COVID-19 Chat Thread

This isn't going away anytime soon folks and it just made sense to consolidate all the COVID-19 stuff in one location.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by Elusive Despot » Sat Feb 08, 2020 9:52 am

American Citizen Diagnosed With Coronavirus Dies in China
A U.S. citizen diagnosed with the coronavirus has died in Wuhan, the Chinese city at the center of the outbreak, marking the first known American death from the disease.

The person was 60 years old and died Thursday at Wuhan’s Jinyintan Hospital, a spokesman for the U.S. Embassy in Beijing said Saturday. He provided no further details. “We offer our sincerest condolences to the family on their loss,” he said. “Out of the respect for the family’s privacy, we have no further comment.”
https://www.wsj.com/articles/an-americ ... 1581141185
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by absinthe beginner » Sat Feb 08, 2020 1:16 pm

Wuhan facing 'wartime conditions' as global coronavirus deaths reach 724

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... oronavirus

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by Elusive Despot » Sat Feb 08, 2020 6:41 pm

Case to be confirmed in Kentucky on Monday

Confirmed case in Kentucky that has not been publicly reported yet.

My wife is an ER nurse and she heard this from a doctor. It's not at the hospital my wife works at but one the doctor works at regularly.

I will not state the hospital but this should come out officially Monday.

We live in Kentucky so this hits close to home. Stay safe everyone.

Edit: I'm like, shaking now. I have been tracking the growth of this virus as a game and have enjoyed my little obsession. Did not expect this so soon.
https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/co ... _kentucky/
Last edited by Elusive Despot on Sat Feb 08, 2020 7:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by Elusive Despot » Sat Feb 08, 2020 6:45 pm

Coronavirus mortality rate is closer to 17%
Speaking at a press conference in Beijing, Wang Guoqiang, an infectious disease expert at Peking University No 1 Hospital, said that preliminary data about people who had recovered after being infected was promising.

Based on a small sample of discharged patients from Wuhan, the city at the centre of the outbreak, Wang said that about 6 per cent had recovered after being in a serious condition, while less than one per cent had recovered after being classed as in critical condition.

Only in China could a 6% survival rate for “serious” patients be considered good news. Similarly, a 1% survival rate for “critical” patients is also being spun as good news.

“This shows that cases in serious and critical conditions can be treated and discharged from hospital after receiving proactive treatment, and that has given us great confidence,” said Wang Guoqiang. I’m not sure what medical school Mr. Wang graduated from, but a 1% – 6% survival rate among those patients shouldn’t give any doctor “great confidence.”
This is only confirms the 15% Mortality rate reported earlier by The Lancet.

https://www.naturalnews.com/2020-02-08- ... rcent.html
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by Elusive Despot » Sat Feb 08, 2020 10:43 pm

Eighty-six people die of virus in a DAY in China as Beijing starts rounding up sufferers
-A clip believed to be taken in Changqing Garden, Wuhan, shows a man sprinting away from a group of officials

-Some officials appear to be carrying large metal sticks as they run after him along nearly-deserted streets

-On Saturday officials confirmed 722 coronavirus deaths in mainland China, bringing worldwide total to 724

-Also revealed five more Britons, including a child, have virus in France after one of them went to Singapore

-Another clip, said to be taken in Suzhou, shows suspected coronavirus sufferers dragged from their homes

-Officials in protective suits and face masks are seen walking two of the people out while holding their arms

-A third man then resists by kicking out and it takes three officials to pick him up and forcefully remove him
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... homes.html
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by flybynight » Sun Feb 09, 2020 7:41 am

Elusive Despot wrote:
Sat Feb 08, 2020 6:41 pm
Case to be confirmed in Kentucky on Monday

Confirmed case in Kentucky that has not been publicly reported yet.

My wife is an ER nurse and she heard this from a doctor. It's not at the hospital my wife works at but one the doctor works at regularly.

I will not state the hospital but this should come out officially Monday.

We live in Kentucky so this hits close to home. Stay safe everyone.

