Tetra Grammaton Cleric]

Of course, if I was the Iranian powers that be I wouldn't be playing the agent-provocateur stuff/one-upmanship games either

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[phil_in_cs]

New York would immediately go away and there'd be no proof it was Iran. So easy, a caveman could do it.

Israel supposed has the 'Samson Doctrine'. The biblical Samson pulled the temple down around him as he died; killing thousands of Philistines. The Samson doctine is (supposedly) that if Israel is hit by a nuke from any source, there's a long list of places that they will nuke right away, without even trying to find out who hit them. The list includes Cairo, Damascus, Riyadh, Mecca, Medina, Tehran, etc. They have a number of submarines, and submarine launched cruise missiles.

They've never publicly admitted to any of this, but this idea has been around for many years.

[MilknCheese]

"You can quote me: God will destroy America by the hands of Muslims. ... God will not give Japan or Europe the honor of bringing down the United States; this is an honor God will bestow upon Muslims.

Dammit! I didn't even realise us Europeans had been trying to bring down the United States! Am I too late? Does this mean I've missed my chance? Quick, someone pass me my tin helmet and pool cue! Look out Yankees, I'm comin' for ya'!

[Brash]

"You can quote me: God will destroy America by the hands of Muslims. ... God will not give Japan or Europe the honor of bringing down the United States; this is an honor God will bestow upon Muslims.

Dammit! I didn't even realise us Europeans had been trying to bring down the United States! Am I too late? Does this mean I've missed my chance? Quick, someone pass me my tin helmet and pool cue! Look out Yankees, I'm comin' for ya'!

Hang on mate, we're on their side again this time. They seem to be the least crazy.

[Erik]

New York would immediately go away and there'd be no proof it was Iran. So easy, a caveman could do it.

Israel supposed has the 'Samson Doctrine'. The biblical Samson pulled the temple down around him as he died; killing thousands of Philistines. The Samson doctine is (supposedly) that if Israel is hit by a nuke from any source, there's a long list of places that they will nuke right away, without even trying to find out who hit them. The list includes Cairo, Damascus, Riyadh, Mecca, Medina, Tehran, etc. They have a number of submarines, and submarine launched cruise missiles.

They've never publicly admitted to any of this, but this idea has been around for many years.

I'm not talking about Iran nuking Israel. I'm talking about Iran nuking the U.S.A.

[phil_in_cs]

I'm not talking about Iran nuking Israel. I'm talking about Iran nuking the U.S.A.

I guess I didn't finish my thought; we should have a similar plan. We ought to have a semi offical position that if an untraceable bomb goes off, this list of cities gets nuked within 20 minutes. That gives the nations on that list a big interest in making sure their internal crazies, and the crazies next door, under control.

[MilknCheese]

Hang on mate, we're on their side again this time. They seem to be the least crazy.

Phew, thanks for clarifying that. I was nearly taken in by the clever propoganda of the Iranian press! Damn their cunning ways!

Iran has been very vocal about its desire to put an end to America.

Probably a minor point but wouldn't it be fairer to say that certain elements in Iran hate America? They may be the most vocal, or at least those whose views are most widely distributed, but its a long way fron all Iranians wanting to put the U.S to the flaming sword.

I'm far from expert on the subject but I seem to recall that a large proportion of the Iranian population are more liberal than is represented in their media?

[phil_in_cs]

Probably a minor point but wouldn't it be fairer to say that certain elements in Iran hate America? They may be the most vocal, or at least those whose views are most widely distributed, but its a long way fron all Iranians wanting to put the U.S to the flaming sword.

I'm far from expert on the subject but I seem to recall that a large proportion of the Iranian population are more liberal than is represented in their media?

You're quite accurate that most people there don't want to put an end to the US, or the West in general. However, those people have very little say in what happens, and zero control over the nuclear and missile programs. We have to worry about what the people that make the decisions think, not the general population.

[thechin]

Ok so they make one nuclear warhead, (to America's thousands) so what? It's not like their going to go crazy and start declaring war on the world. Their leadership aren't made up of reglious zealots and are certainly not stupid. I'm pretty sure they are quite aware of the type of response America will show if they ever decide to use it against another nation.

