COVID-19 Thread

Stuff that’s happening in the world that may pertain to our survival. Please keep political debates off the forum.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by Elusive Despot » Sun Feb 02, 2020 5:41 pm

Health Officials Confirm Second Case of Coronavirus in Bay Area
"This Santa Clara County case is not related to the first case but they both had recently traveled to Wuhan, China," officials said. "She is a visitor to this county and arrived January 23 to visit family."
https://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/local/s ... d/2225499/
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by absinthe beginner » Sun Feb 02, 2020 6:24 pm

Second Case Of Coronavirus Declared In California As NYT Suggests Pandemic

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ ... ne-housing

China Censors Top Local Media Outlet Over Claims Beijing Is Underreporting Cases, Deaths

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ ... and-deaths

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by RoneKiln » Sun Feb 02, 2020 6:31 pm

I thought somewhere in these last ten pages of posts that one of the articles alleged a Wuhan hospital had run out of key testing kits. Does that sound familiar to anyone else or is my aging memory playing tricks on me? A quick google search showed numerous articles about running out of protective gear, but nothing specifically about materials related to testing.

It's possible there's under reporting of deaths without it being an intentional government coverup. Pneumonia has also always been dangerous, and it's flu season there the same as elsewhere. They're also going to lose people to normal flu and pneumonia. Probably more than usual with their hospitals strained from dealing with this new disease.

I think on a global scale, the greater risk is economic. We're already in the vacinity of a peak market cycle, and this could contribute to or exacerbate the natural swing down into a valley in the cycle.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by MPMalloy » Sun Feb 02, 2020 6:44 pm


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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by Confucius » Sun Feb 02, 2020 8:05 pm

Another H2H transmission in the US, Husband to Wife again.

https://twitter.com/AaronGroffTV/status ... 3397550080


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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by MPMalloy » Sun Feb 02, 2020 8:19 pm

Bloomberg's Live 2019-nCoV Update page: China Vows to Support Market, U.S. Limits Flights: Virus Update

Nite all!

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by Aeacus » Mon Feb 03, 2020 12:03 am

RoneKiln wrote:
Sun Feb 02, 2020 6:31 pm
I thought somewhere in these last ten pages of posts that one of the articles alleged a Wuhan hospital had run out of key testing kits. Does that sound familiar to anyone else or is my aging memory playing tricks on me? A quick google search showed numerous articles about running out of protective gear, but nothing specifically about materials related to testing.

It's possible there's under reporting of deaths without it being an intentional government coverup. Pneumonia has also always been dangerous, and it's flu season there the same as elsewhere. They're also going to lose people to normal flu and pneumonia. Probably more than usual with their hospitals strained from dealing with this new disease.

I think on a global scale, the greater risk is economic. We're already in the vacinity of a peak market cycle, and this could contribute to or exacerbate the natural swing down into a valley in the cycle.
From the beginning there has been talk of limited test kits. China announced they had devised a new method and could make some large number of kits (maybe a week ago?) and the manufacturers pushed back on it then went very quiet. Below are a couple of articles that reference the shortages and the difficulty that places on knowing real numbers:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-chin ... SKBN1ZQ21K
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/02/worl ... wuhan.html
https://www.bioworld.com/articles/43274 ... oronavirus

Googling for "coronavirus test kit shortage" will pull up a lot more.

I would be amazed if the numbers were getting out of China are even close to accurate, even with the best intentions when the hospitals become swamped counting is problematic. And China has a bad record of forcefully keeping news positive. The fact that confirmed cases and deaths has stayed at an approximate 25% level per day increase make me think that there is a large amount of under reporting. Especially when combined with the quarantines and other extreme steps being taken. Also consider even if the mortality rate stays at 2-4% that will be a massive burden on the medical systems of most countries. For every person that dies, there are a couple more that get very sick but can recover with good medical treatment.

I'd be prepared for a pandemic as I don't see how this won't keep spreading. With cases already worldwide and in some vulnerable populations (India, probably Mexico with the guy who just showed up in LA from there), the cat is out of the bag for containment. We're trying to slow the spread now, not stop it. Buying time for research into treatment and vaccines. The economic hit will be real but I'm mostly checking my stock of medicines/masks/cleaning supplies/food right now. Being prepared to spend a significant time at your abode with minimal resupply runs.