Edit: I'm like, shaking now. I have been tracking the growth of this virus as a game and have enjoyed my little obsession. Did not expect this so soon.
https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/co ... _kentucky/
Yea I'm kinda calling bullshit on that one.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by raptor » Sun Feb 09, 2020 10:34 am

Wait...it is on Reddit! So it must be true right?

Yes I agree ...BS.

The Coronavirus may be in TN, but that post reads like typical internet BS.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by absinthe beginner » Sun Feb 09, 2020 11:27 am

Global consumers reel from China’s coronavirus containment as stop-work orders disrupt supplies of iPhones, Hyundai cars and toilet paper

https://www.scmp.com/business/companies ... -stop-work

Exiled Chinese Billionaire Claims 1.5 Million Infected With Coronavirus, 50,000 Dead

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ ... passengers

China coronavirus outbreak: All the latest updates

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/02/ ... 21741.html

'Enemy of mankind': Coronavirus deaths top SARS as China returns to work

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-chin ... SKBN2020SN

Coronavirus death toll hits 811 as virus claims more lives than 2003 SARS outbreak - as Beijing starts rounding up sufferers and videos show hazmat suit-clad goons dragging people from their homes

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... break.html

‘We Live in Fear Every Day:’ Burnt-Out Health Workers Prepare for the Worst in Wuhan

https://www.theepochtimes.com/we-live-i ... 31777.html

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by FlashDaddy » Mon Feb 10, 2020 5:33 am

97 new deaths reported by China in one day
https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsands ... oronavirus
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by absinthe beginner » Mon Feb 10, 2020 7:50 am

Coronavirus incubation period could be 24 days

https://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/w ... -days.html

Holiday ends but workers stay home as China battles coronavirus

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/02/ ... 44059.html

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by JayceSlayn » Mon Feb 10, 2020 8:21 am

It has been a few days of below-peak daily infection rates (at least based on official numbers), which roughly correlates with 14 days (the claimed upper-bound of the incubation period) past the mass quarantines in China, and the subsequent public awareness/behavior changes everywhere. It looks like it may be rounding the inflection point of a classic sigmoid curve. If that is the case, then we've seen roughly half the ultimate number of cases, but that would still put 2019-nCoV at over 55K (official) infected, with an expected ultimate (official) death toll of almost 2K.

Even if true numbers are significantly higher than the official numbers (and they most certainly are, but not necessarily because of malice - even the best of healthcare systems would be completely overwhelmed trying to account for and treat every case), I would suspect that they are similarly starting to see an inflection point. Or at least I hope that the true numbers are at least tracking the same curve as the official numbers, and we are starting to see the decline in daily infection rates.

Like I said previously: while governments and hospitals can attempt to enforce control on an outbreak (and China is likely one of the countries most capable of pulling this off), ultimately public behavior changes are what will really put a damper on disease spread. While we'd prefer for it not to have to reach panic levels of concern in the public eye, that concern does effectively focus a large portion of the population to alter their routines enough to help prevent further spread.

Let's hope this decline continues, and is not simply a pause. If we could "beat" 2019-nCoV before the summer even, that would be fantastic. Otherwise the hope is to stall it long enough to get vaccines spun up by year's end, and I really hope that it wouldn't have to come to that, since that would imply much worse ahead.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by the_alias » Mon Feb 10, 2020 10:12 am

I think the CDC is likely to massively drop the ball on this.

The UK now has 8 cases - but they say
As of 10 February, a total of 1,114 people have been tested, of which 1,106 were confirmed negative and 8 positive.
(source https://www.gov.uk/guidance/wuhan-novel ... the-public)

Meanwhile our CDC website has the numbers only testing 337! :clownshoes:

We have 12 confirmed cases from that - 225 negative and 100 still pending.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by the_alias » Mon Feb 10, 2020 10:45 am

JayceSlayn wrote:
Mon Feb 10, 2020 8:21 am
It has been a few days of below-peak daily infection rates (at least based on official numbers), which roughly correlates with 14 days (the claimed upper-bound of the incubation period) past the mass quarantines in China, and the subsequent public awareness/behavior changes everywhere. It looks like it may be rounding the inflection point of a classic sigmoid curve. If that is the case, then we've seen roughly half the ultimate number of cases, but that would still put 2019-nCoV at over 55K (official) infected, with an expected ultimate (official) death toll of almost 2K.