[Raydarkhorse]

Sorry, I am going to claim a massive amount of bollocks at that post.

They aren't going to use it as soon as they get the wrapping off. Sure, they don't like Israel much but they are canny enough to realise that if they use their one nuke (which is more likely to be 5 or 6, than just one) they will turn into a glass parking lot themselves.

They DO care about being vaporised. They entire nation isn't made up of suicide bombers - and Ahmajihad, whilst bellicose, is still beholden to a council before he can go off and invade or launch nukes.

Israel is a nuclear power themselves - with second strike capability, it's widely believed as well. Iran isn't able to get rid of all of their nukes in one fell swoop, much less the USA's.

I'd view it more as a deterrent for US/Israeli invasion of Iranian soil, more than anything else.

I agree with you about the entire population of the country not being suicide bombers. The sad reality is that it does not take the entire population to launch a strike of any kind, it can be done on behalf of the sane people by a handful of not so sane people and in the case of a nuclear strike it only takes one person to launch one or a hundred missiles. Granted it takes a lot of people to put the capability into the hands of that one person, but they seem to be doing it just as fast as they can.

[phil_in_cs]

Their leadership aren't made up of reglious zealots and are certainly not stupid. I'm pretty sure they are quite aware of the type of response America will show if they ever decide to use it against another nation.

You might read up on Iran's govt. Here's a start: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran#Gover ... d_politics

See also the tactics they used against Iraq in that war. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Iraq_War

Perhaps the most commented-on and unconventional technique of the war was the use of human wave attacks by Iran, including the use of teenage Basij volunteers, some of whom[53] sacrificed their lives running over fields of landmines or charging heavy fire to clear the way for Iranian ground assault[54] or overrun Iraqi positions. Their devotion earned the reverence of pious Iranian revolutionaries and helped drive Iraq from Iran. To this day, the use of estesh-hadiyun (martyrdom-seekers) remains part of Iranian military doctrine.

[dogbane]

Their leadership aren't made up of reglious zealots

[Tim Allen Voice]Whaaa!?[/Tim Allen Voice]

Exhibit A, my friend:

[Tetra Grammaton Cleric]

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[thechin]

...........I stand corrected

[Jacob Creutzfeldt]

And the irony is that we are paying for their nuclear stuff when we fill our cars.

[TheGunslinger]

Look, their government - whilst staunchly religious - is not suicidal.

Yeah, yeah - they have their virgins or whatever when they die, but if they were so hell bent on being the worst neighbours in the world, they probably would have launched chemical or biological weapons into Israel already.

If Iran are such bad guys - why didn't they take part in the 1948 invasion of Israel, the 6 day war or the Yom Kippur war?

Iraq, Jordan, Egypt and others did, but not Iran.

Also, during the war with Iraq - Iraq invaded them, not the other way around. Sure, they used religious troops - that's hardly a surprise, though.

They aren't the most rational or reasonable of nations, but more is to be gained by talking to them - or at least trying to talk to them - than by ignoring them and rattling sabres.

Again, their nukes will be exploded over invading troops, not over Israeli cities. It's the same principle as having Silkworm missles in the hills - the idea isn't to sink US Carrier groups (though they could give it a red hot go) but more to snik oil tankers coming through the straights of Hormuz.

It's all about denial of assets and sapping their will to fight you - which they have achieved in spades.

[Jacob Creutzfeldt]

If Iran are such bad guys - why didn't they take part in the 1948 invasion of Israel, the 6 day war or the Yom Kippur war?

They were "good guys"* until the revolution in 1979 and the hostage situation in the US embassy.

* (I.e 'they were assholes, but they were our assholes')
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SAVAK
http://www.fas.org/irp/world/iran/savak/

[vyadmirer]

And the irony is that we are paying for their nuclear stuff when we fill our cars.

not true. Iran isnt even in the top 15 suppliers to America. We get most of our oil from canada and mexico.

http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petr ... mport.html