Panic buying has already hit the mask market, evaluate your preps and make sure you have what you need. When the first random case shows up in the hospital in bad shape with no record of contact with anyone from traveling to China, I think we'll see more panic and runs on supplies.

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This Just in

Post by MPMalloy » Mon Feb 03, 2020 12:43 am

I'm not sure what to make of these:




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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by raptor » Mon Feb 03, 2020 11:19 am

I'm not sure what to make of these:
The phase you can tell a lot about about a person by the way they treat helpless creatures comes to mind.

Typically for a mass cull the animals are humanely euthanized before they are incinerated or buried.

I will leave it at that.


The other aspect is to remember that if & when things get bad the weak will always be sacrificed first. It will make no difference if the weak have feathers fur or skin. The justification that it is for the good of everyone else will be their mantra.
Prepare accordingly.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by the_alias » Mon Feb 03, 2020 12:36 pm

RoneKiln wrote:
Sun Feb 02, 2020 6:31 pm
I thought somewhere in these last ten pages of posts that one of the articles alleged a Wuhan hospital had run out of key testing kits. Does that sound familiar to anyone else or is my aging memory playing tricks on me? A quick google search showed numerous articles about running out of protective gear, but nothing specifically about materials related to testing.

It's possible there's under reporting of deaths without it being an intentional government coverup. Pneumonia has also always been dangerous, and it's flu season there the same as elsewhere. They're also going to lose people to normal flu and pneumonia. Probably more than usual with their hospitals strained from dealing with this new disease.

I think on a global scale, the greater risk is economic. We're already in the vacinity of a peak market cycle, and this could contribute to or exacerbate the natural swing down into a valley in the cycle.
Well also a bunch of stuff suggests possibility of false positives is pretty high as well.

Mass testing doesn't allow for retesting to get truly accurate numbers either
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by MPMalloy » Mon Feb 03, 2020 12:44 pm


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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by Aeacus » Mon Feb 03, 2020 2:37 pm

Extremely interesting discussion from some doctors on CNBC. I'd feel much better if more testing were being done stateside on pneumonia cases, right now it feels like we're concentrating too hard on the Chinese source. As this spreads, that will do less and less good. And it feels like it would have to explode in the US before we'd notice now. Maybe if the government is enacting these types of measures we could keep outbreaks here small...


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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by MPMalloy » Mon Feb 03, 2020 5:44 pm


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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by absinthe beginner » Mon Feb 03, 2020 6:25 pm

China Confirms 2,350 New Coronavirus Cases; Death Toll Climbs To 425

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ ... ong-closes

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by flybynight » Mon Feb 03, 2020 6:37 pm

Wuhan Coronavirus Looks Increasingly Like a Pandemic, Experts Say



https://www.yahoo.com/news/wuhan-corona ... 15086.html
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by flybynight » Mon Feb 03, 2020 6:55 pm

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps ... 7b48e9ecf6


It's showing 11 confirmed cases in the U. S now
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by raptor » Mon Feb 03, 2020 7:02 pm

flybynight wrote:
Mon Feb 03, 2020 6:55 pm
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps ... 7b48e9ecf6


It's showing 11 confirmed cases in the U. S now

Interesting thing about the US cases. Pre-virus there were direct flights to DC, Honolulu, Houston, Newark & Las Vegas none of these cities have reported cases as of yet. If you live in those cities plan accordingly.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by Evan the Diplomat » Mon Feb 03, 2020 7:08 pm

Here are a few updates. Some 330 South Korea’s were repatriated from Wuhan. Seven showed possible signs of infection.

The US, Pakistan, Indonesia, Thailand, and Australia are among several countries trying to figure out how to get their civilians out of Wuhan.

Two American citizens managed to hitch a ride on a German military aircraft and are under observation in Germany.