Even if true numbers are significantly higher than the official numbers (and they most certainly are, but not necessarily because of malice - even the best of healthcare systems would be completely overwhelmed trying to account for and treat every case), I would suspect that they are similarly starting to see an inflection point. Or at least I hope that the true numbers are at least tracking the same curve as the official numbers, and we are starting to see the decline in daily infection rates.

Like I said previously: while governments and hospitals can attempt to enforce control on an outbreak (and China is likely one of the countries most capable of pulling this off), ultimately public behavior changes are what will really put a damper on disease spread. While we'd prefer for it not to have to reach panic levels of concern in the public eye, that concern does effectively focus a large portion of the population to alter their routines enough to help prevent further spread.

Let's hope this decline continues, and is not simply a pause. If we could "beat" 2019-nCoV before the summer even, that would be fantastic. Otherwise the hope is to stall it long enough to get vaccines spun up by year's end, and I really hope that it wouldn't have to come to that, since that would imply much worse ahead.
Maybe or maybe the Chinese are changing the ball on definitions again:
Chinese National Health Commission has changed their definition of #WuhanCoronavirus "confirmed case" in their latest guidelines dated 7/2. Patients tested positive for the virus but have no symptoms will no longer be regarded as confirmed. This inevitably will lower the numbers.
https://twitter.com/lwcalex/status/1226840055869632512
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by MPMalloy » Mon Feb 10, 2020 11:04 am

JayceSlayn wrote:
Mon Feb 10, 2020 8:21 am
Like I said previously: while governments and hospitals can attempt to enforce control on an outbreak (and China is likely one of the countries most capable of pulling this off), ultimately public behavior changes are what will really put a damper on disease spread. While we'd prefer for it not to have to reach panic levels of concern in the public eye, that concern does effectively focus a large portion of the population to alter their routines enough to help prevent further spread.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by FlashDaddy » Mon Feb 10, 2020 2:54 pm

I’ve never been on a cruise. This story makes it less likely that I ever will.
Updated at 2 p.m. ET

There are 65 new coronavirus cases aboard the Diamond Princess cruise ship that's been under a quarantine since last week, Japan's health ministry announced Monday. With the latest cases, a total of 135 people from the ship have been confirmed to have the respiratory virus.

Those newly diagnosed include 45 Japanese and 11 Americans, as well as smaller numbers of people from Australia, Canada, England, the Philippines and Ukraine, according to Princess Cruises...
More details here:
https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsands ... s-in-japan
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by raptor » Mon Feb 10, 2020 3:18 pm

FlashDaddy wrote:
Mon Feb 10, 2020 2:54 pm
I’ve never been on a cruise. This story makes it less likely that I ever will.
Updated at 2 p.m. ET

There are 65 new coronavirus cases aboard the Diamond Princess cruise ship that's been under a quarantine since last week, Japan's health ministry announced Monday. With the latest cases, a total of 135 people from the ship have been confirmed to have the respiratory virus.

Those newly diagnosed include 45 Japanese and 11 Americans, as well as smaller numbers of people from Australia, Canada, England, the Philippines and Ukraine, according to Princess Cruises...
More details here:
https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsands ... s-in-japan
I have been a couple of cruises; after a week on the damn thing combined with travelling with 2,000 of my new "friends" I could not wait to GTF off and go to my farm.

This is literally like being on prison for these people. The passengers in the inside cabins are in effect in solitary confinement. The crew BTW do not have quarters as big as most of the cabins and they frequently double and quadruple bunk in a crew cabin. They also have to feed and deal with the passengers sick or otherwise.

I suspect between the stress and worry about the virus coupled with the enforced confinement that there will likely be some mental breakdowns. Still in all reality the quarantine of the ship is the best way to contain these people if that is judged the correct course of action. Taking them off risks contamination at whatever site they occupy.

I suspect cruise line bookings are going to slammed with cancellations.

https://www.cruisecritic.com/news/5016/


Now this is interesting 21 cruise ships are affected. We see only the one in Yokahama since it is in port but others are at sea and have been refused entry into port.

https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Coron ... oronavirus
All 21 large cruise ships that have visited China since January remain in the Asia-Oceania region, and some have been unable to confirm their next port calls, a Nikkei analysis of tracking data shows. A few vessels apparently have nowhere to go after being rejected by more than one destination.

Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, the Philippines and Vietnam have all turned ships away.

Concerns about cruises becoming floating vehicles for the viral pneumonia have grown this week as Japan faced a mini-outbreak aboard a ship quarantined off Yokohama, near Tokyo. As of Friday morning, the number of infections found on the Diamond Princess was up to 61, after a startling surge of 41 from the previous day.

One of the ships now struggling to find a place to drop anchor is the Westerdam, operated by Holland America Line, a unit of U.S.-based Carnival.

The ship, which can carry about 1,960 passengers and about 800 crew members, left Hong Kong on Feb. 1, according to data provided by Refinitiv and Japan's IHI Jet Service. On Thursday, it came within 100 km of the port of Ishigaki in Okinawa but did not stop.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by Evan the Diplomat » Mon Feb 10, 2020 5:59 pm

Good evening, somebody at work shared an image from the website windy.com which purports to show sulfur dioxide, that is SO2, over China. There are massive spikes over Wuhan and Chong Ching two cities that used to have high speed rail connections five times a day.

Because I just got to my phone and have never used windy.com, I have no idea how to re-create the image. But what I saw was rather chilling.

You may be asking why sulfur dioxide? The fellow who shared the image said sulfur dioxide is a byproduct from cremation. I have no idea if sulfur dioxide is in fact a byproduct of cremation, or if it could be caused by the burning of pigs and or chickens, possible vessels of the current coronavirus.

I shall leave it to others on this forum to figure out how to get that image and post it. I’ve got to prepare for a Boy Scout troop meeting.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by raptor » Mon Feb 10, 2020 6:49 pm

Evan the Diplomat wrote:
Mon Feb 10, 2020 5:59 pm
Good evening, somebody at work shared an image from the website windy.com which purports to show sulfur dioxide, that is SO2, over China. There are massive spikes over Wuhan and Chong Ching two cities that used to have high speed rail connections five times a day.

Because I just got to my phone and have never used windy.com, I have no idea how to re-create the image. But what I saw was rather chilling.

You may be asking why sulfur dioxide? The fellow who shared the image said sulfur dioxide is a byproduct from cremation. I have no idea if sulfur dioxide is in fact a byproduct of cremation, or if it could be caused by the burning of pigs and or chickens, possible vessels of the current coronavirus.

I shall leave it to others on this forum to figure out how to get that image and post it. I’ve got to prepare for a Boy Scout troop meeting.
Thank you Good find!

The toggle:
https://www.windy.com/-SO2-mass-so2sm?s ... -170.068,4

Interesting Sulfur dioxide (SO2) is a byproduct of many combustible materials. It is also naturally occurring.

That said a common source of SO2 is coal combustion that could be include coal fired power plants. I guess they could also use coal for crematoriums. Also note that it is winter and fuel consumption for heating is likely high.

You look at it, the source does not look like it is centered over Wuhan.

As a frame of reference if you go look at the 4 corners area in the USA and Farmington NM there is not much there other several very large coal fired power plants. Granted they scrub SO2 but they are massive power plants that burn a huge amount of coal.

Still the air over the PRC looks really nasty not just due to SO2.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by norcalprep » Mon Feb 10, 2020 7:27 pm

raptor wrote:
Mon Feb 10, 2020 6:49 pm
Evan the Diplomat wrote:
Mon Feb 10, 2020 5:59 pm
Good evening, somebody at work shared an image from the website windy.com which purports to show sulfur dioxide, that is SO2, over China. There are massive spikes over Wuhan and Chong Ching two cities that used to have high speed rail connections five times a day.