State department is going to be withdrawing another 80 personnel on ordered departure from various missions in China over the next two days.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by flybynight » Mon Feb 03, 2020 7:30 pm

the story of the tenth and eleventh cases



https://abcnews.go.com/International/1s ... d=68707431
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by MPMalloy » Tue Feb 04, 2020 12:34 am

From CNBC: Oil bear market deepens as OPEC talks emergency action to deal with coronavirus crisis

RC on the 'net says 2019-nCoV infected is at 20,000 & rising.

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Daily Dose of CrazyPants

Post by MPMalloy » Tue Feb 04, 2020 9:15 am




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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by the_alias » Tue Feb 04, 2020 11:04 am

I'd like to request less video posting from unverified sources - this isn't a Mod request but a personal one. They just don't seem productive or useful to me.

------------

That aside a few thoughts and observations.

Been noticing a few people on Twitter pointing out the infection rate is increasing inline with the fatality rate with remarkable coincidence.

People are screaming the Chinese aren't telling the full truth - 100% likely the case.

But what does it mean?

Is it that they just lack the ability to make diagnostic claims - if this is as virulent as people claim and it seems to be able to spread without symptoms and something like an R2.5 - R4 value then the cases could be higher - meaning the death rate is even lower as a %?

Are they hiding deaths?

Seems to me odd that on this https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps ... 7b48e9ecf6 there are so many deaths in Hubei but less elsewhere? Just a delay in the spread?

I'm still waiting for answers to following:

How long is average person sick for?

What is the accurate % estimate of people who need hospital treatment?

What % of those people who need the hospital treatment have underlying conditions? (diabetes, heart condition, lung problems)

Then there is this:...
Earlier the WHO reported that the virus was stable and there was no evidence it was mutating, but Chinese scientists have reported “striking” mutations between family members, the South China Post reports.

Researchers studying a cluster of infections within a family in the southern province of Guangdong said the genes of the virus went through some significant changes as it spread within the family.

Viruses mutate all the time, but most changes are synonymous or “silent”, having little effect on the way the virus behaves. Others, known as nonsynonymous substitutions, can alter biological traits, allowing them to adapt to different environments.

Two nonsynonymous changes took place in the viral strains isolated from the family, according to a new study by Professor Cui Jie and colleagues at the Institut Pasteur of Shanghai.

This case indicated “viral evolution may have occurred during person-to-person transmission”, they wrote in the paper published in the journal National Science Review on 29 January."
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by raptor » Tue Feb 04, 2020 1:47 pm

the_alias wrote:
Tue Feb 04, 2020 11:04 am
I
That aside a few thoughts and observations.

Been noticing a few people on Twitter pointing out the infection rate is increasing inline with the fatality rate with remarkable coincidence.

People are screaming the Chinese aren't telling the full truth - 100% likely the case.

But what does it mean?

Is it that they just lack the ability to make diagnostic claims - if this is as virulent as people claim and it seems to be able to spread without symptoms and something like an R2.5 - R4 value then the cases could be higher - meaning the death rate is even lower as a %?

Are they hiding deaths?

Seems to me odd that on this https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps ... 7b48e9ecf6 there are so many deaths in Hubei but less elsewhere? Just a delay in the spread?
Agreed to all but in response to the above.

My opinion (not fact) is that there are still many unknowns and like any large scale incidents it is too soon to know a lot of the truth. Even if the PRC was 100% forthcoming with all data (not saying they are or are not) IMO the data would be incomplete and inaccurate based upon the rapidly changing situation.

That is the trouble with an incident like this. Raw data is easy to get and comes in fast and at best it is 50/50 even partially correct. Then later conflicting data casts a negative light on the previous data to the point any dats coming is suspect. Then there is the natural tendency to sit on it until the situation is clarified. Then they are said to be withholding data due to the delay....(BTW I find this ironic; me justifying the PRC :clownshoes:)

So in conclusion IMO the PRC is with 99.9999% probability withholding data. I think they lack the tools to make claims reliably and that they are hiding deaths. That said I think this true simply due more to the magnitude of the issue and the newness of the coronavirus. In other words incompetence as oppose to malice. This incompetence makes deceit more likely to avoid embarrassment.


Closer to home I noticed the US cases remain at 11 and none in several cities with direct flights to the PRC. I am still scratching my head at the good fortune.

That and Africa and South America have no reports. Though the Canary Islands has a reported case.

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