Because I just got to my phone and have never used windy.com, I have no idea how to re-create the image. But what I saw was rather chilling.

You may be asking why sulfur dioxide? The fellow who shared the image said sulfur dioxide is a byproduct from cremation. I have no idea if sulfur dioxide is in fact a byproduct of cremation, or if it could be caused by the burning of pigs and or chickens, possible vessels of the current coronavirus.

I shall leave it to others on this forum to figure out how to get that image and post it. I’ve got to prepare for a Boy Scout troop meeting.
Thank you Good find!

The toggle:
https://www.windy.com/-SO2-mass-so2sm?s ... -170.068,4

Interesting Sulfur dioxide (SO2) is a byproduct of many combustible materials. It is also naturally occurring.

That said a common source of SO2 is coal combustion that could be include coal fired power plants. I guess they could also use coal for crematoriums. Also note that it is winter and fuel consumption for heating is likely high.

You look at it, the source does not look like it is centered over Wuhan.

As a frame of reference if you go look at the 4 corners area in the USA and Farmington NM there is not much there other several very large coal fired power plants. Granted they scrub SO2 but they are massive power plants that burn a huge amount of coal.

Still the air over the PRC looks really nasty not just due to SO2.
Hmm, that chart is pretty broad. It'll be hard to pinpoint anything specific. I looked it up, and I didn't realize how much coal is used in China!

China (2018): 4,640 million tons (https://chinapower.csis.org/energy-footprint/#toc-0)
USA (2018): 687 million short tons (623 metric tons)((https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/coa ... f-coal.php)

With so much coal consumed annually, even if China is using extra coal for crematoriums, I bet the extra SO2 is only negligibly more given the vast amounts of coal they consume annually anyways. I wonder if that windy site has any historic graphs. I wonder if the SO2 overlay from last year this time looks any different than the one right now.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by Evan the Diplomat » Mon Feb 10, 2020 7:50 pm

Those are all excellent questions to be asking. The image I saw was taken earlier on 10 February. The area over Wuhan was off the scale gray. One possible explanation is 10 February was the end of the extended Chinese new year. As a result if people were going back to work in the manufacturing sector that would cause the power plants to increase production burning more coal.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by raptor » Mon Feb 10, 2020 8:24 pm

In the US xoal is primarily used for power plants and cement kilns. In addition the SO2 is always scrubbed to some extent...normally a lot but not always.

In the PRC coal is used for practically any boiler type operation power plants, concrete kilns, steam heating plants, home heating, etc.Very few applications have any type of scrubbing.foe emmisions. They take the communist appeoach to such matters.

Their air quality is notoriously terrible.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by absinthe beginner » Mon Feb 10, 2020 8:45 pm

China’s Virus-Hit Cities Remain World’s Biggest Ghost Towns

https://news.yahoo.com/china-virus-stri ... 25619.html

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by RonnyRonin » Mon Feb 10, 2020 10:05 pm

Called up an old friend in tech that has some personal connections in China, his (completely anecdotal and heavily biased) take is that the locals feel its about 10x the official numbers on the low end, he has also reported fairly extensive disruption at his particular ($3 billion) company and that they will likely have sweeping policy changes going forward diversifying supply out of china after this.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by FlashDaddy » Mon Feb 10, 2020 11:07 pm

FlashDaddy wrote:
Mon Feb 10, 2020 5:33 am
97 new deaths reported by China in one day
https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsands ... oronavirus
Updated numbers at the link above;
Early Tuesday, China said there had been another 108 deaths, bringing the total number of deaths in China to 1,016, with 42,638 confirmed cases. There have been more than 300 other confirmed cases worldwide and one additional confirmed death outside of China.

Although so far the mortality rate for 2019-nCoV has proven far lower than for SARS — about 2% compared to around 10% — the new virus appears to have spread more rapidly than its earlier cousin.
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